SnowLover22

tropical cyclone/transitioning giving a foot of snow. That would be a first. I wonder would you even call this a nor'easter. Technically it is a tropical cyclone hybrid.

That's a little complicated to be certain. Granted, speculation here; but two points: 1) It would not have needed a full day at the rate the pressure fall it was experiencing into landfall to have become a more intense. Between 4:30AM and 10:30AM CDT recon missions recorded a pressure drop from 937 mb to 923 mb. The last pass recorded 919 mb at 12:30PM CDT. A mere six more hours over those above-normal GOM SSTs and exquisite upper tropospheric conditions and it would have likely bottomed out around 910 hPa, taking into account some leveling off as well. At that rate of pressure fall and gradient increase, even nine more hours we would have seen Michael flirt with 150-160 kts (175-185 mph) winds. 2) On the other hand, the eye was also contracting and a concentric band was beginning to form. So given too much more time, very probable that an ERC would have most likely initiated given another full 24 hrs, and we would have likely seen Michael level off and weaken. Yeah and I guess it was flirting with MPI so it couldn't have strengthened too much more. Would have naturally leveled off........ even without an ERC.

I know it was intensifying up until landfall. One can wonder how much stronger it would have gotten if it had another day over water. 185 mph? 190 mph?

Obviously just another data point< Hurricane Hunter Data but interesting anyways.

um.....

Any signs of activity after Delta?

Have you guys heard of Letchworth State Park. I've heard its a pretty nice park to go to. I think it is around an hour from Geneva.

Seems there is a case to pull this below major status at 11 pm.....

So yeah steady-state/ a little bit of weakening.

Recon says this storm has weakened a bit.

What do you think of the HWRF. It weakens Delta just below major status before the 1st landfall because of shear.

Josh has arrived in Cancún.

if true that is good news

Levi saying that recon found 80 mph winds. Seems like the strengthening continues.

In regards to Subtropical cyclones, I wonder why this is Is it because it is assumed that it is a meteorological impossibility for there to be a subtropical storm that has at least 74 mph winds? Upon further research, it seems there was a subtropical storm that was not classified as a tropical storm that had wind speeds at 70 mph. So is it that far-fetched that you could have a "Subtropical hurricane"? Sorry about being off topic. I have just wondered about this for a while. @Windspeed

If you actually care, here is a peer-reviewed journal article backing up my claim https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027313

Definitely but would most likely have to be a pinhole eye. A system with a larger eye would be harder pressed to find the high wind speeds that Patricia produced.

Wouldn't it take a while. The heat capacity of water is high so just "a couple of days in the sun"I feel like would not really warm up the waters that much.

listen to the actual video Direct quote from Levi "the plane is measuring 85-90 mph maximum not really getting up to the 100 mph that was observed earlier".

Im pretty sure you would be annoyed as well if someone called you out for no reason. It seems like a normal human reaction.

@cheese007@brentrich are you guys dense or what? Recon data clearly shows pressure between 987-990mb. Are you saying that is not weaker than this morning because it is. Think before you post. It would serve you well. Also if you actually took the time to look at the data like I did, you would see that recon had higher SFMR data this morning compared to now. Also Levi confirmed in his video what I said so yeah just please think before you post.

My college driving up the #s in Ontario County yikes...

technically the same storm so ill put it here, looks the storm has reformed in the Eastern Pacific.

well being a met is my dream job. If I do decide to change it won't be because of one convo on here. I think you can understand that.

Well its hard to see what the job market is going to be like in 6 years.