Greg

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

To me it’s not going to be Metheun area. It looks to me like it’ll be N ORH county around Hunch 

Reading the Kuchera yes, Otherwise, the more common 10:1 ratio output puts it very close to Ray maybe a little north of that but not by much.

You want that phase earlier than delayed. Looks like the low hanging back is refusing to give up its; power and remain separate for a while longer. Later the phase, the more marine air influence.

1 minute ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

EURO becoming less of a tool to use given we are close to game time. Can still use but short range models to me are best at this point


.

Depends on one's preference. I can still use medium/long-range models up to 24 hours before direct onset of snow. They are still actually fairly reliable. Then of course, I start looking at short range models such as you do.

4 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

ready for a good euro PBP 

Are you that guy who over measures in Wakefield? Just teasing  I do may jogs around the lake there for exercise all the time.

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No one off the cape is getting either of those extremes.

Didn't indicate that. But those on the far South Shore, Cape and Islands of course, and even at Logan Air Strip, which I call "a barge on the water", could be very well like that.

It's all going to narrow down to true final storm track and temperature profile of the air columns. A glitch here and a glitch there and one can have a chilly rain mixed with sleet or an all-snow event.

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

solid with the kraftian finish

Kuchera model is eye candy but for realism I'd use the 10-1 ratio for a true forecast. Not the Kuchera

14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I’m skeptical Keene only gets 2.7”

If the phase is earlier and the track of the main offshore low is further south, then that can happen. Not likely though with the FV3 model with its southern bias.

Just now, dryslot said:

No? Really? Nothing today showed that hence my comment.

Storm track and rates. ratios are always overdone.

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NE CT to NW RI to ORH may jack 

Actually, just East of Worcester on that particular Output.

1 minute ago, Layman said:

What's the likelihood my area actually sees 12-18"?

While prior results don't equal future performance, my guess is likely 6-10" based on my recency-biased, winter-storm PTSD cynical perspective.  

Seriously, the translation there is actually 12-13" is more likely then 18 in that range. Take the lower amounts of those ranges and the map then seems reasonable.

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Box not biting here. Looks like they are thinking a non event south and east of Boston 

They did say "Greatest uncertainty I95 south and east" with of course the exception of the Cape and Islands.

Nammy being Nammy!

3 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

By clown range you mean anything after 0h

Anything after 60 hours on the NAM tends to get finicky.

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

agree with a 6-12" type deal for a decent amount of NE.  I wouldn't rule out someone going over 18" though, especially with any possible wild convective banding that sets ups up in a particular zone. while 10 miles away is exhaust city.  lol  we've seen it with more than a couple recent storms, not impossible.

 The 4-8, 8-12, and 6-10 were mostly on the table if this thing tracks classically. The 18" amount was highly unlikely with both the speed and temps on this storm. Now if, and it's a very large "If" a death band over some elevation occurred, then the possibility would increase of that happening but still in the end, an unlikely scenario.

Usually when you see the GEM too amped, which it does have that bias, compared to its regional one, that is a flag that the global GEM is way too amped to be real.

The problem with the forecast here is truly how the SW behaves/interacts. It seems to want to hang back a little too long vs being absorbed or gelling quicker into the main offshore low. The Southeast tracks of the main ocean low are good. It keeps the heaviest precipitation in the heart of our viewing area. But if the SW hangs back too much then this thing comes farther north which is not good.

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

light snow develops before the main show gets here... easterly flow causing it?  you can see it in eastern areas on some of the GEFS members

Yes! All the easterly wind does is help to saturate the atmosphere here. It really doesn't do much damage to the temps. This is important. You want that.

13 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Go out to hour 102 and hit 24 hour total. It looks better.

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think that's over played actually.  What are temps right above the deck up to the midlevels?  I mean with that reasoning we'd never get snow in December when ssts are often even warmer than that.

Exactly! They play the marine influence card early here but with the track of the Main Surface Low offshore south of us and the Mid and upper levels fine, most of this would be snow with perhaps the exception of far Southshore cape and islands.

Marine influence too strong on that take from Boston but depending on the trajectory of wind the North Shore would do only slightly better in that set-up.

Great analysis Ray. Really get into it. Always loved that stuff.

Typical GEM bias being furthest north with other models further south. Interesting but not surprising knowing the traditional model biases this lag time.

The 4 corners region low tracks are not the best pattern to be in for snow here in the majority of New England going back 30-60 and even 90 years. As Will stated, we need get the MJO to stop hovering around the 4, 5, and 6 zones. Storm track needs to originate from more of an upper Midwest area then dive southbound with the cold highs following. Not trailing well behind or coming in too soon to just to be moving out while a storm approaches.