WesternFringe

I have enough experience with snow growing up in New England and upstate NY to know the difference between 15:1 and 10:1 and 5:1 snow when I get it without melting it down. I get both above and below 10:1 here, but this storm's thermals from 850s to 925s to 2m here at 1540' appear to be the kind of setup where I tend to get 12:1 or more. We shall see.

Not where I live at over 1500' in Augusta County. I regularly get over 10:1 ETA: Also, isn't the whole point of Kuchera ratios to adjust for the thermodynamics of each particular storm, and not randomly assign higher ratios than climo would normally suggest?

I don't buy it. Other than compaction, why would this be more accurate than Kuchera when I don't come close to losing 850, 925, or 2m the entire event?

After you get some rest, can you explain what you mean by + Theta-E advection. You have mentioned it at least in your last 2 posts, and I would love to know what it is! Thanks for analysis, as always!

That's more than the ICON has for the entire storm for me. Not a bad morning to start things.

Super excited for this storm, even down here by Staunton! Last time we had more than 5" was December 9, 2018 when we had 7". Can't wait for my kids to be able to see a real snowstorm again. Even with the warmer GFS (vs the Euro and CMC), I never lose 850 or 925 temps, even towards the tail end of the storm with the southerly upper level winds. I don't have the banding upside potential that many in this forum have, but with my elevation and the CAD firmly in place I won't be sweating temps towards game time and I will take that trade off. Looking like 8-12" here, with snow during the entire daylight hours on Wednesday and ending Thursday after midnight. Hoping the upper thermals trend more towards the CMC and the Euro solutions and the track trends towards the GFS for all you folks in the metros and that you get just crushed by the CCB and banding as the low heads OTS!

Bob Chill always said around 72 hrs

I don't believe the GEFS, since significant freezing rain rarely pans out in my experience (December '93 Philly area being a major exception). On Wednesday, it is likely going to be white rain or snow, and I am betting on snow. Cheering for the Euro to nod along at 12Z with the CMC, and to a lesser extent the GFS (which fringes me a bit out west here).

Lol! I can’t figure it out on my phone! Oh well!

About half an inch here and snowing, 27°. Going on a Jeb walk.

I have been following this thread since you made it. The forecast I was commenting on was from yesterday, but okay.

That’s bullish for the western zones, but I would love to be wrong about that! Maybe the western upslopes have a chance of 1-3”, but here in the valley I don’t see it happening. From Smith Mountain to Blackstone appears to be the best ULL pass and the place to be for this storm.

30/25 here in Augusta County @ 1540’ A dusting is my bar, although I think I may score an inch. Frontogenesis/ best lift looks to the south and east of me on an east/west oriented oval ending south of Richmond. Anyways, should see first flakes of the winter. Best of luck to everyone!!

Part of the reason some of us don’t post more outside of the DC-Baltimore area is the dismissive attitude of a few who like to remind us that the majority of the forum is DC-Baltimore focused. I live in Augusta County and am very much interested in DT’s analysis for snow chances in VA. Thanks, DT, and please keep updating us as to your latest thoughts on this!

Augusta County...26/26. 1.5" so far and steady light snow

Here in Augusta County: Part 1 gave me over an inch, then there was a lull in which it never stopped snowing. Now entering Part 2 of the storm which should have the most qpf and the best returns . Snow is picking up and radar looks juicy to my sw. Part 3 on Monday that some models are showing would be icing on the cake.

I have long noticed the triangle of non coverage where I live. Glad to meet another one who lives in the hole!

Thank you!

Thanks!

Steady, light snow here in Augusta County. Approaching an inch, 30.9 degrees. What do you all use for radar? Looking for a better alternative to intellicast.

Started snowing (pixie dust) here in Augusta County at 12:20. Big fatties started mixing in around 1:10. Light snow here now with flakes of all sizes. 31 degrees. So satisfying to see it falling after tracking it for what seems like forever! Good luck to all in the subforum (including mby)!

NAM is a short-term mesoscale model that does well inside 24 hours. However, it has the same weakness as the globals (which are kings of medium range timeframes) in that they only update every 6 hours or 12 hours. Inside 12 hours, especially within 5 hours, the short term models gain more weight in consideration since they are run with new data every hour.

That's the NAM at 60 vs actual, right? The NAM at this range is much more deadly, especially the 3k