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George BM

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Posts posted by George BM

  1. 17 minutes ago, Kay said:

    It can be fraught when we weenies discuss what and when is good weather and bad weather, but it's also very entertaining :D

    dude the scope and thoroughness of your obs/records for your location is always impressive.

    It honestly amazes me how @wxdude64 has kept at it consistently since October 1979. True dedication.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    On 4/19/2022 at 2:35 PM, csnavywx said:

    Yep, it's been a thing for several years. You're not the only one:

    TLDR: A bit of reasoned speculation, but probably due to downstream effects of rapid warming in the North Pacific. Looks like a transient decadal response to me.

    This is just a hypothesis of mine and I have no evidence whatsoever to back this up but... this recent trend of a colder pattern for the northern US and Canada come springtime. There are studies showing that the stratosphere is becoming colder (and stronger?) on average during the winter as the troposphere warms. Ex: This past February saw the coldest 50mb temps on record in the stratosphere over the high latitudes. I wonder whether the colder SPV during the winter allows it to survive longer (on average) towards spring without a significant disruption until the sun angle increases forcing it to weaken anyway. When it finally does weaken it may affect the troposphere and lead to more high-latitude blocking depending on how dramatic the disruption and/or SPV split is. 

    Of course, the SPV and TPV are not always connected as seen earlier this winter and many other times in the past. Also, one could argue that there isn't enough data yet to know for sure how climate change is affecting the SPV/TPV. Like I said... just a hypothesis of mine. I have no concrete evidence to back it up.  

    • Like 2
  3. 1 minute ago, hstorm said:

    No idea if it's accurate, but Dulles reported a rain/snow mix at 4pm 

    I saw a few mangled wet snowflakes and ice pellets mixed in w/ the rain att in Herndon. 

  4. I wonder if some of us see some hail/gusty winds later with any convection/storms that manage to develop in the region. MLLRs will be fairly steep w/ 500mb temps of -20 to -22C. LLLRs look to be very steep as well. Weak instability (MLCAPE generally less than 500J/kg) owing to fairly low dews (45-50F) while a limiting factor may be slightly offset by the very steep LLLRs. Not expecting anything too crazy. Maybe some gusty winds and some hail like I mentioned.

  5. 2 minutes ago, yoda said:

    Afternoon extended AFD from LWX is... lovely :axe:

    Conditions may potentially turn active again on Monday as a complex
    storm system approaches the area. A weak disturbance in the southern
    stream, may potentially phase with a much more potent trough
    approaching within northwesterly flow in the northern stream and
    form a coastal low. There`s a fair amount of spread with with
    respect to how this interaction will occur, and what our ultimate
    forecast will look like, but at this point it`s safe to say that
    there will be at least some chance for rain across the area late
    Sunday night through Monday. Precipitation may even linger into
    Tuesday, depending on how things unfold. Temperatures should run
    well below normal, and some snow may even be able to mix in with the
    rain in the mountains. We`ll continue to monitor the forecast for
    this system as we move closer in time.

    CAPE is very pleased about this.

  6. 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    If we’re talking about those features, they’re called whatever my wife wants me to spend money on :lol: 

    That was the deal. She drives during the chases and I pay for whatever food she wanted. Great compromise. 

    Oh wow. Both of you chasing. That's a nice duo between you and your wife.

    • Like 2
  7. 11 hours ago, WxUSAF said:



    11 hours ago, [email protected] said:

    Boom!  Thunder. 


    11 hours ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

    That scared the bejeezus out of me 


    11 hours ago, high risk said:

           Yeah, the only strike in the entire area was in Howard County.      #winning


    23 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

    That seemed to come out of nowhere. Really long rumble, too.

    The bolt was a powerful 194kA positive CG. Lots of jumps, yelps and/or more personal "events" were probably had by peeps in the strike region... especially with no previous bolt to signify lightning in the area. 


    • Like 2
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