SnowLover22

it is already clear at 96 hours that the euro will not be like the gfs. Shortwave is not digging as much out west.

out west through 84 hours the euro and gfs actually look remarkably similar. The differences I see is that the shortwave is more amplified on the gfs vs the euro. PV is in a similar placement on both models.

I suggest not looking at the ukie. Good time to call it a night.

I am looking at the h5 track after it is off-shore. It looks like the lobe helps to bring the h5 low of our storm northward with the interaction so we want that to happen sooner I assume for the coastal to have a more Northern track closer to the coast?

do you enjoy giving bad news? there are many other examples.

It seems like you are saying this pattern cannot get much better. Like what is the upside? I would assume a Jan 16' type storm is possible in this pattern if it really is the best possible pattern we can get that would only come once a decade.

lol I do not know what I would do if the numbers that are drawn appears in one of the posts here.

96 is not a possible number. It is 1-70 for the white balls.

15-33-19-11-5-17 btw, this is my 777th post (was not planned) and the number 777 is used on most slot machines in the United States to identify a jackpot. Take that for what it is worth lmao.....

what the hell is wrong with the NE forum lmao

I was 16 when I first joined the forum. I have to admit, I learned quickly quantity is not nearly as good as quality. My posts are few and far between (26 total posts) between December 15th- January 15th. And used to post much more frequently with little value. Presently, having taken quite a few college-level meteorology courses have helped with most recently taking an upper-level mesoscale meteorology course which will hopefully allow me to contribute when we get to severe weather season as it seems that the most important aspects of severe weather do happen on the mesoscale with there obviously being synoptic components. Lastly, I have not yet taken Synoptic meteorology which is why I still am not great with posts in regards to winter weather threats but I hope to be able to take that course next year. I hope to be able to contribute more as I continue my education in meteorology.

Good call. The primary hangs on a tad too long for your area and probably even mine. Extrapolating, I am sure it would have been a great run for interior New England . H5 track is just a bit too far north. But we do get a little bit of blue so there is that.

It seems like he is saying that the climate is controlled by the manipulation of people to do certain actions that would affect the earths climate. I have no ****ing clue lol. Just a wild guess.

I respectfully disagree. The gfs a few days ago did outline a scenario that would work that was just southern wave with no or little NS interaction. You just need the southern wave at H5 to track in the right location.

if they aren't going to phase it would be better if the NS system was just completely out of the way.

You want the interaction between those two pieces to be more favorable. As modeled, the piece marked as the "X" acts as a "kicker" which is why the coastal storm does not climb the coast.

Also I assume the area being in the right entrance region of the jet-streak is contributing as well promoting rising air through upper-level divergence.

Regardless how this ends up, love the look of a strong high pressure overtop to prevent the storm from cutting. Edit: Unfortunately, the high pressure system moves out of the way allowing the low pressure system over Texas to cut.

There is no strong inversion on this sounding near DC as per the 00z NAM as seen below. This should allow for there to be a greater chance of the strong winds at 850mb to be able to mix down. The squall line as predicted by the NAM should further help to mix down the winds from the LLJ. The second image below shows the predicted 850mb winds Lastly, there is PVA present so I am by no means in expert but that could be a source to lift up the air parcels absent CAPE which is maybe why the NAM is forecasting a squall line?

Just out of curiosity, how did you decide on specifically the 1/21/16, 12/08/09, 2/12/83 events for your composite.

I'm sure if Ji lived in Watertown, NY he would still find some reason to complain.

Could easily go away next run but the euro shows potential around New Years as have other models to varying degrees.

System stays weaker this run because the jet-streak upstream is weaker and there is not as much curvature. 6z 12z

That arrow should be more ENE but you get the idea.

Day 10 gfs is actually a pretty good setup. It holding is another matter though.