PowderBeard

Yea I'm excited to see how it pans out. There is some serious micro stuff in this area. As radarman mentioned earlier in this thread, and told me when I moved here, the difference between living off rt. 21 and 202 in Granby can be 8" vs 1" of slush. Same for 202 north of town vs. south. Even when it R/S is not a concern, center of town can get baking powder and 3-4" for the duration of a storm and Swift River area is 8-10". It's fun for sure. I think BOX is "going big" because of ratios. This should be more of a 12-14:1 storm. Closer to some of those Kuchie maps than the standard 10:1.

Yup, up until yesterday I was still thinking 6-8" and am still doubtful of 10+ here. We have done so well the past few years in terms of snow and severe here we are due for a bust while other areas rake. If things are white and it results in a snowday for my wife I'm happy. The tracking of this event has been fun and quite the learning experience.

That snowhole over my house is consistent on so many models and was initially showing up 3-4 days ago. Pretty funny stuff.

Nice. Forgot what 13* felt like until I walked outside in shorts, a t-shirt, and boots on this morning to get some firewood.

Definitely. Mohawk/Sundown for the New England jack? lol

Youll get busted for trespassing. Super strict.

So many ticks north definitely seeing some dryslot potential in central/western CT up through central Mass. Still lots of time to figure that one out.

Bust...

Definitely a good step.

We should have ratios higher than 10:1, just a matter of what is there for liquid.

NAM at 63hrs would be my projected snowfall forecast at this point.

Looks like one more small band to quickly move through. Will finish at just below 1". Driveway has a light coat but not roads.

All this lead up, I remember my intro to these forums for the January 2015 blizzard, if I remember correctly there was not much on models until 2/3 days before. So much time and changes to go.

I appreciate chance for change in that write-up along with the "here is current interpretation" piece.

16 month old is just staring out the windows. Holiday mood snow.

Don't even play around.

BOX System passing through region today will intensity rapidly over Maritimes over next few days. This becomes critical to the track of the winter storm since it affects flow downstream from us, mainly by helping strengthen confluent flow aloft which in turn prevents ridging from helping to slow down and maintain strength of upper trough. This should result in opening up of 500 mb low, which is shown by just about all models with exception of 00z NAM which is an outlier and does not fit this expectation. Upstream, we also do not see much upper level ridging across northern Rockies which would be needed to help deepen trough over eastern states. This also allows system to open up as it passes our region instead of closing off or maintaining its strength. What all this means is there is less of a chance that coastal low comes much closer to coast than 40/70 and it won`t have a chance to deepen rapidly as it passes our area, thus limiting impacts such as widespread heavy snow and strong winds. In addition, models show strongest 850 wind field and moisture convergence across NJ and Long Island before both weaken with time as they reach SNE. All of these factors argue against a "blockbuster storm" for the entire region but there are other considerations that certainly favor heavy snow including presence of deep southern stream moisture and a cold airmass in place which should yield high snow to water ratios (fluffy snow). There is likely to be a tight snowfall gradient somewhere in northern MA (thinking Route 2 right now) but this could shift north or even south in future model runs. It does look like best chance for seeing 6-12" of snow is along and south of the Mass Pike with 2-6" north of there, but again, this may shift in later forecasts. Then there`s the issue of low level temperatures which may cause p-type issues or prevent accumulations on the outer Cape and Nantucket.

This should be up there with "making its own cold."

Better snow growth now.

Yea it catches up in the Chesapeake Bay area around 60.

3km puts the low further south than 12km by a good 100 miles through the Carolinas. Anything to read into?

Wasn't expecting a pixie dust pounding. Very nice.

Drysloting worries in CT its so far north.

Moderate baking soda.