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RDRY

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Everything posted by RDRY

  1. RDRY
    Still just 1-1.5 in Lenox. The models nailed extreme western MA's donut hole on this one.
  2. RDRY
    The band is finally making it up here.
  3. RDRY
    Berkshire bust. Maybe a half-inch so far. Max for this one looks to be about 4.
  4. RDRY
    Pixie dust for first 3 hours in Lenox. Dry air FTW.
  5. RDRY
    3K mucho juicy. NAM is always fun in this range for locked-in coastals.
  6. RDRY
    Two-day pack flooded away. Hard to deny the frequency of these screaming rainers.
  7. RDRY
    Later phase no bueno for Berks.
  8. RDRY
    NAM does funny stuff after its useful range. But this does illustrate the complex interplay of the trailing SW.
  9. RDRY
    Can't feel confident until the NAVGEM, NOGAPS and CRAS are on board.
  10. RDRY
    I think we'll do very well in Central and western Mass. Better thermals.
  11. RDRY
  12. RDRY
    Long odds seem to be the only odds we got these days.
  13. RDRY
    If that lead wave keeps de-amping, the trailing wave may gain enough space/dynamics to put down 2-5.
  14. RDRY
    That, and the trailing shortwave maybe taking over.
  15. RDRY
    1/5 dissipated into almost nothing. At least if 1/7 does the same, there's a benefit.
  16. RDRY
    On the 10th, GFS really flummoxed with the surge of moisture into a very stubborn cold air mass. That evolution should be fun to watch.
  17. RDRY
    No complaints with that Euro run -- GFS with its typical depiction at this lead time to a coastal.
  18. RDRY
  19. RDRY
    Interesting how each successive system gains latitude, but outside of the first one rounding the bend late, these are west-to-east deals. At least there's finally an actual northern cold source -- the 850s are below freezing for the entire northeast almost the entire GFS run.
  20. RDRY
    Has the Ukie vanished? I know it's barely a step up from the Nogaps, but the Brits might be getting offended.
  21. RDRY
    I understand most of the teleconnections and follow them here with the charts. It's just an observation that the long-range models mostly seem to overplay their fluctuations, and they ultimately stay within a fairly confined range for most of our winters.
  22. RDRY
    Persistence > teleconnections.
  23. RDRY
    21,240 minutes to lock it in.
  24. RDRY
    Merry Christmas, and a happy persistence new year.
  25. RDRY
    Euro is fun. Perfect evolution, perfect track, near-perfect climo. Result ... rain into Canada.
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