DownpourDave

your not kidding. DC was about to get destroyed.

Pretty much as good as a signal as you can get at this lead time.

look what followed re 00z euro, 12z euro, 18z eps.

Almost perfect location imo.

EPS is beautiful look at this h5. OMG

Did the 18z euro that goes up to 90 hours give any clues. How does it compare to 12z euro at 96 hours. More Suppression in the NE? less? Shortwave out west more amplified or less?

honestly would you even care after your 30 inch + snow storm on the same model.

Enjoy

Hearing that the EPS are pretty epic. Pretty good look right here

Total qpf for the euro. Pretty sure all of that is snow.

ill sacrifice myself in hoping it will help the gfs-para pan out. The mid-atlantic subform really does deserve/need this @WxWatcher007

For some people here is simply having snow on the ground enough? Like if you never got a big storm but were able to get a couple of 2-5 inch events and keep the snow cover, would that be good enough? Would you trade that for never being able to get a 20"+ snowstorm but getting those small events? I can tell you personally I would prefer getting the big storms and never just getting the couple of 2-5 inch events. Where I go to school in upstate New York I always get a few inches from lake effect since I'm on the edge of where lake effect snow happens but rarely if ever get a big storm from synoptic. The way it works from Jan-March there is perpetually most of the winter at least an inch of snow cover (6 inches at most) but that is not enough. I would rather miss those small events completely and be at home near the coastal plain having a chance at the 20+ inch synoptic snowstorm then the other way around.

If this winter ends up a total fail I think there is an argument to be made that it is even worse than last winter. This winter we had sustained period of -NAO/AO. We did not have that last winter. Which makes this winter worse than last.

Tropospheric Polar Vortex

it is significantly further south suppressing the heights. Important frames upcoming.

this is part of what we should keep in mind for the 00z runs tonight. Ideally, we want the TPV to be out of the way but if that cannot happen the next best thing is to get it positioned more favorably. Having the TPV positioned further west allows better heights out in front of the shortwave.

it is frustrating when you think about it. This same exact winter 130 years ago probably would have produced already double digit snowfall for the season by now. You remember that storm back in December where you mixed to sleet, that would have been all snow for you and you would have gotten probably a foot of snow out of it. And now that I am thinking about it with a colder background state, the baroclinic zone would have been further south for that storm so I am sure some of these misses to the north so far this winter would not have been back then.

update: From Washington Post, imrs.php-2.jp2 It is easy to see the decline. Seems like 10-15 more inches on average would have been a good bet for early 1800s extrapolating the trend-line back a little further.

I always have wondered what experiencing winters pre-industrial revolution climate would have been like. My guess is DC in the 1800s averaged at least 10 more inches of snow but would have look at the data.

also the TPV up in Canada is in a better location vs 12z gfs. Should be less suppressive.

my guess is positive feedback loop. The warmer it gets the less snow there is so it is able to get warmer even faster. Also it being a la Nina is a factor. I think we can all agree that a el Nino with a -AO/NAO would have produced a colder result for us. If I am wrong someone please chime in.

the shortwave is digging slightly less. My guess this ends up slightly worse than 6z but still way better than the euro.

That ULL that you are talking about on the icon is further south on the 12z gfs vs 6z. Hope that is not too bad of a sign.....

It will not allow me to post another attachment. I will have to clear later. So to finish up this post, I was going to show the gfs which clearly shows the PVA being NW of the euro which allows for the best precipitation to be over the DC area and points northwest.