Greg

 The storm goes around the elbow of the Cape because the center pulls a counterclockwise loop from initially moving close to the Benchmark, then being blocked from the receding storm. Depending on which model your looking at. But a track that would be most favorable for us here in Eastern Mass with the exception of the far SouthShore, Cape and islands would be a track just like it does initially (close to the Benchmark) and then a smaller loop south of the Cape and Islands then tracks east/northeast to a spot under Nova Scotia. That would just about do it. That would result in a quicker turn over to snow after a period of mix on the onset and we'd receive the heaviest omega the storm would have to offer and then pull slowly away. It would be a good for sure after such a lack luster season.

This is definately a dud-like storm. If you were the type of person that addied everything up since this morning you generally get a band/ribbon that was about 4-8", if you were the type of person that let it settle it ended up more like  3-6" type of deal. Those with any elevation played a critical role in this particular storm.

Light rain with a sleet pellet or two mixed in here. 33F

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Knock that down by a third?  At least at lower elevations. 

I was going to say the same thing. But also, in some of those elevations. Never take the printed amounts verbatim. Excluding bias means about nearly a third. Translates to about a 8-10" ribbon.

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Even my area normally does well with lows over the cape in mid winter. A couple of those big Jan blizzards in 2011 went over the cape, and I believe even the blizzard of 78 did. Hell, even in late winter it’s possible to get big snows without an optimal track. In March 2017 the low went west of my area and I still got about 10 inches of snow before changing over to sleet and then rain.

'78 remained offshore, never even grazed Nantucket. '78 was an in-between the Benchmark and Nantucket Island track headed in an east/northeasterly direction.

Got about an inch so far here in Wilmington. Nice to be a little over the forecasted amount of <1" here; just like Lexington where an inch fell a;ready. Nice very holyday like weather. 

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

If it’s over the cape that’s fine but a lot of them go into western mass. Hopefully the 2 camps meet in the middle.

Personally, I don't like when storms go over the Cape. To me, I like it when the center barely grazes or stays offshore (Especially just inside the Benchmark) but centers that go directly over the Cape to me is a very risky path unless the depth of that cold air is strong to offset that, especially for the Eastern Mass peeps with the exception of the Cape and Islands.

Lots of good cold around here for the foreseeable future. Hope one of these systems can hit. Need that blocking to be a little less intense, to ease up a bit.

After reading all this post storm analysis gives me doubts now about my total. It's strange, yesterday just before it got dark it was still snowing but the entire depths ranged from 12" - 30" worth of drifting in both the front and back yard. Almost wonder if some of the snow from other surrounding neighbors' houses landed in my yard. That's why I hate trying to measure very fluffy wind-blown snow. Heck, I'm usually guilty for undermeasuring. 

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

not sure who is training these people, but 1 mile N of Burlington MA did not see 22".  haha

I agree with you. That 22" in North Burlington looks a little suspect. The 19 in Southern Wilmington looks pretty Good and the others east/southeast of that look good due to that band that tickled us but yeah, that 22" amount is a little suspect. Might have to Data Clean/Quality Control some of those totals but not much.

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, my sister in Wilmington said 18"...I'm beside myself. Going there to measure tomorrow.

It's true, 18-19" on the average. (See National Weather Service PNS Totals) down here. Got tickled longer with the extreme western part of the deform for a little bit as it drifted around the 128 belt.

5 minutes ago, Patfan1987 said:

18.5 in Billerica…. Not sure if I buy that.

Trust me it's true and I didn't record that.

It's deep here. Saw the PNS reports. East Billerica close to me had 18.5 at 5:12 PM. That's right next to me. I agree with that observation. I haven't gone out since then to get an average butt it has been snowing light but persistently since then. Maybe squeezed about an inch or so since then. Who knows, way too drifty here.

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm kind of shocked that everybody clears.

Not everybody.

9 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Did places in N RI and SE MA legit get 4 feet in 1978 or is that just urban legend?

Most maps I see from that are around 3 feet or so in the jackpot zones.

38" was the official report just east of downtown Woonsocket "Eastern Woonsocket." Think of Diamond Hill at 633'. However, the true unofficial report of 40" may actually go to South Wrentham 40" with 44.0" on ground.

40 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

As of 530...15 inches in Methuen

Well over a foot here. Like I said to you earlier, get 3 more or so fluffy inches and there on out you'll have the lower end of the scale of the 18-24" and upper end of the 12-18". Ray should feel good about that.

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah I had 29" OTG in North Attleboro, there was more in Taunton.  I measured and shoveled.  They had like 35" OTG

Not based off the COOP. 17" from the storm. 27.0" On ground.

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Tauntons all-time biggest?  There was around 28" in 1996 and 30-35" in 1978 on the NW side of the city.

January 7-8 17" Snowfall 27" On Ground.

10 minutes ago, geo1 said:

About 12” here really hard to be accurate. Still coming down pretty good.

I'd say by now we're over a foot but with this drifting it is ridiculous. As you stated and me earlier, just terrible to measure. If I showed a picture on here of my property/ back + Front, yard, Porch, many comments here would say that it looks definitely over a foot.

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

It is really going to have to snow hard for several hours to make a run. 

Like I said, we'll see but this will keep going until maybe 6-7P tonight. So, if the math is correct, He has a small shot. Snow probably won't be finish till 10PM tonight or so.

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

most forecasts for this area were 18-24..

He might make a run at 18 but might fall short like 16-17.5. We'll See.

5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Up to 9 inches in Methuen as of 215

Ray will get into the double digits for sure. I had 9.0" about a over a couple of hours ago.

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The jackpot should be between Weymouth and Taunton in the end.

Wouldn't be surprised either to see an immediate Northshore or Cape Ann Jockpot either. That band has been getting them for several hours now.