Scarlet Pimpernel

OK...so we're looking at on the order of ~6 hours of decent snow from essentially all models at this point, with the NAM perhaps most aggressive. I presume we'll flip from mix/slop to all rain toward evening Wednesday at some point. (Just saw your later message, NAM keeps us icy into late afternoon apparently!)

Only the finest beer for the NAM, eh?!

OK so NAMature hour is over, time for the big models hahaha! All joking aside, if we're going to have half a chance to score well with this setup, what it shows is what we'd need.

NAM at range and all the other caveats, but still have to like what it shows. Precip arrives earlier, pre-dawn, and looks like ~4" by early morning Wed. Yeah snow maps suck, I know, but it is all snow through the end of the run at 12z Wed. So if (if... if!) it is correct that's a beat down to that point and would be more coming after. Cold at surface and 850s are as well. Whatever it's worth, fun to look at and get NAM'd at least once! ETA... Clearly one of the big factors is getting precip in fast, early, and at a good rate. Take advantage of the cold while it's there for as long as it can manage.

Same here. I don't mind a good debate/discussion with someone who won't resort to ad hominem attacks or comments, deny facts or science, or go on and on about culture wars. I may not agree with most of their positions (my views are certainly left of center), but I would be able to respect the difference of opinion and perhaps reach some consensus on a lot of issues. I cannot talk to someone who is so batshit crazy unreasonable and way out there in their ideology. There's just no way to converse or debate with that.

Wow man...my condolences having to deal with all that crap! I'd about lose it to be honest. And displaying the confederate flag at a fire department fair...dafuq?? Really? I lived in Atlanta for several years while in grad school up through mid-2001. Fortunately, since it was fairly open/liberal/cosmopolitan in Atlanta (and Georgia Tech's campus), I didn't see a lot of the other BS that goes on "outside" the metro area there, but I sure knew about it. At that time they still had the confederate flag prominently displayed as part of the GA state flag, and don't even get me started about the Stone Mountain carving (east of Atlanta). It was like entering a different world...heck, a different century!...when one got much outside Atlanta. I will say this...I always was proud to have John Lewis as my Congressman at the time (he's still there!), in the district I lived in. Got to vote for him like 3 times while there.

Absolutely...I don't think there's any way to avoid some kind of all-rain at some point with this setup. But it would be nice if that period occurred during a relative dry-slot as the main precip moved out.

Amen! Well, some of us are still here for the science and discussion (despite the dumpster fires). And whatever fun can still be gleaned. It does get annoying to see people show an unfavorable deterministic plot of the 384-h GFS 500 mb pattern and say "where's the great pattern, this sucks!!!", or "where did our day 12 storm go, it's gone, we're screwed!" Every.Single.Cycle. Or the feeling that if we're not getting a HECS, it's not worth it (as if those are a dime-a-dozen in these parts! People forget that the "H" in HECS means historical for a reason!). On a side note, Bob...I also like how you can really appreciate even the small events. There are a certain number of those over the years that just "stand out" despite not being huge. Some of them bookmark certain periods or add an exclamation point, so to speak. You've mentioned the Feb. 14, 2015 snow squall a few times, and that's perhaps the best example of that kind of event. 2" in the space of an hour followed by an Arctic blast. I still look back on that event as one of the neatest "little" events I can recall! And of course it ushered in a great period of winter at that time, too. Similarly, I actually liked the cold powder 1.5" snow I got on Feb. 1 this year. It was more than expected, lasted most of the day...it just kept on snowing lightly and wouldn't stop!...and it was in the 20s all day long. Nifty!

Probably isn't holding CAD quite enough...and yeah, it is a much better run than previously for sure! Sort of related, I think the Euro just kind of dry-slotted us instead at the end?

Absolutely, I agree. But just saw that when I looked at more detail. Much better than the no chance all rain scenario we were looking at yesterday.

Not to be a downer, but it is worth noting the FV3 does flip to rain and dumps ~0.75"+ in the 24 hours after that change-over. Of course the same amount or more falls before that, as snow/ice.

Yup, was thinking of that, as you mentioned it earlier (with 12Z GFS). That 12Z GFS had the low in western TN as I recall, this run of the FV3 looks to be around south-central TN, but it's hard to tell because the "stamp" covers up some of the detail and isn't necessarily the location of the "center" or closed region. But it does look close to there FWIW. Good trends today, that's for sure.

LOL!! Well, that makes sense then now that I think of it, if it considers ice as just rain (and wouldn't add to the snow total)! Crazy. Anyhow, I'm assuming there is ice sometime right after that snow plot is valid.

And low is a bit farther east in TN, without also being more north? (ETA: wait, I might be thinking of the ops GFS, not the FV3, from the previous cycle, but anyhow...)

How much of that is ice? Or, more precisely I guess, when does it change to ice? The TT precip plots for that model I know are awful, since it doesn't show mix/ice even when there is (it displays as rain). And yeah, I'm too lazy right now to check the temps...figuring someone already has, LOL!!

Any indication of surface temps through the time we have any ice?

Mids hang on a bit longer too, compared to 12Z yesterday (looking at TT output, limited amount of detail). At 12Z Wed. in today's run, 850 line is still well south of here...yesterday's 12Z had it already long gone at the same time. And even last night's 00Z, it was north of us (around the M/D line) at 00Z Wed.

God: I see you are dying of thirst, my son osfan24. Here, sip this water of life from my chalice that you may be revived! osfan24: But the water has a speck of dirt in it! And only 4 oz left!

Now that is some funny s*it! Wait...are you indirectly saying the Reaper sucks because the dirt he uses evaporates in the strong February sun angle?

That is quite an...iconic statement! And I never knew Chuck was the Euro!

Totally agree here, and I think WxWatcher made a similar commentary on the subject the other day. Heck, last year Bob made a specific thread calling this out because it got so bad. While I get the disappointment and frustration on how things have gone, do we need to see tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth with every comment in the medium range and specific event threads? It really has gone downhill the past couple of years it seems; sometimes it's unreadable to wade through pages of "next, this sucks, cancel winter!" posts just to get a few good pieces of information on what's going on. And some of the comments are just flat out incorrect and "out there". A few humorous cuts are great, but the constant negativity gets really old. I in no way claim to be the best or most knowledgeable poster on here, and sure, I can get just as frustrated when things don't work out, but I at least try to keep that to myself. I try to post things that are relevant, ask a question, add information however I can, and even throw in the humorous/snarky comment. There are a lot of knowledgeable people on here who have better and faster access to information on here than I do, and I always look to them for the intelligent discussion and input. So... @Bob Chill, @showmethesnow, @psuhoffman, @MillvilleWx, and a few others I probably forgot on here...please don't let the trolls or trollish comments push you away from this site. Your input is valuable and always appreciated despite some who flood these pages with crap. And @WxWatcher007, don't get pushed out either...the whole Reaper personality and Panic Room are a hoot, and I'm sure many like the humorous diversion! Somehow, I almost feel like I made this same post a year or so ago! Twilight Zone or something... Oh, and P.S... Millville, best of luck on the Radar Certification...really cool!

Bet you were saying that in Vegas, too, eh??

Cassandra!!! (For those who like Greek mythology) But seriously, I do recall some of that discussion on whether the weekend system(s) trending weaker might actually be detrimental to the mid-week system, i.e., not providing something to hold the high in. I'm kind of out for this weekend, beyond maybe seeing a bit of snow TV (if that?), and have come to terms with that. But the entire medium range has just turned out all wrong for us. Oh well...maybe it really is the weather being the weather despite all the prior positive indications. Very frustrating though. Hard to believe a couple days ago we were looking at upwards of 3 possible events, and now...well, it's like being sold a bill of goods!

True enough...and it's not only our area that has been frustrated or disappointed this year. While nobody was complaining in 2013-14 of course, what was the guidance like then? Not the signals that long-rangers looked at early on which may have indicated that year would be mediocre...but as time went on through the winter. I honestly don't recall how the models did then in either the short or medium range then. I think perhaps the most frustrating thing this year is that the guidance consistently has shown very good looks in the medium range, only to gradually fall apart. And other signals such as the MJO even were indicated to go into favorable phases, but the response has been less than desirable, apparently. And it wasn't just one model going wild with good looks, it was mostly across the board. Very difficult year in that regard, it almost makes one want to throw up your hands in even attempting to estimate the week 2 period. As you were asking the other day (don't know if anyone had an answer yet?), what the heck is causing the inconsistent response to what should be highly favorable MJO phases in the east?

Hey PSU...glad to hear everything went well, especially dealing with the road conditions on top of that! Hope your son recovers well. Somehow, I think as parents it's almost harder on us, LOL! I remember when my daughter had to get her tonsils out several years ago, she was 6 years old and had gotten strep several times up to that point. Though I knew things would be fine (and they were), it made me feel awful for someone that age have to go through that...nerve-wracking for sure!