JoMo

00z NAM is going to be different because it has a piece of energy farther NE, that falls apart, and then it has an open wave.

Yeah, but there's a bunch more model runs to go, and a lot more changes that will happen.

18z GFS is looking faster with the system. Going to result in the heaviest being over NE AR and SE MO.

Yeah, I don't blame them. It's going to be an interesting system, that's for sure...

18z RDPS (Canadian NAM) was a good hit for SW MO, and NW AR this run. Not the insane amounts of the NAM but 3-6" and still going.

Yeah 1/2" of freezing rain in some spots, followed by at least 20" of snow, and still snowing at end of run in spots.

Southern Missouri just getting hammered this 18z NAM run.

12z Euro did move more towards the GFS camp this run. Going to be interesting to see any changes that occur when this thing beaches itself tomorrow.

12z Canadian finally coming in, a bit farther NW and more QPF.

00z Euro is a little slower, little deeper, and still boring.

00z Canadian going to drop it down western KS/OK into TX this run. Weaker than the GFS. Nails central and eastern Arkansas.

Main change I saw on the 00z GFS was a bit weaker and a bit slower with the system.

Too bad they got rid of the DGEX, the most useless weather model ever.

So, that was different on the 00z NAM.

I'm getting old, I can't remember things that well, anymore, but I'm sure it's happened before. The surface temps are very marginal, but it's cold enough to very cold as we head up into the atmosphere. The overall tilt/structure of the system is going to be important, especially when it comes to any wraparound precip. I think the Euro wasn't that impressive while the GFS was pretty impressive in that regard. It'll change as the energy for this system is still out in the Pacific and won't be over land until late Thursday it looks like.

Very strange system for this area, digging south down the Plains across western Kansas.

Doramo probably has the best chances with the upcoming system. These 'clipper' type systems usually end up farther east.

So the 06z GFS happened, wow. Probably not going to happen, but wow.

That Saturday storm is a weird one and has came back west quite a bit on the 00z GFS. Interesting. EDIT: 00z Canadian follows with a farther western track/stronger upper low. EDIT2: 00z Euro is farther west but weaker as well.

Individual storm threats are unknown at this time, but pretty much all the ensembles have a strong -EPO signal, which usually signals cold air dumping into the Plains/Eastern US.

After tonight's little snow shower which may accumulate an inch or two in some places, it kinda looks pretty boring winter weather wise. There will probably be somewhat of a warmup through about mid-month and then we will probably go into the deep freeze, if the ensembles are right, due to a big -EPO.

The system on Wed night/Thurs looks a bit moisture starved in our area, it will pick more up as it heads east. However, it's going to be cold and there's a decent amount of forcing, but it's moving quickly so I wouldn't be surprised to see an inch or two somewhere. In our immediate area, Missouri is the most likely place to see accumulating snow it looks like. Springfield has a winter probabilities page that shows what they are thinking as far as amounts are concerned. https://www.weather.gov/sgf/winter

Had some light snow/flurries here off and on. Nice dusting outside.

Still looking like the worst will be north of our area. 18z NAM is interesting with closing off that secondary system and bringing snow to basically AR/MO/NE OK.

00z GFS coming in a bit colder farther south with the New Years storm. Might be more of an ice threat for OKC/Tulsa/Joplin/Springfield/St. Louis than earlier thought if it's right.