DanLarsen34

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This is worth noting.

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This might be the biggest outbreak of the year when all is set and done, with several strong/intense tornadoes.


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2 parts:
1) Kind of surprised it wasn't PDS tagged given probabilities
2) Apple size? Was hoping for something more outlandish, like DVDs

I had this same thought. We used to get PDS watches virtually every moderate risk day, but that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Seems odd not to have gone with PDS language given the high-end environment in place.


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One of the craziest tornado videos you’ll ever see.

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This may very well have been a violent tornado. The motion in this clip from Reed Timmer is insane.

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This storm is behaving a lot like the Wynnewood storm did several years ago. Think we’re about to see a cycle on it too.

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I’m seeing mixed evidence of a tornado on Twitter skimming videos. It’s been really difficult to tell if this thing is on the ground too because of the distance it is from both radars. 

 

 

Cell to the south near Palmer, IA looks like it’s about to go nuts 

 

 

50 minutes ago, Quincy said:

I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that there’s initiation up and down the dryline on Tuesday, but I think there’s a strong possibility that the cap is at least locally breached. Any sustained storms that can form will have the potential to produce very large hail and tornadoes.

I can envision a scenario where most areas see nothing, but one or two intense supercells form.

The Euro has been very consistent with convective initiation. The NAM doesn’t convect, but point forecast soundings only show minimal capping. It wouldn’t take much modification at all to break the cap and produce a few intense storms, per NAM progs. 

Not comparing these two setups when I say this, but I believe we had a similar issue in modeling in the the build-up to 4-14-2012 where some models were initiating no convection align the dry line despite minimal capping. 

This is worth noting. 

 

The signal for discrete/semi-discrete cells is there for the southern end of the line. 

 

Why on earth was the Round Rock storm not warned until now? It might have produced a major tornado. 

 

This is a really good thread.  I didn’t know about this quote from the Vilonia survey until now. 

 

 

Counterpoint to our discussion here that really hits at a major problem. 

This is shocking. If Jarrell is the standard we are now using to judge EF-5 ratings, we may literally never see an EF-5 rating again. Jarrell caused arguably the most complete destruction we’ve ever seen.