Scarlet Pimpernel

Reaper opened a Five Guys franchise in the Panic Room? Cool!

Thanks, that makes sense. I'm certainly not discounting the NAM solution out-of-hand at this point. Thing is, as @Bob Chill mentioned, only a couple or so days ago this was looking like all but a straight-up rainstorm for much of the area, and it's now trended better, apparently (for wintry type precip). In fact, before this initially fell apart a few days ago, I don't even recall the Thursday event being looked at as snow per se anyhow. The indications were that Tuesday and Thursday could be significant icing events earlier on. That there's now even a chance for some kind of snow before a flip to sleet/ice (or whatever) is a big change in the past couple of days.

@high risk can verify this one way or another, but I don't think it's quite right to say the NAM has a cold bias?

It was a true masterpiece! Exquisite work of poetic art! Worthy of saving.

Yeah, not sure what the precise interplay is between temperatures and rates for ideal accretion, when below freezing. I'm sure the thermodynamics is a bit complicated when we start talking about those details. Of course, if it were 15 degrees and pouring rain, that would presumably be different than, say, 31 and doing the same.

What does it have for temps around that time at least compared to 12Z?

So...anyone else getting concerned about PSU's snow pack?? (All in jest, PSU!!)

Not only that, but the burger was actually soy-based which completely ruins the mid-levels from the start!

Some photos...

Agree. It was Shakespeareian, such as it is! Hell, Cicero or Marcus Aurelius couldn't have done better if they were here now!

This is excellent! Up there with @Jebman's epic rant years ago!

Looks like mostly sleet now, but has gone back and forth between freezing rain and sleet most of the day so far. Went for a Jebslide (@Jebman, I think that's an appropriate term for a Jebwalk in ice??), kinda dangerous out on areas that weren't salted. Stayed mostly on the crunchy grass. Just eyeing it, looks like we're pushing maybe close to 0.2" accumulated on some branches I would guess. Hope to post photos when I have a chance later on at some point.

Hmmm, funnily enough! (seeing myself out, exiting stage left! )

Roman numerals!

So given that, if I put my car up on tall blocks I can avoid getting it ice covered! Brilliant!

Long range thread is getting interesting (or unhinged?) with PSU taunting/calling out Wentz for thinking that perhaps a rainy solution Tuesday would improve things for Thursday! I see a cage match coming!!!

I'd like that just about as much as watching a continuous loop of John Elway's " The Drive", Earnest Byner's "The Fumble", and Michael Jordan's "The Shot" over Craig Ehlo, all while getting a root canal! (Saying all this as a Cleveland fan, LOL!!)

Yeah that was a pretty quick turnaround. I wasn't expecting really any snow this upcoming week, but was sort of counting on what you say...a mix/icy mess for a couple of events with low-level cold air pretty well entrenched.

Could be like #67!!!

Oh hey, you found the Rosetta Stone!!

Can someone post the surface wind speeds in furlongs per fortnight, please??

Yeah, sort of noticed that. And Tuesday is looking more like a Monday night into early Tuesday event according to the ICON.

FWIW, the 12Z ICON has ~0.25-0.50" or so generally across the region through later Saturday night. Stripe of 0.50" cuts right through the DC area. The amounts are not as high or as expansive compared to 06Z, but still (and that could just be run-to-run variation). Temperatures generally in the 25-30 degree range.

Good points. I admittedly do click through those ptype maps initially for a quick overview...but mostly to get some idea of the surface positions, extent of precip and how it moves, etc. I already knew that the Tuesday potential was likely to involve a lot of ice, so then immediately looked at the surface temps (cold!) and other parameters above that level. And sure enough, it's clear the algorithm wasn't handling it right. No need for anyone to freak out for sure.

We get the full gamut of precip types for next Tuesday in the LWX point forecast! Everything but hail! Now to be fair, at this point what else can you do, honestly? Monday Night A chance of snow before 1am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%.