I don't understand why there is this belief in linear models.
Everything we know about climate and weather says jumps are the norm, not slow and gradual transitions from one state to another.
So why would we expect arctic ice to behave differently? Based on precedent, we should bump around a record low for a while .
Then, if the environment remains favorable, we jump to a zero late summer ice regime. The Viking records suggest as much.
The real question is whether this is a cyclical or a secular development. Does anyone have any substantive input towards answering this question?
