Scarlet Pimpernel

Somehow reminds me of a sign on the door of a bar when I was in college...it said, "at 2AM, everyone looks good!" Same idea, perhaps!!

Fringed!!

This is true of any week in any winter, really. That certain time periods have more snow events compared to others is somewhat due to chance, somewhat also due to actual climatological factors I suppose. But that doesn't preclude any time between December and March. I remember in 2016, there was some discussion that we've had really good snows in early and late January, but none really around the 3rd week (maybe due to the fact that's the climatologically coldest time of year, and tends to be drier on average). Then we got the blizzard with 20"+ on the Jan. 22-23. Irony at its finest! I've been here since summer of 2001. Never saw a decent March snow at all until 2009. Then we got on a relative March heater with an event in late March 2013, three solid events in 2014, another in early March 2015, and yet another in both 2017 and 2018 (those two took a bit of the edge off a couple of crap winters, too). Heck, I saw good snow on my birthday (on the 25th) in back-to-back years in 2013 and 2014. In fact, I'd almost argue that I've seen more snow events in March than December since I've lived here...though of course one of those December ones was a HECS in 2009!

Ji is the anti-Jebman. Pessimism and optimism. Yin and Yang. Gotta have one with the other and all that in order to maintain balance in the universe. Thus endeth the zen lesson for today, grasshoppers! Remember, snow is just a state of mind...ahh, who the hell am I kidding!

It's basically 6-8 hours it appears, with about 0.40-0.50" QPF looking at DC area.

I remember that storm, in fact it was Feb. 25, 2007. And you're correct, it was an unexpected heavy thump of snow over several hours, on the order of 5-6" in fact. Forecasts I think were calling for mostly ice and sleet, but we got a paste job. The surface temperature was right around freezing with an isothermal profile I seem to recall hearing. When the precip came to an end, we were just above freezing and got some light drizzle for awhile after the heavy snow. Quite a neat event!

Don't know about Feb. 29 itself, but I do recall a couple of beginning of March events on either the 1st or 2nd there about, recently (2009, 2014 come to mind, neither of which was a leap year).

Can we prescribe a ton of Valium for Ji and tell him to call back later next week?

Haha very true! Admittedly maybe I got a bit caught up in that but mostly to respond to some of the more hyperventilating type of posts as to whether amounts were decreasing or not. Like I said, what the heck happened in here since this afternoon, when we have 3 possible threats currently on the table!

I don't recall 3 foot plus amounts from any GEFS member in this region but whatever, doesn't matter. A lot have been a foot or more. Fact is, average snow for the entire month of February is about 6-7" for DC-Balt. For the mean to show double that over the next 2 weeks to the end of the month...with many members showing even more...is quite a signal and enough to raise eyebrows. It could come to not much of anything in the end of course, but both the GEFS and EPS have been hitting the next couple weeks pretty hard. Don't get too caught up on exact amounts shown on those individual member maps, look at the overall signal.

You mean NAM math, right?!

LOL, I know, right?! My first thought on the "losing the heavy hitters" comment was...dafuq? All caveats with the snow maps aside and looking at it from a general perspective, GEFS still has 18 of 21 members that give DC/Balt/I95 region over 6". And several of those are quite a bit more than that. The mean is about a foot or so and this has been the case I think for a few runs now. Again not taking literally and of course there's no guarantee, but right now that's a helluva signal through the last week of February. I also like how the "gradient" into the higher amounts is pushed a bit east it appears. I don't know what the heck has happened in this thread or the other one covering this weekend specifically, but I swear a lot of the commentary suddenly went downhill even with us staring at the possibility of 3 events in the next 7-10 days! Crickey!

Just watch out for those vicious, cute bunnies!!

@Bob Chill...Yeah, the 2nd low on Sunday is weaker and as you say we have CAD in place behind the previous system (closely spaced). Also, check the 10m winds, they are easterly to slightly north of east as that low treks by, and then reforms off the coast. They never go southeast or southerly. And they are pretty light.

Can't recall if it was something you, or perhaps PSU, posted about his study...something about a weak stratospheric Polar vortex somehow mitigates phase 8 to not being as favorable (and you'd need to be more in phase 1)? I may not be remembering this totally correctly, and I have no idea of the merit of that study. Also, what is "ECMF"? Is that the Euro, or some other related model?

Holy Jaysus! LOL! I know those snow maps are not the greatest to use, but 16/21 (including the control) give the DC and I-95 corridor >6", and most of those are big hits. Weenie, indeed. On a more serious note, I'd be curious how much of this is after next weekend (which apparently the ensembles don't support?)...I'd take it nearly all? And how much includes the other potential mid-week next week?

Even Clemson didn't beat them by that much!

Good discussion and I don't really think you're "debbing" by expressing worthwhile caution. But overall, gotta like the looks coming up! As for final approach and bumpy landings, let's hope it's nothing like "Airplane (is that Ji in the airport tower removing the plug???):

I doubt we see that kind of ice in the end that the Euro depicts, but that was some impressive "digital ice" to be sure! My main take-away is that there is a storm with a fair bit of moisture, and plenty of at least low-level cold air nearby. I was in a bad ice storm in Atlanta years ago...around Jan. 2000 as I recall. And yeah, pine trees and ice are a bad combo. The oaks and maples, etc. were generally fine but all the pines and magnolia trees got shredded in that event. Large magnolia leaves plus 1/4-1/2" ice equals disaster for that tree.

I know...and I'm certainly not wrapped up in fine details like that (though perhaps that post sounded as if I were!). Mostly was just taken aback by that crazy ZR plot Bob showed, gotta admit that was rather incredible even if silly to consider right now! And yes, there were some serious changes.

The MJ(i)O is always spot-on in it's forecast, that's for sure! It never fails.

When I first read this quickly, I thought for some reason it said "omgnosnowmageddon"...or something like that!

I'm looking at the not very detailed maps on TT and see what you're saying on the 850s. The 00Z also has us losing the mids with what looks like a primary that tracks west of us and never totally dissipates in favor of the coastal. Similar thing to what the new 12Z shows, I guess...again, going off the limited detail on TT...but 12Z shows more coastal perhaps, and the high appears more entrenched too. Now, I don't know if 00Z also had us in more of a mix or ZR vs. snow, but at any rate obviously dissecting such details this far out is not worth it. Just trying to see differences, etc. Like you mentioned (in a slightly later post below), a ton of ice is probably not the most likely scenario here, but verbatim would be interesting. And it shows just how strong that high is even if the mid levels get bullied out.

Yes...like the trends we've seen in the past day or so. To be honest, I wasn't even looking at or thinking about this weekend, focusing more on middle of next week. But this is quite a change now in the next few/several days.

You hear that very often during football season!