Scarlet Pimpernel

Shhhhh! Don't tell the ENSO that, might jinx it!!

In general, I think this is the case. At risk of over-analyzing something that's still a week out (but I'll do so anyhow, haha!)...note that at 06Z today there was more energy hanging back, which resulted in the surface reflection still coming up toward us just after the strong cold front passed. It's not quite "as good" at 12Z as the low zips on to the north, but there's apparently a ton of lift along the front and (if you take verbatim), still gives a decent burst of snow. Reminiscent of Feb. 14, 2015 as others have said, though perhaps on a more dramatic scale if this pans out as shown. Regardless, that's one hella cold front breezing through!

FYP!! But seriously, that would be quite nice if it happens! At this point, I'll be glad to even have a nice, crisp Christmas rather than being in the 50s or raining or whatever, for a change. At least a little fresh wintry feel even if there's not much snow.

Wow, that's a shite-ton of snow. Gorgeous! I heard the reports from Binghamton, NY...just unreal. What we wouldn't give for that here... I admit my initial thought upon seeing this photo was someone inside the house saying, "OK, very funny, who the hell dumped all this popcorn on my doorstep!!"

I remember that, too. Was the March 2015 event (6.5" where I'm at, general 4-8" area-wide) also a case of a low forming along a cold front? Front went through in the early morning I recall, and a decent wave moved up shortly after during the day. Or that's how I recall how that evolved. I sort of remember @Deck Pic telling people beforehand to not freak out when they woke up in the morning and it's not snowing yet, because there was going to be a "lull" between the front going through and the main show. And like clockwork of course, people freaked out early that morning when nothing was happening. And sure enough, it began snowing like crazy starting around 9AM.

The JMA 850mb 0C line is *just* a bit outside!

We did have that, for The Storm Which Shall Not Be Named (*ahem* Dec. 2010 *ahem*). Ducking for cover! Ooops... 'd by @mappy, sorry about that!!

Very true! Of course, I could piss ice cubes onto sun-scorched blacktop pavement in mid-July and surpass last winter's snow total!! (Not that I've tried that, LOL!!) And agree, this event is one of the few bright spots of 2020. Nice to have something wintry in December!

Amen!! I've got the entire suite of his symphonies, Cleveland Orchestra recordings with George Szell as conductor. Also another copy of the 9th (my favorite), Cleveland Orchestra with Christoph von Dohnanyi. I was fortunate enough to hear the 9th live two times while in Atlanta in the late '90s, with the Atlanta Symphony. Once was with a guest conductor (can't recall who at the moment), and the other time was with Yoel Levi (their regular conductor/musical director at the time). That included the Atlanta Symphony Chorus, still heavily influenced by the great Robert Shaw.

Well...to paraphrase the title of a 1975 movie starring Michael Caine and Sean Connery, maybe that should be "The NAM Who Would Be King"!! (Actually "The Man Who Would Be King", a very fine movie by the way!!)

On a lighter note, all this talk of being "obtuse" makes me think of one of my all-time favorite movies, "Shawshank Redemption"...

No apologies needed...I don't think the particular thread you put that in matters all that much. I knew what you were talking about. What you mentioned could apply to damn near any event around here to be honest, in terms of model hugging, tossing, etc. I'll admit myself to being weenie-ish when it comes to snow (we all are to an extent, aren't we?), but I also have to respect the science and reality of what's being shown, even if it's not favorable.

If you're referring to @ers-wxman1's comment above, he may have intended that for the other thread about this upcoming event. I don't think he's being "obtuse". I'd rather have far fewer @Ji-type comments with sarcastic (and whining) posts about how a 240 hour forecast took away his 15" snow or how getting a foot is somehow a fail...and far more @ers-wxman1-type posts that are loaded with useful and informed content, even if a bit jaded at some people's attitudes and occasionally harsh on the reality of marginal setups!

@Jebman, is that you??

Well, instead of an underline for the "u", you could go for the German umlaut: "Have to set the fücking standard..." Has a nice ring to it when you pronounce the umlaut-u!!

I think that's the new, modern term for "persistence"!!

Just below Hieroglyphics, I believe?

Won't claim to be smart (hahaha!). But just eyeballing that, the difference appears to be subtle. Notice at 06Z, there is a western low center right along the Delmarva and another one to the east. The "eastern" one looks stronger (1000 mb), maybe the GFS keyed more on that at that time? At 12Z, the same thing...a "western" and "eastern" center. But in that case, the western center is stronger...in fact quite a bit stronger (992 mb), and the eastern low is farther out and weaker.

Wait...when was there a reference to the DGEX for this event??? Don't recall that offhand...fortunately!! Oh, and by the way, I think the NAM is just where we want it at this range, it's showing a slight improvement!

You get pummeled according to that legend-less map, and there's a hint of the @psuhoffman fringe zone in there too! (All in fun and joking, PSU, but you know that!!).

That's kind of what I was thinking. Maybe continue giving ensembles weight up to say, nearly 48 hours before the event (so sometime tomorrow for this event). Then almost exclusively deterministic thereafter. At least that's what I've gotten from what most have said over the past couple of years.

LOL!!! Well, this helps too...beer goggles for snow!

LOL yeah, I know...typically I look for where the initial lighter purple is and go from there, hahaha! The green, of course stands out most. Thanks for walking across my lawn!!

Throwing this out here randomly (not aimed at you, just using this plot as an example!). But damn, I never much liked these all-to-subtle color transitions, especially on the snow maps! My old(er) eyes have a hard time discerning those tight gradient transitions from the light blues to light purples, then darker purples, then pink!! LOL!! Now...get off my lawn you damn whipper-snappers, while I get my magnifying glass out!!

Looks quite similar, going by the overall "shape" and coverage. Biggest difference is that the amounts are noticeably bumped up (whatever it's worth, on these maps!)...presumably due to the enhanced CCB at 12Z vs. 06Z?