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tunafish

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    “Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

    in New England

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

    The History of this online weather world from Eastern to American has Never been “Only a Pro can start weather threat threads.”   You simply don’t like my ranting or me  B).  

    I said cred, not pro!

    How'd (A)I do?

    1/25–26 Coastal Storm Thread: Deep Cold + Moisture Feed = High-Impact Ceiling (Still Volatile)

    Big picture: We’re heading into a major arctic outbreak with a cold high pressing across the northern tier, while a frontal zone + subtropical moisture plume sets up to our south. Guidance supports a significant winter storm from the southern tier into the Mid-Atlantic, with increasing signals that SNE is now in the envelope. 

    Over the last ~48h, there’s been a notable north shift in many solutions, tied to greater interaction/phasing between southern-stream energy and northern-stream energy over the Plains → deeper trough → stronger downstream ridging → farther north storm track. WPC notes this shift is broadly reflected across deterministic/ensembles/AI guidance, but also warns the unanimity could be partly a mirage due to unresolved shortwave details. 

    SNE baseline expectation (as of 1/21):

    • Snow looks increasingly likely late Sunday into Monday, but exact track/gradient still low confidence. 

    • Ensemble spread still supports anything from “a few” to “10+” depending on where the coastal low tracks relative to the benchmark. 

    • With the arctic air mass in place, SLRs could be higher than climo for much of the region where snow verifies. 

     Things to watch:

    • Track vs benchmark (suppressed / benchmark / inside runner)

    • Degree of phasing (deformation/banding ceiling vs quick hitter)

    • Coastal front placement (I-95 jackpot potential vs sharp cutoff)

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