Scarlet Pimpernel

@yoda might possibly reply: "Mmmmm! Model pbp or model pbp not! There is no bot!" (ETA: "Mmmmm, poet I am!")

"Heavens, what a sound!!"

Agree. This is a very good overall summary. And I'll also take this opportunity to thank @MillvilleWx for the amazing discussions (even when on mids...not to be confused with meds!!) as well as @MN Transplant, @psuhoffman. Thanks for keeping it real and civil, regardless of what each model run shows. With a little luck where I'm at just on the northwest side of the beltway, it will be more sleety than rain through that time later Wednesday afternoon. I'm intrigued by the after-00Z Wednesday evening into late Wednesday night timeframe as well, if that deform band produces. Nobody around I-95 should be expecting a foot-plus, but a decent warning-level event seems quite possible. Which is far more than many of us have gotten in nearly 2 years.

Of all the 3 "main" models, the Euro is perhaps the most iffy, so to speak, for the metro areas and southeast. But even with that, it's still been a pretty solid hit or better (depending on location of course)...and not far from the GFS and CMC.

Here's how the last couple days of model runs seemed... --00/12Z GFS: Total beat-down, pummeling, crushed! --00/12Z CMC: Hold my beer...!

You don't have to even travel ahead in time (DeLorean or not!!) to likely be correct on that one!

The days are getting shorter as we approach the solstice. So 5 more days is actually less than that!!

Hopefully in a couple of hours, we can also sing "God save the Queen!" when the Euro comes out!!

Just be aware of the traveler's advisory!!

Is that how fuzzy it looks after a few of those beers in @Scraff's fridge??

OK, I admit...it took me a moment to realize what this said. At first glance, I thought it might be some kind of Hawaiian way of saying "Holy Sh*t!!" But I guess the meaning is the same regardless!!

<RR> There are medical treatments for that nowadays. </RR>

Exactly...essentially what I'm thinking. And even taking it verbatim with the (silly) snow maps, I take heart in the fact that a couple inches still gets into the cities, with a bit more where I'm at on the northwest side of town. As has been said, get that primary to transfer sooner, rather than when it's up near the OH River, and a lot of people would be quite happy (with the possible exception of Ji, hahaha!). I haven't really been looking at this in detail until just the past day or two, but has the transfer of energy trended one way or another over time?

Yeah. More an issue of the primary that's along the Ohio river it seems, messing up the thermals. As others indicated, if the transfer is quicker, or if the primary doesn't go that far north, that could do it for us. But not a bad overall look to have a week out. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles show... ETA: You know, even just going with the crazy snow maps (not worth a lot, I know!), about 1-2" snow still manages to get down into the cities and DC area at the end, with obviously much more as you go north and west. That's 1-2" more than we saw the other day!

Yup...seen lots of flakes, but none of them are of the snow variety!

You've got padded rooms in the Panic Room now? Whoa...that might be a game changer right there!

Careful, you might invoke RR with that comment!!

Can't be right, simply because it has a relative minimum over the @Bob Chill jackpot zone in MoCo!!

Echoing what others have already said...very sorry to hear this and my condolences to you. Take care of yourself and your kids, keep them close. And yes, hopefully we can get some snow to brighten things for you at least a little.

Yup...January 2019 is what I assume you're referring to from "almost 2 years ago". And anything would beat the 1.5" slush that I got last year for the "largest" event (and about 2" total for the season, woo-hoo!). ETA: Oh, and I think some people forget just how bad it was in December 2015, when we had a +11 degree departure from normal for the month. Just let that sink in for a moment. Eleven. Degrees. Above. Normal. When it's unpleasantly muggy and damp on Christmas Eve, you know December sucks. Thank God that kind of departure didn't happen in July! Of course, a few weeks later we had a storm for the ages, but anyhow...

I hear you on that! Would be nice to not trash the entire weekend with more rain, rain, rain (not like we need more terribly much!)...have that move out quickly and potentially allow some chance of snow early next week (even if small), would be great about now.

Ha! I was just about to write the same exact thing! (ETA: Well, almost...wouldn't really want to "call it a winter" after that in December. But I know what you mean!)

What is this "winter" you speak of???