Wetbulbs88

The dryslot is just a killer

Definitely not over either

I'm back down in DC these days...back to the same old situation, sitting twenty miles E/SE of the 32 line. How's it going in the city proper? Any Harlemites? Looks like a killer dry slot, yeesh.

They forgot to add that the GFS is Also just an inferior model lol

You’re just torturing yourself by continuing to track solutions that will inevitably change very drastically. It’s definitely overly simplistic. If this were the case we wouldn’t be able to predict anything. This. The old patterns we’ve used To track storms are simply an evolution of even older patterns we used to track storms. We’ll continue to update our indicators and metrics as the science/atmosphere evolved. That’s the beauty of forecasting: it’ll never be boring. More than anything, there are a lot of similarities between forecasting and investing in how our emotions affect our outlook. Two dud winters in a row is FAR from anomalous, and any mention that NY is the new VA simply laughable. Yes, there is an evolution to our climate, this is absolutely inevitable with or without greenhouse gas; and yes, greenhouse gas is likely adding another variable to that evolution. But before these two years we were talking about NY being the new Buffalo. It’s the same shortsightedness that makes for overreactive long term predictions. We don’t know how the climate will evolve, and that’s almost as much as we can say, except that indications point toward more extremes, in almost every sense. This might lead to more absolute winters—more consistent cold and snow, or warmth and dry. Who knows.

Any possibility it’s chasing convection lol?

Lol yeah it was just super quiet in here. That being said, I’m not totally out yet. I’ve seen this movie too many times not to know that with this many pieces of energy in play, the models will have a tough time. That being said again, I’m markedly bearish on this one lol. Edit: I also still think the surface isn’t being depicted as anything close to making sense. The precip shield evolution between frames 63 and 66 doesn’t seem possible.

So the NAM is interesting...

Okay then why did you come to the very specific conclusion that you came to?

This is why it’s pointless to cling to any one or couple elements of a setup, in any setup. Gotta take in the big picture and experience.

I’m on my phone but gfs looks like a marginal improvement. Not enough to excite. Correct me if I’m wrong.

Regardless of what type or storm or trend, what he’s saying is that the models are having trouble. That itself moves storms around as we track.

At hour 63 the two streams are beginning to interact and then the NAM basically loses it. It still isn’t close to resolving this.

Who cares?

18z NAM another improvement. the surface depiction makes almost zero sense so I wouldn’t hang on to that.

I guess no one was optimistic following the gfs/cmc 12z? SNE thread a lot noisier.

Lol do you have time to breathe between vacillating opinions?

Yeah and this also really limits the upside of this event. As usual this year we’re begging for crumbs. Best case scenario the two vorts phase and slow this thing down just enough in the right place.

Yeah looking at the setup now I’m more confident something interesting will develop even if only for tracking purposes

Euro?

That’s very true and what I was just looking at. Anyone got a good scientific explanation for why that northern energy is ducking our system?

There isn’t a consensus, just a series of off the coast solutions. The solutions themselves have significant variation. And no, they’re not just guessing, but they’re far less accurate than they’ll be once samples on land.

Never gets old seeing how many people need to feel a sense of certainty when participating in a hobby of inherent uncertainty.

Anyone got a Euro?

I haven’t even bothered measuring. I haven’t decided what counts for accumulation here, in my heart at least. I’ve always been a stalwart for the driven street, but it’s painful hoping for it to stick sometimes.