George BM

45 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

July total: 2.52” 

High: 99.5

Low: 61.0

Wow. IAD w/ more than twice that (5.09") just miles away. Hope you get more hits this month.

Welcome to the second hottest month of the year. Dewpoints currently in the 50s.

Today:

Partly sunny early, then clouds increasing late w/ a few showers possible. Record high temperatures expected. High 73. Winds SSW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Tonight:

Showers and thundershowers early, then a steady soaking rain overnight. Some snow or sleet may mix in late. Low near 35. SSW winds at 10 to 20 mph shifting to NE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90%. Rainfall possibly over one inch.

Monday:

A wind-driven heavy snow throughout the day with blizzard conditions expected. Thunder possible. A morning high of 34 with temps falling into the lower 20s by the afternoon. Winds N at 25 to 40 mph. Snow accumulations of 18 to 24 inches expected. Winds could occasionally gust over 50 mph.

Monday Night:

Windy. Snow showers early, then skies clearing overnight. Low near 10. Winds NW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of snow 60%. Snow accumulations of less than one inch.

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

96/96/97

Yeap. Good call. Funny enough it was IAD that would take the triple 98s.

Some of you folks probably got verified severe winds(50+kts) from storms two days in a row.

Just now, yoda said:

70mph gusts now per warning

Lansdowne and Belmont getting spanked by a microburst(?). Some 60-70mph pixels from TIAD radar there.

IAD up to 98/75.

Severe thunderstorm watch until 9pm.

97/72 at IAD.

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Good lightning show off to my NE - some nice cloud to grounders. But quiet, not windy, pretty tame rain. Waiting for the hurricane in October

A Hazel redux would sure be fun.

...

IAD down to 77/72 w/ light rain.

Mammatus clouds overhead in Herndon right now.

98/72 for the 3pm obs at IAD.

98F at IAD.

IAD up to 97F.

IAD up to 95/72 as of 2:29pm.

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Also, 18z NAM has some nice soundings and parameters for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night 

Yeah Saturday... I've been keeping an eye on that. At least Heat Advisory level heat, decent CAPE, some fun looking sim radar reflectivity on a few models ("Oh Canada!")... Ultimately, ingredients are in place should there be storms.

47 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Got just 0.1” yesterday. I expect actual highs to overperform forecasts as has been the trend all July. May even hit 100 while wetter locations top out at 98 this week. 

Wonder if this is of of those heatwaves where IAD and BWI both hit 100F while DCA falls just short.

Wonder if we can get some W/NW flow action late this week and/or this weekend as a few models are hinting at.

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

12z NAM nest goes kind of bonkers for parts of the area tomorrow afternoon - even has intense UH tracks over parts of the area. The other guidance is less impressive...but the FV3 is pretty good too. 

SLGT risk introduced for tomorrow east of the mountains. T/W/H 0/15/15

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Hmmm I will be at Kitty Hawk NC wonder what that would look like there?

Fun.

Down to 61F at IAD.

That was a decent storm in my neighborhood during the 5pm hour. Had off and on hail for a good 20 minutes w/ gusty winds and torrential rain. The hail looked to be around quarter to half-dollar sized (1"-1.25" in diameter). Some leaves stripped off of trees courtesy of the hail.

Herndon, VA.

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I know it's like my favorite word on here - but ANECDOTALLY - I've found that in many "significant severe" events locally - at least for MBY - if we can get a really good wind core or line to go through roughly Winchester - the odds are pretty good for MBY. I like the current radar trends but the threat for stuff dying on approach is still high in my mind. 

July 25, 2010 comes to mind very readily - that was a big time power outage producer in the area. 

Just about my favorite event experienced pre-derecho. Lots of 80-90+mph gusts in Montgomery county and northside/north of the DC beltway IIRC.

Today's local airport highs:

IAD: 96F

DCA: 94F

BWI: 96F

IAD w/ 96F for a daily high.