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George BM

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    Weather Event of 2023 in your POV

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    A little late but I'll just get right into it.

     

    1.) I'd have to pick to April 1st wind event. Got a couple of NW gusts that night to near 60mph which took out a 15-20ft section of the fence IMBY.

    2.) Severe thunderstorm w/ quarter to ping pong ball sized hail, torrential rains and gusty winds on July 14th. The largest hail that I've personally seen in my lifetime so far.

    3.) Peak severe season or rather Canadian smoke season as it turned out to be. Just a strangely quiet May/June severe season locally with smoke (whether elevated or at the surface) seemingly every other day. If we got hit the way NYC got hit on June 7th this would probably rank 2nd or possibly 1st place for me.

     

    Curious in reading your thoughts about 2023 below... if y'all aren't too busy tracking our next winter threat. ^_^

    • Like 1

    Tuesday, January 9 Rain and Wind Storm

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

    Just for fun, the wind accumulation product from Windy provides the peak modeled wind gust.  Let's see how they do at DCA:

    NAM 3k (06z):  57mph

    HRRR (13z):  60mph (!)

    GFS (06z):  63mph

    Euro (06z):  49mph

    ICON (06z):  54mph

    Hmmm... HRRR w/ 60mph gusts... interesting. Doubt we gust THAT high locally (stable-layer limiting mixing near the surface, as I know you know) but interesting nonetheless. 

    Mid-Atlantic Snow Totals Thread - Winter 2023-2024

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    12/06/2023: T (brief light graupel (~2:25pm))

    12/11/2023: 0.9" ( Fairly heavy wet snow overnight... heaviest between 2:45 and 3:35am)

    1/01/2024: T (Flurries w/ some graupel from late morning into the afternoon before changing to very light rain/drizzle)

    1/06/2024: T (Morning sleet w/ few flakes before changing into a cold soaking afternoon rain)

    2023-2024 winter total as of Jan 6, 2024: 0.9"

    January 2024 Banter

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    "As this great new year of 2023 begins let it be a year of rewarding yourselves, even if it's a small reward, whenever you make a breakthrough with a goal or a dream that you have. Take great care of yourselves this year and don't be afraid to try that one thing or those things that you've wanted to try out for a long while." 

    Happy New Years! Hopefully you had a great 2023 and treated yourselves a bit. Here's to a great and blessed 2024.

    • Like 5

    December Discobs 2023

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Tonights sunset was the earliest of the year. The sun set at 4:47pm est at IAD (time at which 100% of the sun disappears beyond the horizon). Starting tomorrow the sun will start slowly setting later giving us more evening light. 

    • Like 7
    • Sad 1

    2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

    Pencil thin convective potential on Sunday? GFS gets marginal supercell composite parameters into the area. Nothing super severe - but could be a bit of "interesting" weather more than just fog and rain and sun. 

    A MRGL wouldn't surprise me if wind fields are strong enough and the pencil thin-line can tap into that wind aloft.

    December Banter 2023

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, Jebman said:

    On January 18, 2024 a storm began developing in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It brought 3-6 inches of rain to central Texas. The immediate Gulf Coast was treated to severe thunderstorms. The storm moved slowly east, dumping rain all along the Gulf Coast States as it lumbered toward the Mid Atlantic, drawing in copious amounts of Gulf then Atlantic moisture. The developing storm pulled moisture all the way from Panama. The northern periphery of the precip shield began to mix with sleet pellets. There was so damn much moisture with this system, that parts of northern Alabama got socked with three inches of sleet! The rain became torrential in Louisiana, then in coastal Mississippi, Alabama. There were numerous water rescues. The storm dumped 17 inches of rain in Biloxi! Gulf thunderstorms trained and trained for hours!

    It was frigid cold in the northern US. Northern Virginia was in the low teens for high temperatures, and lows near zero, to five below. Northerly winds froze everything. Surface frigidization was assured IF snow ever fell, but most weather enthusiasts had given up hope that it would ever snow again in the Washington Metropolitan Region. The northern edges of the precip shield mixed with snow, and the snow began to tease the millions of snow weenies in the eastern US. Models had been hinting at this megalithic storm for an incredible 22 days in advance. The NHEM was in the grip of a moderate to strong El Nino but it was a very unusual Nino indeed. Many of the metrics were way off, leaving veteran forecasters scratching their heads in frustration. No one really knew what this Nino would do in the Northern Hemisphere and in the CONUS.

    As the time drew nearer, weather enthusiasts particularly in the Mid Atlantic but also in the New England regional subforums, were beginning to get very enthusiastic about the storm. Some of the models were printing out unbelievable amounts of snowfall! There was already a prevailing party kind of atmosphere in the Mid Atlantic sub. Posters were trying to outdo each other with regard to the Scraff Beer Fridge Index, pictures were all over the forum and some were even going viral as some had been posted on YouTube. 

    The storm got even stronger as it approached Florida. Thunderstorms battered the hell out of western FL and many one-day rain records were broken. Then it crossed the FL/GA coastline. The models started hinting at an out to sea solution, precipitating one of the greatest outbreaks of epic meltdown ever seen particularly in the Mid Atlantic sub. Feathery cirrus had begun developing over Washington DC even as high temperatures struggled to climb out of the teens! Then, the beautiful cirrus drifted southeast. The huge storm drifted off the north FL coast then kind of drifted slowly around. Model runs were all over the place as the weather subforums went absolutely bonkers! Graphics depicting posters jumping off sharp cliffs became unbelievably innovative! Jebman got perilously close to jumping and begged for The Reaper to come out of retirement for a couple of days lol. Jeb had flown to north Virginia for the storm. The forums became absolutely unreadable and mods had their work cut out for them just trying to keep up with all the crazy posts! Because of the storm, thousands of new posters had joined AmWx in the past couple of weeks! Hundreds of newbies were clamoring to know how much snow would fall in their backyards lol. Mets were overwhelmed, especially after nearly all the models went south, no snow at all for Washington DC, not even a damn flurry! It was starting to look like 2001 all over again! WxRisk was still WOOFing though. Webberweather was cautioning everyone to calm down and keep an eye on the storm.

    The storm wandered around in its pen, so to speak, off the northern Florida coast. The pattern was hard to read, especially with this unusual El Nino. There was blocking. Every snow weenie in the entire eastern North American region prayed for the storm to please come back. It was freezing cold in the Mid Atlantic. Ski resorts like Wisp were furiously making snow in the cold weather.

    Nearly all the models were still insisting an out to sea solution. But PSU was one of the first to notice a northwest movement of the precip shield in the southeast. Then the feathery cirrus came back up from the southeast. A massive Redemption topic was opened by Stormtracker since a lot of "dead" weenies who jumped were gonna want to be "resurrected" for the storm lol. Rains increased in Georgia, then mixed with sleet in upstate South Carolina. It changed to snow in the southern Appalachians and promptly became heavy! TV Mets in the DC region cautiously began to suggest a chance of some snow was back in the forecast. Many had been burned by the earlier model runs depicting a monster snow incoming. The storm was forecast to maybe bring some snow to the DC area about the early hours of Jan 22.

    Jeb took a leisurely jebwalk on the so-called Outer Rim, he walked around the entirety of Potomac Mills Mall in Woodbridge, savoring the frigid air, it was 13/-4 with a nice refreshing northeasterly wind. The cirrus were thickening, even as ENE winds were slowly picking up. As the day wore on, the winds began to become more NNE. A thick cirrostratus layer developed and temps fell to 10 above! Jeb ran for sheer joy! It was a 1.75 mile jebwalk and Jeb savored this immensely! He'd walked this as Isabel had moved in in 2003!

    The southern Apps were already impassable. Snow was piling up! North Carolina saw some rain than changed to sleet then to snow. That snow became heavy at times as incredible amounts of moisture interacted with the frigid air! It was a massive Wall of Snow and the forums were really on fire as many people joined up then participated in paeans of happiness and utter ecstasy over one of the most exciting blizzards in memory!

    Local forecasters in the Washington DC area were calling for a few inches of snow. Then it changed to 6-12 inches, then to 12-18 inches. Food stores were rampaged. The water was gone. Most foods were gone in hours. So many people living in one region simply emptied the stores in a day. Fast food outlets were overwhelmed.

    Jeb had a modern 5G tablet. He knew all this. His grin broadened. This was going to be sheer fun! A dark layer of altostratus dimmed out the sun. It moved with menacing rapidity! Then the column began to moisten up. The surface air layer was dry as a martini but with all that moisture, the snow reached the ground soon enough. North Carolina was getting snow rates so heavy, most of I-95 there was getting impassable. There were thousands of fender benders and people soon got snowed in bad. It was already turning into the makings of a humanitarian crisis and Jeb was so damn happy! Fifty nine years old now, and still worshipped snow! Jeb breathed in the ten degree air gratefully! It smelled absolutely victorious! Nice and cold, straight from Siberia, and unimaginable snow was on the way! Jeb continued his jebwalk, blasted all the decades of tracks that reminded him of the snow, even some Mexican tracks and even tracks from India and from Thailand!!! All these highly eclectic music tracks now reminded Jeb deeply of the snow, even as he happily noted the first flurries! INSTANT SURFACE FRIGIDIZATION, Jeb exulted, as he let out one hell of a HEARTFELT WOOOO-HOOOOO!!!! The flurries were sticking on the pavement and on the grass, on car tops, FROM FLAKE 1! And why shouldn't it? It is ONLY 10 degrees! That NNE wind was blowing the flurries along the street! This is gonna be FUN when it gets dark! That NE wind will blow those snow hydrometeors right past the streetlights! The street and grass will probably cave about the same time lol!

    Flights at Washington National and Dulles were beginning to be cancelled. There was a lot of overflow from the Carolinas, there was already a couple of wind driven feet of snow in South Carolina and North Carolina was going down the same glidepath lol. Governor of North Carolina declared a State of Emergency in North Carolina. Washington DC was under a WSW for 12 to 24 inches of snow. The skies over Dale City were getting pretty dark as the cloud decks got markedly lower and steadier snow developed on a strengthening east-northeast to north-northeast wind. Radars were deep blue with a hell of a LOT of snow northwest bound! Worse, the forward movement of the storm was slowing. Uh-oh.......

    On the weather forums, Typhoon Tip was posting some of his best work that had ever been seen. 40/70 Benchmark was on a magnificent roll as well and he and PSU were having a brilliant disco about the evolution of the storm and what might happen in the next week. The forecast was for snow, lots of it and the storm was showing distinct signs of getting captured, in a location which would serve as a kind of 40/70 Benchmark for the DC Region lol. It was going to get very very windy, serious, serious drifting and remain quite cold. Very high rates of snow accumulation were expected to develop and obtain for a rather long time, over several forecasting periods as defined in various Area Forecast Discussions.

    PSU got his inch of snow. The flurries developed rapidly, spread over the entire region, accompanied by a very low layer of scudding clouds. Then it became steady, steady snow that then became moderate at times and began piling up! NE winds were freshening, gusting to about 25-30mph and that wind blew that snow around, along streets and sidewalks and off roofs, to the utter unimaginable delight of many a snow weenie! The snow geese were getting fed at long last and there was a hell of a lot more to come! It was just CRRAZY! on the forums! There was no question now about what was gonna fall in anyone's backyard! DC'ers knew they were gonna get annihilated by snow! Major highways were getting slippery as hell! It was only ten degrees out and surface frigidization was rampant everywhere! Roads caved in then snow piled up then the crashes began. Then millions of people began to get hopelessly STUCK in an unimaginable snowmageddon! It got so damn slippery, and the visibilities got shot straight to frigid hell because of wind blown snow, snow blown by 35 mph gusts at times, snow picked up from the ground and from the tops of buildings and from falling snow that became so damned heavy! At times, it was like a milkshake froth! It was like being caught out in a severe lake effect band! Non existent visibility, and drivers cant see a damn thing, and this in dim daylight!

    Jeb was having the time of his life in the snow! It was getting windier and it seemed colder too. That wind was blowing the snow all over! It was getting pretty heavy at times by now and the clouds were getting darker and visibility was getting difficult to come by! Jeb was forced to walk backwards against some of the stronger wind gusts! It was getting heavy enough and windy enough that it was getting hard to see the nearby lights! It was time to find shelter. he headed for the mall. Out of luck, CLOSED. Damn. Its cold as fook out here! Jeb banged on the door but the place was already closed up. Damn panickers, Jeb thought, these ppl don't know how to deal with snow. Hell it was only prolly a couple of inches deep. Jeb checked out the latest AFD.

    WOW. State of Emergency in Va and the District and the ENTIRE DelMarVa region. No wonder things are locked down. Jeb was cold. He loved snow and vodka cold but this was getting interesting right now. You.got.to.be. kidding. 20-30 inches in N Va? I have got to get back to the hotel NOW! Just then, a massive gust, laden with snow, damn near knocked Jeb down. Man, I am getting too damn OLD for this stuff. Should have just retired from snow chasing and stayed in Texas lol.

     

     

     

    **********************************************

    Okay GeorgeBM. I am nowhere as good as you at depicting a snowstorm. I dont know atmosphere mechanics like you do, and I am sure no forecaster, wannabe or not. But by not submitting a storm, you forced my hand lol. My knowledge of weather is non existent. I don't know an h5 pressure surface from a baroclinic leaf.

     

    More later, I like this little storm.

     

     

     

     

    ...You're a very good storyteller.

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