snowmagnet

20 minutes ago, Shad said:

Is it bad when you are excited to see what the GFS is showing at hour 240 on the 12z run.   What a stupid hobby

I'm glad I'm not the only one.  The waiting between runs is ridiculous.  We are a strange bunch.  I talk about this stuff at work and people look at me like I'm crazy.  They just want to know if we will have a snow day or not. 

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Close it and start another

I second that. It’s the only way. 

12 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I wouldn’t complain if something like a commutageddon redux happened…minus the commute part. Almost 4”/hr rates and the most prolific thundersnow event I’ve experienced.

I hope people (OPM and businesses) have since learned, or remote work options will make people stay home.   I recall that day vividly because I was telling everyone I knew to be home no later than 4 pm because it was going to be a sudden changeover.   Some were complaining because Fairfax County stayed home all day (I think we had a bit of snow in the morning). I was actually rather shocked that they made that decision, but I was really glad to not be in the mess.   CWG did an awesome job of trying to warn people of the changeover.  I think we all learned about graupel that day.  It was a really cool changeover to watch (unless you were watching from the roads).  

Snowmageddon memories from 14 years ago are popping up.  Hopefully modeling will start coming through soon to keep hopes high around here. 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

No, that's the control run.  It's essentially the Euro op run out to Day 45.  

Thank you. That's what I was trying to understand.  

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the expanse of the storm, that would rival 1996 in terms of a NESIS score.  Keep in mind thats straight 10-1 on a low resolution control run, which would be very low given that h5 and surface depiction.  Yes I know its a day 20 snowmap, but it shows the potential of this pattern.  

This is an Ensemble Mean for 7 days. That’s some good consensus. But it is the control, so what does that mean? Is the GEFS similar for the time period?

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Hey guys! Today's LR ensembles look really good for a possible storm around Feb 19th. 

https://ibb.co/r4tx7cj

The -EPO is what I really like to see, because that has the biggest net difference to our Winter snowfall (temps+precip together). +PNA's are cold, and they favor low pressure on the coastline, but sometimes they can be as moisture starved as they are cold.  This setup looks really good for ~Feb 19... the N. Pacific low east of the Aleutian island/+PNA spot, is really good for our active STJ and a potential monster storm!

The LR hasn't been trending favorably inside 12 days lately, so that's the only negative... but as guidance looks now, I'd say big potential likely ~ Feb 19

PDIII… 

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

But where's my +PNA?  i was told there would be a +PNA.  @Stormchaserchuck1 promised me a +PNA.

Patience… it’s coming.  Where’s the faith in Chuck? 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I recall there being an east based -NAO. Wasn't the classic NA look that's for sure.

That PD 2 in ‘03 was not forecast to be much if I remember correctly.  It way over performed in my area, at least. We ended off school for the week. That was good, because I was pregnant and down with a wicked sinus infection.  

4 minutes ago, weatherbook said:

1942 was big.  Even bigger than 1958 for the greater DC area.  

Everyone talks about late March 1993 around here.  I guess that one wasn't over 20" in Baltimore, so it doesn't count.  I was living in Louisville that year, so I don't know how much we had around here.  
 

We all knew that we would have to go through a pattern change, and 48 hours ago, people were thrilled about the upcoming period after Feb 10th.  Now it's like the panic room in here because we are possibly "losing" the 4th/5th.  We all know that we basically have to luck into any major storms in the MA.  And currently the 4th/5th is trending more north.  So, there is no reason to shut the blinds.  Mid-Feb to mid-March is our opportunity.  

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Our epic winter period is right around the corner. Just another couple weeks. Hang tight y'all. 

For probably half the people around here, the tracking part is at least 50% of the fun.  Close to 100% for Ji.  So the fun should begin even sooner.  

43 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Start the thread

You mean the Comeback thread? 

33 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I chased to Virginia Beach in early January 2017.  Stayed in a cabin at First Landing State Park.  Would highly recommend.  The rangers actually shoveled us out.

There was a blizzard warning in effect and winds on the beach were over 55 mph.  Plows were running and with a four wheel drive vehicle I had no difficulty getting around.

 

 

If I remember that one correctly, Carolina, Central VA, and the beaches were crushed.  Even southern MD got snow.  Fairfax County was the line and we had pretty much nothing.  

2 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

We've seen that happen, too, in the past.  As one example, February 2015 here in the mid-Atlantic.  From January up to about Valentine's Day, it was a pretty tame and blah winter.  We missed out on some events that gave us rain and drizzle.  Then an Arctic front with a blast of snow and cold went through on Feb. 14, and that ushered in a ~3 week period with an extremely cold rest of February and early March along with some decent moderate wintry events.  No, it wasn't any kind of HECS-level thing but the pattern then was a lot different than this look (it wouldn't have been conducive to a major storm).  Yet we still managed all that in a short turnaround time.

Feb 2015 was fun.  Lots of over performers in a short time. 

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ve never seen this

That explains DT's Pamela Anderson pattern. LOL

We could probably change the title of the thread to "Balls that Lucy kicked in the final seconds", or "Sad Storms that said Goodbye".  

I'm home with COVID so there is nothing for me to do but track a .00001 chance of a snowflake. Or do my taxes.  

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

It's hard to look at.

Is this March 2001? 

4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

I live in this subforum. I got over a foot. Civilization doesn't end at the east side of the Bay Bridge. We may not live in DC/Balt, but we're still a part of the sub. 

That's absolutely true.  Boxing Day was forecast for a big storm for the rest of us and it shifted last minute, so those of us to the west literally had nothing.  I'm from Southern MD and for a couple of years around 2017-2019, Southern MD and the coastal areas had more in one storm than we had in the entire winter. It's rare to have a forum wide event.  Let's hope for one this year!

Can we just stage a Boxing Day-like coup?  Bring this one south.

7 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Some of us actually got snow for that one. A lot.

Yeah, Georgia. South and east, I guess.  I remember some friends from Atlanta visiting up here that weekend.  They missed out on a rare December snow and I was so depressed at missing that one. 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

anyone who does not call for snow and cold is just a straight out moron

Why are some people calling for a torch in mid February?  I followed the link to BAM weather.  I clearly don't follow them.  It sort of feels like a good analogy of our political climate. Someone says wintry, the other says torch.  

Is March 2001 the one that NY stole from us in the last few seconds of the game?  

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

There has been a number of posts about how we're still in the game well into March in this thread.  So I went and looked at historical snow totals at DCA by month.  According the the data I saw, we've only gotten double-digit snow totals for the entire month of March twice in recent eras.  Once I think was 2014, and before that it was either was like 1959 or 1969 or somewhere there about.  So I don't get where the March optimism comes from.  

 

Eta, went and found the data again, it was 1960.  

Depends on where. 1st week of March  1999 we had over 10 “ in Fairfax. 

1 hour ago, stormy said:

Late Sunday and Sunday night could be interesting according to the 18z GFS.

Some of the blue has been pushed south and southwest.

How far south is Happy Hour GFS?