Scarlet Pimpernel

No worries, I kind of thought you probably didn't intend for it to come out quite that way. Regardless, even an inch or two with some sleet is making this a lot more interesting than I thought a day ago!

That's not really what he's doing here (though you may not have intended it to come across that way)... This doesn't mean "discount the NAM", it simply states don't use the ridiculous 10:1 snow maps when we're looking at not all snow in a marginal setup, but to use the other algorithms instead for this situation (and to use the 3-km NAM nest). 'd by @high risk himself, LOL!

High scoring shootout, perhaps?? Sure would look like it.

And don't forget the Euro then coming in with precip amounts that would shame a desert.

I know, right?! Dafuq is the NAM trying to do here??

The Reaper is on Yelp now? Maybe you can take AAA discounts too... And @WxWatcher007, agree with your comments about disappointment (over snow failures) and managing that. Can't deny how frustrating this year has been of course, and I truly wish we could get a decent warning-level criteria event. That would be fun. But in the end, really, what does it all matter how much we do or don't get (other than concerns about long term climate stuff, which we won't get into here!)? I've had my share of personal and other issues, not to mention just how awful 2020 was in general for any number of reasons outside that. But I also try to find some of the beauty in the world via my photography hobby. One thing about this last year, I've probably taken more photos than I had in any other year just because I'm "looking" more and some things catch my eye. Beyond that, of course, are the people in one's life that you care about. Anyhow, sorry to get too philosophical here on a weather board, but just wanted to throw that out there!

I know there are people who say they know what's going to happen!

Good evening, snow weenies! I await your arrival so I can crush your dreams in about an hour and three quarters!!

Could be a little brisk later Thursday if that ends up being correct.

I was going to say "bite thy tongue!" given how many times someone has said that too early and then *poof* it goes to hell...but just maybe we'll be OK!

Gfs is broken bro. It can't even give us snow with a 981 at Hatteras and cad lol We get April-style CAD in late January now, don't ya know!!

Haha! Well, I can guess. Those were just a couple of examples off the top of my head that were "marginal", and was wondering how they would have turned out in the current environment. I would wager the result wouldn't have been so good.

Don't worry...I recall the old Eta model...and actually using the NGM while working at a private forecasting company many years ago!!

Thanks for your comments in here and in the main discussion threads on this subject and the overall trends, @psuhoffman. You've been very restrained in not getting too much into the "political" argument about whatever warming has been occurring or why, which is admirable. Though I can pretty well guess where you stand on that argument, and I'm of the same opinion just to put that out there (assuming I'm correct in my assumption on your stance...will leave it at that, though!). Agree with your thoughts too on why there is actually (paradoxically?) a relative increase in the "big dog" storms even as the environment in general is warming...more energy, and if you're lucky enough to have the right temperature profile, you'll get hammered with a big snow. Places far enough north or high enough in elevation would benefit the most as you say, from such storms. It is disheartening to see the trends of marginal events over time though, especially for places that are already geographically "on the edge" (like DC, or I guess you could say 40 degrees and south in general). Even just in the past couple of decades (length of time I've been in this area), I think I've observed it. Some of that could be bad luck in some seasons, but I think some is also the general trend. I wonder what the Jan. 2011 event (your PSU storm!) would have done in this year's climate, for instance. That really was kind of marginal, at least in and around the DC area. Where I'm located, it was at or a tad above freezing through the event pretty much, but it was pounding snow (8" in about 5 hours!). Very heavy, very wet, and you could practically hear some of it running off and melting almost right after the snow stopped (it then turned into a brick overnight). Would that be mostly rain in the current environment, specifically this year...just 10 years later now? That's just one example. Another is...remember the late Feb. 2007 event (Feb. 25 sticks in my mind for the date)? Nearly isothermal sounding from the surface up through the boundary layer and right near freezing. We were forecast to get ice/sleet mostly from that, but we ended up with heavy snow for awhile, like 5-6", followed by some light drizzle after it ended. It stuck to everything. I wonder what that would have done now?

Would that even make double digits??

Well I guess relatively speaking most anything this year is a "crush job"!! And yeah, it is sort of getting there. But the thing is, comparing to the 12Z GFS this is a notable shift north with the precipitation and snow, from what I see. We were on the very northern edge of any real snow then, it was close (and everyone was all excited at that trend at 12Z). It appears to have trended that way through all of today's cycles. Besides, it's far better than the huge letdown the Euro and EPS gave us this afternoon!

To go full-on chemical geek, I guess he should have typed in "HCO2" there for Howard County!!

Is it even possible to drive that fast on I-95??

Lifebuoy to the rescue!

That's a pretty good way to describe it I think. Shorter vs. medium/long range threads, and specific dated events that have real potential (e.g., Jan. 25). I'd assume that if the Jan. 29 system continues to look real, we'll have a dated thread for that one, too.

Is that the equivalent of "Shut up, Chuck!"??

We need another thread titled "The Gap between the January 25th and January 28th Threats and Potential Threats Beyond the 28th but Not Quite Really Long Range". That ought to clear things up, LOL!!

LOL, I know, was just making the stereotypical joke about the NAM there! In all seriousness, I do recall some discussion about that December event and the NAM's relatively good performance (with the thermals?). Of course everyone jokes about the NAM beyond about 48 hours, but it's not terrible when you get closer to "go" time (36-48 hours and before). Certainly for the thermal profiles. I've also heard the NAM nests are superior to the parent 12km grid.