etudiant

The heat is not yet showing up, at least in the DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute) Arctic temperature tracking: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php So where is it? Separately, with all this accumulated oceanic heat, can we forecast a new low for September Arctic ice? What if anything could gum up the process? It is important to couple the measurements to real forecasts, else the utility of the measurements becomes arguable.

Afaik, the Arctic melt is largely driven from below, by warmer ocean water. It would be very useful to have some actual water temperature data characterizing the various currents that impact the Arctic Ocean. Obviously the data is really hard to get, but surely someone has worked this problem.

Do these air temperature changes have any substantial effect on the ice melting process? My impression was that melting is mostly driven by direct solar heating and increased sea water temperature.

I'd thought the air temperature was not as significant as the water temperature in driving the amount of melting in the Arctic. Is this a misperception?

I don't understand why there is this belief in linear models. Everything we know about climate and weather says jumps are the norm, not slow and gradual transitions from one state to another. So why would we expect arctic ice to behave differently? Based on precedent, we should bump around a record low for a while . Then, if the environment remains favorable, we jump to a zero late summer ice regime. The Viking records suggest as much. The real question is whether this is a cyclical or a secular development. Does anyone have any substantive input towards answering this question?