Greg

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wagons north

Not quite yet.

2 minutes ago, met_fan said:

I get lost with all the acronyms here…what is AEMATT?

All Eastern Mass All The Time

Reggie solution will be tossed due to its warmer bias.

33 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

So given the paste, is this the more realistic clown?

No, it's not that realistic. Use the 10:1 ratio. It's more realistic and easier to correct for. The only way that clown map gets closer to reality is if and only if the storm comes closer and the omega can get that far north. The heaviest still appears to be in far Southern New Hampshire and off to the south in Eastern Mass. Yes, there will be some elevation enhancement on the eastern facing Worcester hills and southern Berks. This is looking like a colder storm now with the high to the north not moving away as quickly as though much earlier and the track is now a tic or two south and offshore.

I WANT SNOW!!!!!!!!!

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The constant weenie overanalyzing is amusing but I understand for certain areas.  This had basically been a 6” storm for Greenfield since Monday.

Perhaps, but there are people that exist on the board and other viewers that need to understand why certain things occur/happen or unfold the way they do.

8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

TV Mets very underwhelming for the coast. 1-3ish for most. I think they bust too low at least on the north shore. 

The problem here is the main low and trailing short wave are not hooking up quite as well as we want to get a well-developed ccb and once again a fleeting high vs a building high is to the north/northeast of us. If the high was coming in just now to start to build the cold and the storm approached on late Saturday through Sunday afternoon with a decent phase/CCB and a true Benchmark track, then we'd be talking a much better scenario here.

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Big implications here too. The models got that CCB cranking in time here at 12z, let’s see if it holds later.

thats going to be the difference between 2-3” of slop or 8-9” of paste.

For you, an earlier phase and slightly south track will give you a definitely better result. As stated, 2-3 inches of pure glop or 7-8 inches of heavy wet snow.

2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I miss the Messenger Shuffle - wish we still had those but maybe models are too good now. 

I feel like any jumps now are typically just noise, and wobble back after a couple cycles. 

All these wobbles are not just noise. They can translate to relatively large differences on the ground.

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

 

I still don’t know which of these I should look at.  When do you use one vs the other?

question for tomorrow is whether we get a Messenger Shuffle or some Jeff Jumps.

 

Kuchera is usually the most exaggerated/amped vs the 10:1 ratio output.

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

They are only about 5-10 miles apart by 12z Sunday 

What I'm getting at is the small nuances of the phasing and true trajectory of the snow shield vs the marine air influence. Such as GFS slightly earlier phase, Euro slightly later phase, and so forth.

The reality is the true storm track may actually be between both the Euro and GFS here. Not as close as the Euro and not further south like the GFS.

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

To me it’s not going to be Metheun area. It looks to me like it’ll be N ORH county around Hunch 

Reading the Kuchera yes, Otherwise, the more common 10:1 ratio output puts it very close to Ray maybe a little north of that but not by much.

You want that phase earlier than delayed. Looks like the low hanging back is refusing to give up its; power and remain separate for a while longer. Later the phase, the more marine air influence.

1 minute ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

EURO becoming less of a tool to use given we are close to game time. Can still use but short range models to me are best at this point


.

Depends on one's preference. I can still use medium/long-range models up to 24 hours before direct onset of snow. They are still actually fairly reliable. Then of course, I start looking at short range models such as you do.

4 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

ready for a good euro PBP 

Are you that guy who over measures in Wakefield? Just teasing  I do may jogs around the lake there for exercise all the time.

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No one off the cape is getting either of those extremes.

Didn't indicate that. But those on the far South Shore, Cape and Islands of course, and even at Logan Air Strip, which I call "a barge on the water", could be very well like that.

It's all going to narrow down to true final storm track and temperature profile of the air columns. A glitch here and a glitch there and one can have a chilly rain mixed with sleet or an all-snow event.

2 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

solid with the kraftian finish

Kuchera model is eye candy but for realism I'd use the 10-1 ratio for a true forecast. Not the Kuchera

14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I’m skeptical Keene only gets 2.7”

If the phase is earlier and the track of the main offshore low is further south, then that can happen. Not likely though with the FV3 model with its southern bias.

Just now, dryslot said:

No? Really? Nothing today showed that hence my comment.

Storm track and rates. ratios are always overdone.

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NE CT to NW RI to ORH may jack 

Actually, just East of Worcester on that particular Output.

1 minute ago, Layman said:

What's the likelihood my area actually sees 12-18"?

While prior results don't equal future performance, my guess is likely 6-10" based on my recency-biased, winter-storm PTSD cynical perspective.  

Seriously, the translation there is actually 12-13" is more likely then 18 in that range. Take the lower amounts of those ranges and the map then seems reasonable.

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Box not biting here. Looks like they are thinking a non event south and east of Boston 

They did say "Greatest uncertainty I95 south and east" with of course the exception of the Cape and Islands.