PowderBeard

NAM at 63hrs would be my projected snowfall forecast at this point.

Looks like one more small band to quickly move through. Will finish at just below 1". Driveway has a light coat but not roads.

All this lead up, I remember my intro to these forums for the January 2015 blizzard, if I remember correctly there was not much on models until 2/3 days before. So much time and changes to go.

I appreciate chance for change in that write-up along with the "here is current interpretation" piece.

16 month old is just staring out the windows. Holiday mood snow.

Don't even play around.

BOX System passing through region today will intensity rapidly over Maritimes over next few days. This becomes critical to the track of the winter storm since it affects flow downstream from us, mainly by helping strengthen confluent flow aloft which in turn prevents ridging from helping to slow down and maintain strength of upper trough. This should result in opening up of 500 mb low, which is shown by just about all models with exception of 00z NAM which is an outlier and does not fit this expectation. Upstream, we also do not see much upper level ridging across northern Rockies which would be needed to help deepen trough over eastern states. This also allows system to open up as it passes our region instead of closing off or maintaining its strength. What all this means is there is less of a chance that coastal low comes much closer to coast than 40/70 and it won`t have a chance to deepen rapidly as it passes our area, thus limiting impacts such as widespread heavy snow and strong winds. In addition, models show strongest 850 wind field and moisture convergence across NJ and Long Island before both weaken with time as they reach SNE. All of these factors argue against a "blockbuster storm" for the entire region but there are other considerations that certainly favor heavy snow including presence of deep southern stream moisture and a cold airmass in place which should yield high snow to water ratios (fluffy snow). There is likely to be a tight snowfall gradient somewhere in northern MA (thinking Route 2 right now) but this could shift north or even south in future model runs. It does look like best chance for seeing 6-12" of snow is along and south of the Mass Pike with 2-6" north of there, but again, this may shift in later forecasts. Then there`s the issue of low level temperatures which may cause p-type issues or prevent accumulations on the outer Cape and Nantucket.

This should be up there with "making its own cold."

Better snow growth now.

Yea it catches up in the Chesapeake Bay area around 60.

3km puts the low further south than 12km by a good 100 miles through the Carolinas. Anything to read into?

Wasn't expecting a pixie dust pounding. Very nice.

Drysloting worries in CT its so far north.

Moderate baking soda.

Night 1 was a WSW and we grabbed ~8", second night 3-4" forecasted and we got 16-18".

My thoughts here as well. Takes a lot to get a widespread 8-10"+ deal.

All white here except roads.

Just flipping New England the bird. Further SE.

Yea, tiny tick NW.

Live shot outside Casa de Phin

Buddy has a few pairs of Hoks we play around on for cross country trails through the woods and beg/intermediate downhill sections. Being able to make 3-4 tele turns on them a couple years ago opened the tele world for me. Definitely see the appeal. Since then I have always kept an eye out for a cheap set-up.

I keep reminding myself of this....then chase the next high. Pivotal and other sites might as well be a weenie opium den.

Euro running.

I'll ride it given the GFS history of holding out until we are within 48 hours. Would be a pretty epic GFS win if it went the other way.