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WesternFringe

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  1. WesternFringe
    Bob Chill always said around 72 hrs
  2. WesternFringe
    I don't believe the GEFS, since significant freezing rain rarely pans out in my experience (December '93 Philly area being a major exception). On Wednesday, it is likely going to be white rain or snow, and I am betting on snow. Cheering for the Euro to nod along at 12Z with the CMC, and to a lesser extent the GFS (which fringes me a bit out west here).
  3. WesternFringe
    Lol! I can’t figure it out on my phone! Oh well!
  4. WesternFringe
    About half an inch here and snowing, 27°. Going on a Jeb walk.
  5. WesternFringe
    I have been following this thread since you made it. The forecast I was commenting on was from yesterday, but okay.
  6. WesternFringe
    That’s bullish for the western zones, but I would love to be wrong about that! Maybe the western upslopes have a chance of 1-3”, but here in the valley I don’t see it happening. From Smith Mountain to Blackstone appears to be the best ULL pass and the place to be for this storm.
  7. WesternFringe
    30/25 here in Augusta County @ 1540’ A dusting is my bar, although I think I may score an inch. Frontogenesis/ best lift looks to the south and east of me on an east/west oriented oval ending south of Richmond. Anyways, should see first flakes of the winter. Best of luck to everyone!!
  8. WesternFringe
    Part of the reason some of us don’t post more outside of the DC-Baltimore area is the dismissive attitude of a few who like to remind us that the majority of the forum is DC-Baltimore focused. I live in Augusta County and am very much interested in DT’s analysis for snow chances in VA. Thanks, DT, and please keep updating us as to your latest thoughts on this!
  9. WesternFringe
    Augusta County...26/26. 1.5" so far and steady light snow
  10. WesternFringe
    Here in Augusta County: Part 1 gave me over an inch, then there was a lull in which it never stopped snowing. Now entering Part 2 of the storm which should have the most qpf and the best returns . Snow is picking up and radar looks juicy to my sw. Part 3 on Monday that some models are showing would be icing on the cake.
  11. WesternFringe
    I have long noticed the triangle of non coverage where I live. Glad to meet another one who lives in the hole!
  12. WesternFringe
    Thank you!
  13. WesternFringe
    Thanks!
  14. WesternFringe
    Steady, light snow here in Augusta County. Approaching an inch, 30.9 degrees. What do you all use for radar? Looking for a better alternative to intellicast.
  15. WesternFringe
    Started snowing (pixie dust) here in Augusta County at 12:20. Big fatties started mixing in around 1:10. Light snow here now with flakes of all sizes. 31 degrees. So satisfying to see it falling after tracking it for what seems like forever! Good luck to all in the subforum (including mby)!
  16. WesternFringe
    NAM is a short-term mesoscale model that does well inside 24 hours. However, it has the same weakness as the globals (which are kings of medium range timeframes) in that they only update every 6 hours or 12 hours. Inside 12 hours, especially within 5 hours, the short term models gain more weight in consideration since they are run with new data every hour.
  17. WesternFringe
    That's the NAM at 60 vs actual, right? The NAM at this range is much more deadly, especially the 3k
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