snowmagnet

39 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

CMC takes away DCA’s flurries.  

Yesterday it gave us 14-16” ):

22 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Thanks Round Hill. But something has to start changing at 12z because my snow blower is being delivered in a half hour.

Just send that snowblower back and maybe things will change by 12z. 

I keep reminding myself that energy isn’t even on the west coast yet.  Anything can happen. 

46 minutes ago, GATECH said:

I figure we have another 84 hours until we need to start talking about January 25 2000.

Is that the storm that we were supposed to get until it changed coarse at the last minute and went straight to NY? 

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I agree with Ji the easiest way is just get the northern stream out of the way.   The flow is pretty clogged up so it's not like that would be a quick progressive storm. Probably 10-20" of heavy wet snow along the max axis. 

Option 2 opens the door to insanity. A juiced up stalled bomb. Those 30"+ solutions in the gefs for instance. But it's more likely to fail. 

A 30" bomb in early Dec would be historic on many counts. But, I'm trying to understand options 1 and 2  option 1 brings the precip in from Ky and develops a secondary low off the coast, right?  And Option 2 is a phase of the N and S jet streams which would bring a bigger amount of snow up the coast, right?  Don't we do very well with a phase?  I'm trying to understand why that is a problematic solution.  Do we chance the D.C. Snow hole in that situation?  

Thank you all for insights.  While the roller coaster ride is fun, I wish it could be a little easier.  

If we actually get this storm, is the timing now late Sunday into Monday? Also, I'm keeping track of the various models. What did the latest Ukie say?

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Both gefs and EPS building west based -nao in the long range. 

That is good for us, right? 

Trying to put the pieces together on latest run.  GFS, FV3, CMC and Ukie were on track for a nice hit while the Euro and JMA were drunk. Is that about right? 

We always need a perfect storm around here to get a HECS or even a SECS.  We can get a few inches out of a normal storm, but it’s always threading the needle for our biggest ones. And while we would like to see it perfectly modeled a week away, that almost never happens. 

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dead puppies

I have no words. This is incredible. I know it won’t happen like this, but the potential for early December is amazing. This is going to be a very long week! A lot of screen time for most of us! 

Also, you all have talked about this potential since before Thanksgiving if I remember correctly.  Jan ‘16 comes to mind when all the guidance had a snow storm this far out and for a week we were tracking who would get 3’ and who would just get 2’. 

So, reading between the lines, I take it the Fv3 is really good? 

How does the warming of the stratosphere affect us?  My limited understanding is that it can cause upheaval in the weather patterns, but I'm sure there is more to it.  

I’m hearing plenty of sleet now in Fairfax. I went out and measured about 1.5 inches before we changed over. 

Is this going to refreeze tonight?  

So glad that Fairfax Co finally closed. Lee Hwy is a mess, and I’m seeing roads closed in the county due to accidents. 

It’s snowing and sleeting heavily in Fairfax. I’m shocked that FCPS Va did not close. My road and sidewalks are covered in ice. 

I don’t know about the DP, but my temp around Fair Oaks is at 36.5. And my son just told me that NOVA closed for tomorrow. They were saying 2 hour delay earlier this evening.  

I found this board in 2015-16. I absolutely loved the excitement of the Jan '16 storm. Historical storms make me giddy. I drive my family crazy, so I was thrilled to find you all. I grew up in Waldorf, MD where we sometimes got more snow than Nova, but have lived in Fairfax for the past 26 years. I wish I was a little further west, but tracking just west of 95 is so much fun!  My friends  tell me I should have been a meteorologist, but I am not that smart so I rely on the intellect on this forum!  I actually resonate with several people on here, probably mostly Ji. I tend to stay optimistic until the bitter end, and get pretty depressed if the winter just stays wet.  Also, I work for Fairfax County Schools, so I'm very happy when they close. 

18 minutes ago, nj2va said:

What a terrible way to lose your mom, I'm sorry for your loss.  My aunt just passed away from brain cancer after a miraculous (?) survival of six years since initial diagnosis.  Watching her deteriorate at the end was tough to see.  Hopefully tomorrow's storm is a precursor for an active winter to keep your mind preoccupied with other things.  

Thank you all for the kind words. She was diagnosed just after Christmas with the same cancer as John McCain. My mom was always the one to patiently listen to my excited ramblings about the snow that was coming, so I have warned my dad to get ready for my winter snow madness.  

3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

So few enjoy the actual event anymore its always the chase and the buildup. That pretty girl or handsome guy across the room playing hard to get is rarely as hot when you're having a morning conversation with the bathroom door open

I love the chase, as probably most people on this forum.  It's great to find people as snow crazed as me!  I am thrilled about the winter outlook this year and being able to start so early is perfect. My mom passed away in July after 6 months of brain cancer hell and I definitely will need the distraction during the upcoming holidays.  Bring on the fantasy snow maps. 

12 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

We're starting Dec with the best pattern since 09 if the models have it right. It's been forever. Dec 2010 had an incredible block but it was a nina and we had one of the worst busts I've ever experienced. Boxing day storm literally ruined Christmas day for me. Lol. Weather is serious shizzle 

I distinctly remember that Boxing Day bust. After an amazing 09-10 winter, SC and GA got snow that day and we got the dreaded snow hole. I'm thrilled about this winter, but I heard someone say that we will be in for a drought next winter. Not sure how anyone can predict that, but I hope it's not true. 

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

As Founder & CEO of The Panic Room, I am ashamed of my last post asking for sanity. 

Carry on my brothers and sisters, carry on. 

May chaos reign as we track our earliest winter wx event in at least half a decade. 

Ground too warm. All snow melts on contact. 

That's what they said in 1987. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/11/10/weathermen-recall-the-record-veterans-day-snowstorm-that-totally-fooled-them-30-years-ago/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c60940691e8a

37 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Not in November

Nov 11, 1987. 13" in Southern MD. Just saying... it's not impossible. 

42 minutes ago, Ji said:

we got 11 inches in 1987....its happened before lol. I like how we are trending towards better instead of worse. This is usually where we start failing

I was in HS in Challes County, for the Veteran's Day storm.  It surprised all the mets-  I think we ended up with about 13". They sent us to school and then closed pretty quickly.