Scarlet Pimpernel

No doubt! Regardless of any snow chance, that's going to be quite a change when the front goes through. Ahhh, March!! Makes me think of an event in late March 1987 in northeast Ohio. It was like 75 degrees that last weekend. The next day they got 16" snow!! Perfect timing of a very strong front with a nice wave that propagated along it.

Make that 12-24 hours for the NAM!!

So yesterday I saw some crazy pickle flowers blooming...first ones of the season! (That's perhaps a bad subtle pun...daffodils --> daffy dills --> crazy pickles!)

Yeah...plus it's the NAM way out in range! Perhaps northern and western areas could possibly get more than snow TV. But even if I lived there, I'm not so sure I'd be overly excited about it (barring some significant change in the next day or so). Still, it will be quite a change from near 80 degrees today!

I lived in Atlanta for some years (while in grad school and after). Not being from "the South" originally myself, I never heard this expression before and didn't know quite what it meant. But knew it wasn't complimentary. I then learned it basically was the "Southern polite" way of saying "F-you" or calling someone a moron!! What a great, sarcastic phrase!! Reminiscent of how the British can insult you in a very polite manner, LOL! Another expression I heard from a friend of mine in the area, not sure if it's a "Southern" thing. But on a very hot, ugly humid day, he once said "It's hotter than two rats f**ing in a wool sock!" Which pretty well described it!

I saw some probability maps and there's a 90% chance of having a turkey >= 10 lbs.

Oh, and here I thought all the green on the GFS meant rain! Not grass! But I guess one helps the other, eh?!

@mappy...It's getting closer to tulip season!! Which means I'll of course be posting some photos for you in here when that time arrives!

Well, the fact that a large majority of people come in here primarily due to interest in winter weather doesn't negate the science aspect. While there's a share of weenie-ism (I even do that myself at times!), I think a lot of people do try to understand the dynamics/thermodynamics of winter events beyond the "how much will I get" kinds of questions. Hell, it is winter weather that got me into this field as a profession in the first place! But it is true that this place clears out faster than a Cleveland Indians game from the 1970s once it's evident there's not much chance of snow anymore!

I was thinking exactly the same thing. And it was a rather one-sided domestic political answer as well. OK, stepping away from the political waters here, so as not to wade too much into that.

So, would measuring the icicles be the equivalent of slant-sticking for ice accretion?

Wow, that is amazing! Like walking into a Bob Ross type painting.

Have fun, and get some good pix!!!

Thanks! Yeah, it's far from perfect but it's improved over the years based on feedback, etc., from the field and others. I can see how it wouldn't fare as well in the cases you mentioned. Sort of how MOS cannot handle such events, though the NBM isn't really "MOS" (it does use that as one input, though). In some instances we use other techniques for the "blended" forecast. Such as things related to thunderstorms and severe weather from the SPC, or using the FRAM for the ice accretion that you displayed above. Snow-liquid ratio is perhaps about the most tricky parameter, as I'm sure you're aware. You can get some really wacky values at times, which would affect the total snow amounts. I'd be glad to bend your ear some about the Blend sometime. Glad it's proving to be useful at least as a starting point in the forecast process. Though I work on some aspects of it, I would hesitate to say I'm all-knowing by any means. It's got a lot of "tentacles" so to speak. There are many who work on this, of course, and have "taken on" various elements. I also work with the whole implementation process (sometimes, I wish I didn't, but anyhow, LOL!!!) and getting that all organized. Which is a task in itself.

Having worked on aspects of the Blend, this is correct. There are indeed some 30-plus pieces of guidance involved which include various global models, their corresponding ensembles, short-range meso models, etc. Actually a lot more when you consider all the ensemble members, though different weather elements use different things. It's quite complicated, actually. The Blend takes in the newest updated cycles as they become available. Note that the Blend cycle time does not actually include models from that cycle (as they wouldn't be available yet), e.g., the 00Z Blend would include models prior to 00Z. So for example, the 00Z blend might include, say, the 12Z Euro, the 18Z GFS, 12Z Canadian, those respective ensemble members, the 22Z HRRR and RAP, the 18Z NAM, etc. You get the idea. The model fields are bias corrected in many cases and MAE (mean absolute error) weighted...though several weather elements use set, specific weights and some are not always bias corrected for things that cannot be. The URMA (unrestricted real-time mesoscale analysis) is used as the background field for bias correcting. It's quite the mental gymnastics exercise to figure out what cycle of what model comes in when, and matching the correct model forecast hour projections to the Blend cycle time and its forecast hours!

Reminds me of that shot of some weather person standing in front of a screen that said "winter storm Janus"... Except where they were standing covered up the "J"!!

So, how's our next fail shaping up?

Thanks. Yeah that certainly makes those plots pretty dubious on the amounts, though perhaps the areal coverage of that ptype might be somewhat more useful. I mean really, 1.50 inches of QPF is not going to give you 1.50 inches of ice of course, to use an extreme example...and which I have actually seen in the past!

Interesting info, thanks. I always take that with a HUGE grain of salt (or sleet?). So are the images that TT and others generate coming directly from model output of this, or do they use some algorithm of their own based on that?

Hahaha! Another bat signal calling @ravensrule on that one!

Exactly. Would need the NS to get in there more rather than staying back and effectively acting as a cold front that goes through later.

And the temps are really barely marginal even at 12z Sunday when precip starts. The cold air really doesn't get in until after that wave departs unfortunately.

Well from what I see it is definitely farther north with the precip. But it's like nearly 45 and rain.

Looks like temperatures are below freezing through at least 12Z Sunday then go up to low-mid 30s around 18Z-ish to 00Z? Then they tank.