Wetbulbs88

Congrats. You’re broadcasting to everyone precisely how awful your life is. Worse than that that you’re not even accurate. Why is this dude still allowed here? He offers absolutely nothing.

Wish it was the NAM but even that showed improvements. Baltimore is damn close to something halfway special though.

Yeah we just had a great suite of runs. I don’t think another couple inches is even improbable for most of us. And with the placement of the low some of us could be in for some surprises. The children are really separated from the adults when a storm doesn’t go beyond our expectations. And most of us here have gotten pretty much what was forecast. Let’s get back to having fun and ignoring the a-holes who show their face just to screw with people.

It's been snowing for 18 hours and we have 3 inches? Can confirm

You’ll learn over time what you can use and what’s just a garbage tool meant for entertainment. Have to read between the lines.

Yeah not for one moment did I think we’d touch 40. Didn’t even think we’d rain. I might be right in the end we’ll see.

I’ve gotten three inches. I’m one from my forecast range. Didn’t think we had red tag trolls here.

Okay, guess we’ll see. Of course you have no defined limits of what I’m hoping for and vs what a pipe dream is, so you’d never admit your own error. Pointless to even try to discuss.

Not gonna boast but I want it noted that I stuck with my gut that there would be surprises tonight. Not exactly the contrarian call of the century but I’m telling you these Miller Bs are almost impossible to pin down.

Absolutely. The precip shield was less favorable but that means nothing to me now. The low is far more tucked. This should be interesting. I think my area is probably going to get fringed but you might be in a better spot. In general, Baltimore and NE should definitely be interested by now. Gotta be prepared to wait out these lulls while the real thing gets its act together.

This storm is still far from organized. We have a long way to go. We were never going to be in the jackpot but surprises are in store for some people on this sub.

This

Wrong--you need to read more postmodern maximalism!

It's my fault guys. I just moved back here from Harlem so the bad luck is following me. In 2016 I took the bus down here because New York wasn't in on the goods--until like 46 hours out or less. I swear I have the worst luck in the world!

I don't this is necessarily true. I'm pretty sure in 2016 the low was well north of us by the time that second wave of banding swept through, then it stalled there and just eroded before drifting out to sea. I get that the stuff out west isn't the deform but it very well could be if the phase was cleaner and more juiced. Perhaps I'm wrong about that, I'll have to go check the archives.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing this.

Honestly just looking at that setup...Hard to imagine we don't have a better precip shield on the western side. Is there something I'm missing with the dynamics that's keeping this from turning into one of those classic quarter circles from DC-Boston?

It's time to just look at the radar or the really short term models. The NAM is probably right, but it's not really the most useful tool right now. Whatever the WAA was 'supposed' to do means diddly squat now. The radar shows that it's passing us and we're going to have to get some pretty decent redevelopment on the back end to cash in significantly (at least here in DC, you're definitely in a better spot). Our best chance at a bunch more is with the coastal (for which you're also in a better spot). Most of your posts are looking for details and forecasts that just aren't possible at this point. You're going to have to learn from experience how these things tend to work--which in this case is that these Miller Bs indeed do tend to jump us. Things have not been going our way so far, but this is East Coast winter weather, anything can happen. I remember the second Feb 2010 blizzard came out of absolutely nowhere. If the coastal's precip shield is wider than expected, if the Low stalls farther south and west, etc. etc. Just have to wait and see.

Decent returns on radar starting to fill in but not translating out my window (yet).

What radar are you using? I swear, last time I'll ask haha.

Got me excited for a moment. Back to snizzle Let's see if we can catch some back end on the overrunning before this thing lifts.

Just curious but are you calling it already for a bust on the low end? I feel like we've always got a shot when the coastal winds up. May not deliver all the goods but we could get to that forecasted 4-8" range.

You the best!

You guys are changing lives out here. Thanks so much.

I know this is really stupid but...how the heck do you change locations? Trying to get a vantage from farther SW.