EMontpelierWhiteout

Always love the feeling of anticipation ahead of the first big snowstorm. My wife being a teacher, even get that nostalgic feeling waiting to see school closing list expand each time you check. Love to see models consolidating around Boston to Cape Cod track. And the front end thumps with these type of storms can be awesome.

1 1/4 here. Nice to see it looking wintery again. Hoping that Friday event delivers. Dynamics look good but temps may be a problem for part of the event. Anyway, NWS Burlington getting excited.

I love it when forecasters let their love of snow show through… Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 322 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A potent storm system will impact the region tonight through Saturday night with moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Gusty winds are expected Saturday night and Sunday morning as well which will create areas of blowing snow and possibly some power outages. Winds will abate Sunday afternoon with a warming trend expected through next week and temperatures approaching 60 degrees by the end of the week. No significant precipitation events are expected after the Saturday snowstorm. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 319 PM EST Friday...Bottom line up front...Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect across the entire region for tonight through the first half of Saturday night with a widespread moderate to heavy 6-12" of snow expected. Unless you live under a rock, you`ve likely read about this storm several times over the past few days. So with that in mind, I`m going to skip a lot of the synoptic overview and mesoscale details this afternoon and just get down to brass tax and talk about what`s changed, the expected amounts, and impacts. So what`s changed. Synoptically not much. Trends from yesterdays guidance for a delayed phasing of a northern stream trough and southern stream energy continued into the 00Z NWP model suite, and with the 12Z runs everything is basically locked into the slightly eastward shift we talked about yesterday. But now that we`re into the wheelhouse of higher resolutions models, we`re able to put some more detail into the forecast, specifically the QPF which is good and bad if you`re a snow lover or not. Since I`m a snow lover, I`m going to say more snow is good, less is bad. So where are the goods? Eastern Vermont and the northwest slopes of the Green Mountains continue to be the bullseye for moderate to heavy snow as low/mid-level frontogenetical forcing will be maximized here Saturday afternoon within the northwest quadrant of the surface low bombing out over Cape Cod. This is shown nicely in the SPC HREF snowfall rates which highlights several hours of 1-2"/hr from about noon through 4 PM. Additionally, when the flow shifts to the northwest Saturday evening and overnight, favorable blocking will allow upslope snow to persist and decrease in density adding on additional accumulations into Sunday morning. A widespread 8-14" is expected across this area, with locally up to 20" across the higher peaks from Appalachian Gap to the Canadian border. And what about the bad you ask? Well, based on the latest trends we`ve had to adjust QPF and subsequent snowfall amounts down the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. For the St. Lawrence, with the eastward low track and a tighter precipitation gradient it`s only looking like about a half inch of QPF there for the event, resulting in snow totals of around 6" to maybe 8" where the terrain begins to slope upward to the Adirondacks. In the Champlain Valley, a faster shift to northwesterly flow results in some downsloping and also lower QPF of about 1/3 to 2/3 of an inch. The greatest downsloping will occur on the NY side of the valley and in Grand Isle county where storm total snow will range from 6-8", while 6-10" is more likely on the VT side. Finally, the bad for everywhere will be the winds. As snowfall begins to taper off from west to east Saturday evening gusty winds will develop as a strong low-level jet materializes over the region and the atmosphere becomes deeply mixed. Forecast soundings continue to indicate mean mixed layer winds of 30-40kts resulting in surface gusts at a minimum of 30 mph and more likely closer to 40 mph for many locations. Blowing snow will become a big concern for those traveling Saturday evening through Sunday morning given these conditions and for a short period late Saturday afternoon into the evening dare I say near blizzard conditions may be seen with visibility less than a half mile. Power outages also remain a concern, especially across the lower Connecticut River Valley where heavy wet snow will be seen but based on the latest trends of lighter snow for the latter half of the event, thinking only isolated outages look more likely now.

The snow is only fake if you don’t get it…

Dime size flakes predominant here right now. Nice surprise.

Really nice steady light snow right now with decent flakes.

BTV discussion paints a pretty dicey situation for Friday morning commute with heavy precipitation in transition through ice to snow with rapid temperature drop. Trending colder.

Final measurement from long duration storm this morning of 2” of fluff for total from changeover on Thursday of 17-1/4”. Loved this storm.

Leg burner today for sure. Nice storm.

2:15 measurement. Another 2-1/4” since 6:00 am. Total storm so far 13-1/2”. I honestly think there is more new snow here than there was at the mountain (Stowe) today.

7” new since 10:45 last night for average 1”/hr rates. Storm total 11-1/4”. Still dumping. Schools off, powder day!

Let’s hope it’s a new trend.

Pretty rare to see Montpelier as the high total expected for highlighted cities/towns.

3-1/4 inch new since 6:15. 4-1/4” storm total. Heavy snow now and flake size has increased. Beautiful out there.

Thanks for the more detailed analysis. Glad to see the mountain has gotten a great start on some big snows.

That does seem suspect. Based on Cam footage at the stake on Mansfield it looked like 4+ inches as of 6:30. No storm related reason why they would be so different.

About 1-inch down. Maybe closing in on moderate snow. Thumping comes later this evening..

Here too, about 10 minutes ago. Temp per my car gauge just prior was reading 37, but must be reading a little high.

Initial thump from that storm was perfect snow crystals, like 10” in 3 hours. I remember snowshoeing in it and realizing we were in for a big one.

It will be nice to see some warmer temps just for a break. Been slamming through our pellet supply in the garage. Since MLK it has been really nice winter feel and look here with snow depth adequate and condition staying nice and powdery. Event later in the week looking good.

Glad to hear the back end of the storm has performed for NH forum members. Nary a flake here all day. Enjoyed following coverage of Eastern MA drubbing.

Fates will line up for you at some point. NNE definitely losing out on this one. Have not seen one flake here today, just a bone chilling wind.

Only sign of storm up here is freshening winds. Living vicariously through those south and east.

Storms weakening.

Thanks for the link. I love Reed’s enthusiasm.