Wetbulbs88

This is just a gif it doesn't take me to the site.

Snizzle here in Harlem. Not optimistic about this one. Let's see if it can redevelop. New NAM says yes but not seeing any signs rn.

Anyone know where to find this classic radar on Accuweather? All I can find is the crap color-coded radar

What site do you get this radar from? Got a link?

NYC showing heavy returns, my window says flurries. Meanwhile up your way, my radar shows light snow, yet you're still getting crushed. You can look at the radar all day but it'll never compensate for topography. The lift out your way is always reliable.

One of those storms where you see heavy returns overhead...then look out your window...and it's just meh.

Rates have picked up in the last hour. Patches of sticking on the sidewalks.

They might bust low North and West, but there's always the chance for action out there because of lifting. I wouldn't be surprised if it's still snowing out there as the Low pulls the main banding away from the metro. That being said, I say decent because I think 2-4" is a decent call, but that is for my neck of the woods. I do think they were stubborn in buying the easterly solution for where this banding has set up; the NAM might be a tad east, but it led the way with what we're seeing. It's just not what a lot of people here wanted to see.

This. There's always hyperbole. The NWS has been pretty decent about this storm. If you look at most models, as this thing pivots and begins transferring to the new Low off the Cape, we do get a chance at more banding. But to think that 'this is just getting going', as if you can just keep looking at model outputs and expect to still reach those totals, infers a serious lack of discipline. The radar and window are your friends, and they're telling you that this won't be a widespread 6+ event, unless there's a substantial redevelopment before it pulls away.

I've been railing against the negativity this whole time, think we're in line for 2-5" which is a great storm at this time of year. I'm just don't think TWC is very reliable. I respect that you and SnowGoose disagree but to me they're too big a machine to make accurate detailed forecasts.

The last time I took advice from TWC I was just about ten years old.

Agreed. I called 2-5" on FB for the city. Would be surprised if we get to 5. This one's got too much time to go to really know for sure, but I don't think the best banding will be here and we're always working against salted pavement. Still think this will be a great early season storm.

Lol yeah they need to look out the window. Rates are improved but still nothing to write home about.

Just ticky tack stuff here in NW Harlem. Not expecting anything real until this starts to slide east. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

This is true to a certain extent. But it's also a redeveloping Low, from off the Island to the Cape. This definitely gives a minor degree of risk that the firehose you speak of will 'jump' certain areas, but it also means it's being dragged east somewhat, which has been modeled, and is already evident on radar, therefore mitigating this risk. The bigger problem, IMO, lies in the firehose's rotation, especially if it inverts totally. That would risk undercutting the city. But I don't see that happening to the degree of a total whiff. I think there will be at least a couple inches here if not more. But if you were referring to those ready to jump over not getting 6+, I can see your point.

You people are hilarious. These bands will not be stationary for 15 hours. It's clearly filling eastward. Have fun teetering on the precipice.

Do you really think that band is going to park there for the next 15 hours?

Relax. It's just blowing up now. Won't know for hours where they will set up and/or pivot.

LOL yeah people are super tempestuous, not seeing the forest through the trees. This is one run of the GFS, a global model, and we're <24 hours out. Why anyone would take it as gospel at this point is astounding to me. Everyone needs to relax. Clearly we're all going to see snow, and you should be happy if it's anything more than a couple inches in a setup like this at this time of year.

My tropical tidbits is till way behind, but from what I can see, surprised the RGEM is as robust as it is. Seems to have trouble bringing the cold air in.

Must not have included your area till now? Weird.

A WWA has been up for hours...

For sure. Kinda sits between the HRRR and NAM in terms of usefulness. Its best use IMO is in how it tempers the NAM's overexcitement sometimes. When you see them both lockstep, then you know they're onto something.

I've found the 3k to be quite useful since its inception, and think it's probably more realistic than the 12k in terms of what will happen tomorrow. Hope I'm wrong. That being said, looks like I might've been right about that megaband in NJ being overdone. No way a redeveloping low off the Cape was gonna bomb out like while transferring energy.

This makes absolutely no sense. The models are beginning to show good snows for much of the region. Considering that models are an inherently provisional tool, at what point do we lock in what's 'modeled'?