Scarlet Pimpernel

Well...to paraphrase the title of a 1975 movie starring Michael Caine and Sean Connery, maybe that should be "The NAM Who Would Be King"!! (Actually "The Man Who Would Be King", a very fine movie by the way!!)

On a lighter note, all this talk of being "obtuse" makes me think of one of my all-time favorite movies, "Shawshank Redemption"...

No apologies needed...I don't think the particular thread you put that in matters all that much. I knew what you were talking about. What you mentioned could apply to damn near any event around here to be honest, in terms of model hugging, tossing, etc. I'll admit myself to being weenie-ish when it comes to snow (we all are to an extent, aren't we?), but I also have to respect the science and reality of what's being shown, even if it's not favorable.

If you're referring to @ers-wxman1's comment above, he may have intended that for the other thread about this upcoming event. I don't think he's being "obtuse". I'd rather have far fewer @Ji-type comments with sarcastic (and whining) posts about how a 240 hour forecast took away his 15" snow or how getting a foot is somehow a fail...and far more @ers-wxman1-type posts that are loaded with useful and informed content, even if a bit jaded at some people's attitudes and occasionally harsh on the reality of marginal setups!

@Jebman, is that you??

Well, instead of an underline for the "u", you could go for the German umlaut: "Have to set the fücking standard..." Has a nice ring to it when you pronounce the umlaut-u!!

I think that's the new, modern term for "persistence"!!

Just below Hieroglyphics, I believe?

Won't claim to be smart (hahaha!). But just eyeballing that, the difference appears to be subtle. Notice at 06Z, there is a western low center right along the Delmarva and another one to the east. The "eastern" one looks stronger (1000 mb), maybe the GFS keyed more on that at that time? At 12Z, the same thing...a "western" and "eastern" center. But in that case, the western center is stronger...in fact quite a bit stronger (992 mb), and the eastern low is farther out and weaker.

Wait...when was there a reference to the DGEX for this event??? Don't recall that offhand...fortunately!! Oh, and by the way, I think the NAM is just where we want it at this range, it's showing a slight improvement!

You get pummeled according to that legend-less map, and there's a hint of the @psuhoffman fringe zone in there too! (All in fun and joking, PSU, but you know that!!).

That's kind of what I was thinking. Maybe continue giving ensembles weight up to say, nearly 48 hours before the event (so sometime tomorrow for this event). Then almost exclusively deterministic thereafter. At least that's what I've gotten from what most have said over the past couple of years.

LOL!!! Well, this helps too...beer goggles for snow!

LOL yeah, I know...typically I look for where the initial lighter purple is and go from there, hahaha! The green, of course stands out most. Thanks for walking across my lawn!!

Throwing this out here randomly (not aimed at you, just using this plot as an example!). But damn, I never much liked these all-to-subtle color transitions, especially on the snow maps! My old(er) eyes have a hard time discerning those tight gradient transitions from the light blues to light purples, then darker purples, then pink!! LOL!! Now...get off my lawn you damn whipper-snappers, while I get my magnifying glass out!!

Looks quite similar, going by the overall "shape" and coverage. Biggest difference is that the amounts are noticeably bumped up (whatever it's worth, on these maps!)...presumably due to the enhanced CCB at 12Z vs. 06Z?

@yoda might possibly reply: "Mmmmm! Model pbp or model pbp not! There is no bot!" (ETA: "Mmmmm, poet I am!")

"Heavens, what a sound!!"

Agree. This is a very good overall summary. And I'll also take this opportunity to thank @MillvilleWx for the amazing discussions (even when on mids...not to be confused with meds!!) as well as @MN Transplant, @psuhoffman. Thanks for keeping it real and civil, regardless of what each model run shows. With a little luck where I'm at just on the northwest side of the beltway, it will be more sleety than rain through that time later Wednesday afternoon. I'm intrigued by the after-00Z Wednesday evening into late Wednesday night timeframe as well, if that deform band produces. Nobody around I-95 should be expecting a foot-plus, but a decent warning-level event seems quite possible. Which is far more than many of us have gotten in nearly 2 years.

Of all the 3 "main" models, the Euro is perhaps the most iffy, so to speak, for the metro areas and southeast. But even with that, it's still been a pretty solid hit or better (depending on location of course)...and not far from the GFS and CMC.

Here's how the last couple days of model runs seemed... --00/12Z GFS: Total beat-down, pummeling, crushed! --00/12Z CMC: Hold my beer...!

You don't have to even travel ahead in time (DeLorean or not!!) to likely be correct on that one!

The days are getting shorter as we approach the solstice. So 5 more days is actually less than that!!

Hopefully in a couple of hours, we can also sing "God save the Queen!" when the Euro comes out!!