Greg

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

See... Good things happen to people who are willing to wait and believe in it!  Trust your instincts...

I believe in some areas it will be comparable if these models hold but I don't think everywhere in Eastern MASS.

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Harvey chucking them high and far. We’re in special territory now. 

What's interesting is that he doesn't do this so easily.

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I'm a rear guy 

Same here.

I'm out to 42 Hours on the TT.

3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

https://twitter.com/JayKenneyMedia/status/1486756923374505987?t=TU581pSTOw11F6ZixvJKIw&s=19

I actually recognize which stations did those maps without reading the fine print. The takeaway is that their thinking similar thoughts.

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Those were both around 30" for settled depth weren't they?

 

For Ray they were settled depth records, but for the official COOP data that was given they are actually a little lower but I'm not going to get into the ambiguity of snow measuring techniques either here. 

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I got 31", but BOX ended up tossing it because my max depth was only 25"......I mean, when you are snowing at like 4-5"/hr of absolute fluff for several hours, that is what happens. The measurement was accurate...I wiped and cleared every 6 hours. It was like lake effect...just sublimated and compacted so quickly.

If I remember correctly, I had 25" from the storm and 27" on Ground. The other spotter in NE Wilmington recorded 24" with 27" on Gound. Reading Mass had about 24.8" with 27" on ground and East Billerica had 25.7" with 26.2" on ground. So those are the official final totals that were recorded at the time. True, it did start to sublimate quickly but it tells me that with these observations they, like me allowed it to settle somewhat before the finally reading was reported.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you realize all it has to do is tic west to look like them?

Its hardly east of them at all now...

I do realize that. I still think the heavier omega will be east and the orientation will be only a little different than what you have there in your forecast map. However, I don't think this Feb 13 or Jan 15 all over again exactly. I will admit where you have that band is somewhat aggressive. Everything would need to come together just right for it to pan out like that, but we'll see.

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I now don't expect it to do much of anything but hold serve really after going back and looking at the 18z position.

I agree somewhat with this. I think it may tic west but not like some of the crazy stuff we saw with the UKIE and CMC just recently.

This is ridiculous.... 

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

IT'S TOO PROGRESSIVE

5 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Very much agree. While unlikely, OES and high ratios could get them into the 30" ballpark according to the GFS. 

What a historic storm back in Jan 2005. My fondest memory was that as the storm was beginning, most TV Mets had rain and mixing for those across the Cape...never came! 

It did very briefly in the very beginning. Then straight snow all the way through.

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet you would have called BS on the QPF in December 14, 1992 and March 31. 1997, too.

Probably not the QPF in 1992 nor 1997. But those were different storms.

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It sounds like all of your mental corrections bring the best snows right over your house. Helpful, for sure. LOL

I do NOT have a "Jack POT" fetish or an IMBY mentality. I have seen these models not just how they performed this year, but others, and this trend has continued. Believe what you must but I have lived and seen this many times before.

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

 

this is true but it is supported by the Euro, and even if reality is like 50 miles east of this it would still be a huge storm with a 2 ft+ jackpot.

Even the Euro and GFS have their collective biases that need slight correcting my friend. This is fairly well known. The GFS is still a little too far southeast with its tracks and tends to overdo the extent of its precip shield. the Euro, has a tendency to have a slightly over amped bias, not quite like the NAM of course, and tends to very slightly overdo the "LE" Liquid Equivalency. So, all these things need to be kept in a reasonable perspective.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What bias? It corrected towards a solution that most feel makes sense, which is also supported by the best guidance.

Out of all the upgrades, it still has a tendancy to over do "LE" Liquid Equivilancy and hug the coast a little too much. Needs to be adjusted for final outcome. Not to mention, people are basing this also on the 84 Hour. Well outside of its range credible solutions.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree with this. Its more reality than eye candy...get use to this output.

We'll see. I still know the bias the model has. So, I actually can correct those biases it in my mind based on the output I see.

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My thoughts as well.  It is still the NAM

Same here. It will change several times from this point on. More eye candy then reality.

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That one was more progressive.

True, but I believe this storm won't be an 18–24-hour event either. IMHO, I think it will be between a 15–18-hour storm. But we'll see.

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think a 950s low is out of the question.

Winter Storm "Grayson" January 3-4, 2018, had a Pressure around 953/954. This potential storm has some similarities to that not to mention a couple of other things.

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nah. We go back further.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No. The people mentioning 1978 are clueless.

I violently agree.

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Worse would be you get 12” and I get 2” of sand%

I think you do better than that of course but I am thinking at this moment slightly heavier totals eastward.

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That does seem like a distinct possibility

I was actually thinking a similar situation.

1.0" here. Nice to see it look like winter again.