snowmagnet

FCPS VA 2 hour delay.  

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here's 18z GEFS.. just a crazy ridge south of the Aleutian Islands
https://ibb.co/9Wycxzf

Here's something I posted a few ago, https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY

With a Strong El Nino at the surface, and negative in the subsurface, and now +250dm -PNA appearing, it hits this +correlation, which I have found is better than surface conditions (in the historical dataset). 

That's a really warm pattern setting up there on the LR GEFS with the EPO going + too.. 

But is it right?  Isn't the EPS colder?

I’m wondering why the NWS hasn’t posted at least a Hazardous Outlook for the counties surrounding DC N and W since this could impact rush hour.  

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Its because they were expecting a big dog because it looked that way a couple weeks ago, and now that's no longer the case and many are very disappointed and frustrated. I am, too, but I'm not calling the end of winter because there will still be chances after tomorrow.

But the last 24 hours is evident that a big dog could be around the corner. 

I don’t understand why people have given up on the rest of winter when the models can’t predict anything in less than 24 hours.  

4 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

This works!  Almost back to where the GFS had me last week!  Lol

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Imagine being on the wrong side of this line. What a curse

I’m just barely in the purple. 

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

My thought is to prepare for potential snowstorm across Cecil county and points northeast. It’ll be a heavy wet snow and accumulate on elevated surfaces first. It could be tricky travel tomorrow morning and afternoon. The trend is undeniable at this point. Utilize mesos now and ensemble based products 

Is it possible to continue to trend south??  Fairfax county hopeful here…I want Yoda to pay $200

I think everyone is focused on the resurrection of tonight's storm! 

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

CMC was better than the RGEM this run. Rare to see them that far apart. 

CMC was the one that first saw the snowstorm that caused the FCPS debacle in Jan 2015

6 minutes ago, T. August said:

Well, different evolution at this point but the GFS did actually show a hit 7 days ago. 

Yes. Our area was in the Bulleye just 3 or 4 days ago. 

So if this south shift is real, when would the changeover to snow happen? 

I know I probably don’t know what I’m talking about, but I would think that the models are going to struggle with where the heavy snow sets up due to the dynamics off the coast. It just depends on where that low is positioned, right? If it’s OC, DC is out of the game. Doesn’t it need to be around the NC/VA line for  DC to get involved? Regardless, it looks like a significant part of our area could do well.  Lots of model watching over the next 12 hours! 

Of the short-term models, which can we trust? 

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

3k is going to track perfectly for us. Right on the VA/NC border it looks like. 

That would be fantastic. I’d like to get back a few of my 10” the GFS promised last week. 

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

A simple way to keep your sanity at this point is just to look at the EURO global for discrete threats in 5 day increments.  It really helps  to keep my expectations in check.  It is not going to snow this upcoming work week.  It was always a stretch to think VD storm would be cold enough and it won't be.  Will it snow PD weekend, or beyond, TBD.  Not inside 5 days yet.

 

Thank you.  I was wondering why all the cliff jumping and crankiness around here when we know that we usually have no idea of the outcome more than 4-5 days out. 

So the Euro is slightly south. There’s time.

Maybe we need a comeback thread here too. 

16 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Lack of snow is making everyone a bit salty. 

Exactly. I was just laughing as I’m reading all the snarky comments. 

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It’s not a bad run just shifts heavy precip a bit north.

A bit? I went from 10” to 2”. 
 

1 hour ago, konksw said:

Want to see Gfs further south 18z. Put us in the compromise jackpot. 

I’m in the bullseye on the GFS. It can stay put now. 

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

Hmm how accurate  is DT? Lol

Exactly 

If I’m not wrong, the GFS was the first to bring back the “dead” snow storm the first week of January, 2022. That was an awesome week. 
 

Also, the other models have had this storm before and lost it.  Sometimes the GFS is the first to resurrect. 

DT yesterday said there was no way the MidAtlantic would get snow next week.  So….

This is going way too slow.  I feel like this is the most important run of the season so far.