Greg

First flakes here in Wilmington.

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Alot of similarities, but also some striking differences between the euro and gfs at 120 hr. 

Exactly what I was pointing out in another post not to mention the CMC running cold which gives some pause also.

16 minutes ago, George001 said:

Solid threat for ski areas, but temps look too marginal for the coastal plain. In December I’d like to see modeled temps in the mid to upper 20s instead of low to mid 30s before I jump on board for my area. 

True, but we can still cash in when we have the upper 20's and low 30s a t this time of year. The mid 30 would be toward the Boston and SouthShore areas for sure but if the dynamics take over it would start as a mix, then a wet sleety snow for those areas.

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

A below normal November is sealed it would seem.  Through 11/27:

 

BOS: -1.4

BDL: -1.9

PVD: -2.8*

ORH: -1.0*

That is usually good news in a step-down process that we're in now. It's good that both Oct and Nov won't go down in histoy as being both above average leading into the winter season. 

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NE wind here isn't as big a deal as it is a bit further south in Wilmington, as the angle of the coast is sharper with latitude.....its the east and SE winds, like these first couple events, that still kill me this far north.

As Will stated, even a NE Wind with a decent high, doesn't have to be a great high in place, would be fine for even Wilmington. I've seen it myself many times even in December. But an east wind and especially a southeast wind would most definitely be a mid-level and even low-level killer for snow with any weak high or marginal airmass in place.

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I really do have a low key obsession with 12/14/1992....and this isn't me taking a passive aggressive jab at Scooter, either. I know that a lot of us get it, but I will always feel like it's perhaps the most under appreciated major east coast storm. I think even on this forum there are a lot of folks who don't really appreciate the magnitude of that system on a multitude of levels. ...I mean, you had coastal devastation that rivaled Sandy, The Perfect Storm and the Blizzard of '78....yet over 40" of snow in the Berkshires fueled by some of the most anomalous deep layer easterly fetch that will ever be observed. I think only 4/1/'97 may have matched it in that respect. Then aside from that, its romanticized to a degree in my mind as being the first major snow event as we emerged form the barren snowfall climo of my youth in the wee hours of that fateful morning.

Lets do that this month.

I don't think the coastal devestation reached quite 78 magnitude with 3-4 consecutive high tides but it was close. but Boston reported a peak tide of 9.35 ft (2.85 m), which was 1.05 ft (0.32 m) less than the record set in 1978.

On 11/14/2023 at 4:28 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

What happened during that event? Is this site the DCA of New England?

The problem for BDR is twofold actually. Number 1, it's in a valley. Many call it a shadow effect of the winds down sloping whether from an overall easterly or westerly direction. Number 2, they use a snow gauge. This has to catch snow that is already hindered by the valley shadow effect and also any wind will cause the snow to bypass the gauge a little regardless of a funnel put on top. With these relatively significant hinderances, one can pretty much see why a conservative snowfall report is somewhat the norm for that particular location.

1.8/1.9 January 2024 Peak of 3-month average.

1979-1980 Winter: Predominately a subtropical jet vs the polar jet stream year. As some on the board have illuded to a more active subtropical jet stream potential this coming winter season.

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ryan posted a link 29” all time Massachusetts state 24 hour record! Already multiple 30”+ reports 

Not sure that's actually a state record. Depends upon how far back he compares. 30 years, 60, 90? '78 had that in several places in less that 24 hours and that was a 30 hour storm.. April Fools Days storm of 1997 had a few of those. that was a 24-Hour storm and of course Blizzard of January 2005, 24-Hour storm. So again, not sure what Ryan is looking at.

Trying to see what I can make of the EC-Fast Euro on the Pivotal now. Just to see what it has.

12Z GFS coming in!

Euro gets Eastern Mass good. Nice hit this run. Nice to have Euro on your side.

Oh well, that's crazy uncle for you 

Herpe looks somewhat similar to the evolution the CMC depicts.

CMC and RGEM models are not as great with the thermal profiles as the GFS And NAM. A Usual bias with these models but the precip look good overall.

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Climate change is very much real and is accelerating, but I don’t think that’s why the models are struggling here. The models are struggling because it’s a Miller B. 

Exactly!

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

700 looks better too. Feeling a little better with the 00z suite so far. 

As I stated earlier, just get that H7 away from that CT coastline and let the Primary Ocean low do its job.

GFS till gives a wallop to Eastern Mass for sure.

9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Harvey Leonard from the 1980s?  Is he still alive?

Try more like the 1970's.

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Well now we're getting into the fun nowcasting. Start looking at WV and seeing which models are closest to reality on placement of vorticity features. Obviously you can find the rotation of the upper lows themselves, but vort maxes will present as drying immediately upstream of the center (think ascent ahead and subsidence behind).

Same here.

After reading all this stuf from everybody and knowing the 18Z are usually slightly amped, I do hope that H7 based on all the models stays a little more south than scrapping the CT coastline like that. Need that to be less amped so it can allow the primary ocean low to do its job.

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

But that first low at 12z helped back the flow a bit and keep 925 from torching too much. It doesn’t matter with a track like this…there’s enough forcing and dynamics to overcome it. Just don’t let it get too far east. 

The main track of the primary is always most important in winter storms.

This is one of those scenarios that can bust for both Eastern Mass and Western Mass in either direction. Personally, it has a little bit of a flavor of April 6-7, 1982, in the back of my mind. Not to a tee but something along those lines.