Greg

Euro gets Eastern Mass good. Nice hit this run. Nice to have Euro on your side.

Oh well, that's crazy uncle for you 

Herpe looks somewhat similar to the evolution the CMC depicts.

CMC and RGEM models are not as great with the thermal profiles as the GFS And NAM. A Usual bias with these models but the precip look good overall.

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Climate change is very much real and is accelerating, but I don’t think that’s why the models are struggling here. The models are struggling because it’s a Miller B. 

Exactly!

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

700 looks better too. Feeling a little better with the 00z suite so far. 

As I stated earlier, just get that H7 away from that CT coastline and let the Primary Ocean low do its job.

GFS till gives a wallop to Eastern Mass for sure.

9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Harvey Leonard from the 1980s?  Is he still alive?

Try more like the 1970's.

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Well now we're getting into the fun nowcasting. Start looking at WV and seeing which models are closest to reality on placement of vorticity features. Obviously you can find the rotation of the upper lows themselves, but vort maxes will present as drying immediately upstream of the center (think ascent ahead and subsidence behind).

Same here.

After reading all this stuf from everybody and knowing the 18Z are usually slightly amped, I do hope that H7 based on all the models stays a little more south than scrapping the CT coastline like that. Need that to be less amped so it can allow the primary ocean low to do its job.

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

But that first low at 12z helped back the flow a bit and keep 925 from torching too much. It doesn’t matter with a track like this…there’s enough forcing and dynamics to overcome it. Just don’t let it get too far east. 

The main track of the primary is always most important in winter storms.

This is one of those scenarios that can bust for both Eastern Mass and Western Mass in either direction. Personally, it has a little bit of a flavor of April 6-7, 1982, in the back of my mind. Not to a tee but something along those lines.

 The storm goes around the elbow of the Cape because the center pulls a counterclockwise loop from initially moving close to the Benchmark, then being blocked from the receding storm. Depending on which model your looking at. But a track that would be most favorable for us here in Eastern Mass with the exception of the far SouthShore, Cape and islands would be a track just like it does initially (close to the Benchmark) and then a smaller loop south of the Cape and Islands then tracks east/northeast to a spot under Nova Scotia. That would just about do it. That would result in a quicker turn over to snow after a period of mix on the onset and we'd receive the heaviest omega the storm would have to offer and then pull slowly away. It would be a good for sure after such a lack luster season.

This is definately a dud-like storm. If you were the type of person that addied everything up since this morning you generally get a band/ribbon that was about 4-8", if you were the type of person that let it settle it ended up more like  3-6" type of deal. Those with any elevation played a critical role in this particular storm.

Light rain with a sleet pellet or two mixed in here. 33F

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Knock that down by a third?  At least at lower elevations. 

I was going to say the same thing. But also, in some of those elevations. Never take the printed amounts verbatim. Excluding bias means about nearly a third. Translates to about a 8-10" ribbon.

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Even my area normally does well with lows over the cape in mid winter. A couple of those big Jan blizzards in 2011 went over the cape, and I believe even the blizzard of 78 did. Hell, even in late winter it’s possible to get big snows without an optimal track. In March 2017 the low went west of my area and I still got about 10 inches of snow before changing over to sleet and then rain.

'78 remained offshore, never even grazed Nantucket. '78 was an in-between the Benchmark and Nantucket Island track headed in an east/northeasterly direction.

Got about an inch so far here in Wilmington. Nice to be a little over the forecasted amount of <1" here; just like Lexington where an inch fell a;ready. Nice very holyday like weather. 

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

If it’s over the cape that’s fine but a lot of them go into western mass. Hopefully the 2 camps meet in the middle.

Personally, I don't like when storms go over the Cape. To me, I like it when the center barely grazes or stays offshore (Especially just inside the Benchmark) but centers that go directly over the Cape to me is a very risky path unless the depth of that cold air is strong to offset that, especially for the Eastern Mass peeps with the exception of the Cape and Islands.

Lots of good cold around here for the foreseeable future. Hope one of these systems can hit. Need that blocking to be a little less intense, to ease up a bit.

After reading all this post storm analysis gives me doubts now about my total. It's strange, yesterday just before it got dark it was still snowing but the entire depths ranged from 12" - 30" worth of drifting in both the front and back yard. Almost wonder if some of the snow from other surrounding neighbors' houses landed in my yard. That's why I hate trying to measure very fluffy wind-blown snow. Heck, I'm usually guilty for undermeasuring. 

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

not sure who is training these people, but 1 mile N of Burlington MA did not see 22".  haha

I agree with you. That 22" in North Burlington looks a little suspect. The 19 in Southern Wilmington looks pretty Good and the others east/southeast of that look good due to that band that tickled us but yeah, that 22" amount is a little suspect. Might have to Data Clean/Quality Control some of those totals but not much.

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, my sister in Wilmington said 18"...I'm beside myself. Going there to measure tomorrow.

It's true, 18-19" on the average. (See National Weather Service PNS Totals) down here. Got tickled longer with the extreme western part of the deform for a little bit as it drifted around the 128 belt.