SnowLover22

GFS-p looks pretty good. Snowfall maps are not out yet but looks like it would be 4-8 inches area wide when they do come out.

@wolfie09 you will like the euro!!!

Too bad not all of it is snow. Over 2 inches of QPF, if this same thing happened literally just a month later it would be a historic 1.5 foot + snowstorm as depicted on the Ukie.

Might be time to buy an ice scrapper for my car. Shame.....I was hoping I could hold off another month.

Anyone have vertification scores for the gfs-p. Is it any good at all?

GFS-p is still interested

What is the difference between CAPE and MAX THETA E CAPE.

Location/ name of trail? view looks amazing that's why I ask

Dude this is a bad a take.

tropical cyclone/transitioning giving a foot of snow. That would be a first. I wonder would you even call this a nor'easter. Technically it is a tropical cyclone hybrid.

That's a little complicated to be certain. Granted, speculation here; but two points: 1) It would not have needed a full day at the rate the pressure fall it was experiencing into landfall to have become a more intense. Between 4:30AM and 10:30AM CDT recon missions recorded a pressure drop from 937 mb to 923 mb. The last pass recorded 919 mb at 12:30PM CDT. A mere six more hours over those above-normal GOM SSTs and exquisite upper tropospheric conditions and it would have likely bottomed out around 910 hPa, taking into account some leveling off as well. At that rate of pressure fall and gradient increase, even nine more hours we would have seen Michael flirt with 150-160 kts (175-185 mph) winds. 2) On the other hand, the eye was also contracting and a concentric band was beginning to form. So given too much more time, very probable that an ERC would have most likely initiated given another full 24 hrs, and we would have likely seen Michael level off and weaken. Yeah and I guess it was flirting with MPI so it couldn't have strengthened too much more. Would have naturally leveled off........ even without an ERC.

I know it was intensifying up until landfall. One can wonder how much stronger it would have gotten if it had another day over water. 185 mph? 190 mph?

Obviously just another data point< Hurricane Hunter Data but interesting anyways.

um.....

Any signs of activity after Delta?

Have you guys heard of Letchworth State Park. I've heard its a pretty nice park to go to. I think it is around an hour from Geneva.

Seems there is a case to pull this below major status at 11 pm.....

So yeah steady-state/ a little bit of weakening.

Recon says this storm has weakened a bit.

What do you think of the HWRF. It weakens Delta just below major status before the 1st landfall because of shear.

Josh has arrived in Cancún.

if true that is good news

Levi saying that recon found 80 mph winds. Seems like the strengthening continues.

In regards to Subtropical cyclones, I wonder why this is Is it because it is assumed that it is a meteorological impossibility for there to be a subtropical storm that has at least 74 mph winds? Upon further research, it seems there was a subtropical storm that was not classified as a tropical storm that had wind speeds at 70 mph. So is it that far-fetched that you could have a "Subtropical hurricane"? Sorry about being off topic. I have just wondered about this for a while. @Windspeed

If you actually care, here is a peer-reviewed journal article backing up my claim https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL027313