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BooneWX

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Everything posted by BooneWX

  1. BooneWX
    Yea I’m still not buying it but that’s more of a gut feeling than anything. I mean at Hr 32, it’s a 996 low in Banner Elk with zero signs of coastal transfer.
  2. BooneWX
    I’m no expert but looking at some of the “sleet” soundings, it sure seems like it’d still be a Snow/Sleet mix. The warm nose is there but not egregiously in our area. I imagine it’d be snowing fatties and mixing with a bit of sleet.
  3. BooneWX
    If this track shown on the short range models unfolds, have we seen anything like it?? I truly can’t recall anything remotely similar.
  4. BooneWX
    HRRR is a hell of a front end thump, that’s for sure
  5. BooneWX
    26 imby with thick clouds rolling in. Not that it’s going to matter a ton, but hopefully we can cap off any heating by the sun and stay locked in the 30s.
  6. BooneWX
    GFS PASTE BOMB. See y’all in the morning.
  7. BooneWX
    Plenty of time indeed. I’ve got a weird feeling about the short range models. If the gfs holds serve, I think we’ll see the short range get a clue tomorrow but time will tell.
  8. BooneWX
    Anybody got the clown? Mine is stuck at hr 28 for the snowfall
  9. BooneWX
    That comma on the backside means BUSINESS
  10. BooneWX
    Don’t let any model run distract you from the fact that we were golfing and fishing 2 weeks ago. Just enjoy the moment.
  11. BooneWX
    I’ve lived in the foothills a vast majority of my life and the rule of thumb I’ve always had in most of these setups is that sleet overperforms and saves the day during a transition. Let’s hope that rule of thumb continues but I definitely think my area spends more time as snow, snow/sleet than much else. The warm nose is prevalent on the sounding but it’s not honking at Zr.
  12. BooneWX
    The trend with Zr in the Euro is highly concerning. Gives me 7 inches of wet snow and over a half an inch of ice. Cut that in half and it’s still lights out.
  13. BooneWX
    The cutoff is going to be gnarly on the east side. If you look at the town by town probabilities, it’s even more evident. https://www.weather.gov/gsp/winter
  14. BooneWX
    Beautiful deform band swinging through at 51 to put the final touches on the storm
  15. BooneWX
    Icon is absolutely unloading on WNC at hr 42
  16. BooneWX
    Seems like it’s had really bad feedback issues the past several runs. Not sure what’s up with it but it also performed miserably with the storm a week or so ago if I remember correctly.
  17. BooneWX
    HRRR was setting up to be a really nice hit for western NC on the 18z.
  18. BooneWX
    Diving into the 850s on the GFS, it looks good for almost everyone, including most of the foothills after a brief trip to the 1-2 degree mark. Let’s hope it continues at 18z but like we said earlier - wildly consistent.
  19. BooneWX
    Oh I think the Hendersonville area will be in the rake zone as well
  20. BooneWX
    The eastern slopes are going to be absolutely buried with upslope flow. I’ll be shocked if there aren’t a few major over performances along the escapement. That’s gotta be a nice treat for folks who typically miss out on NWF
  21. BooneWX
    Incredibly bullish
  22. BooneWX
    Feeling optimistic here in eastern Burke. Several inches of snow with a coating of sleet were the sledding conditions dreams were made of as a child
  23. BooneWX
    The gfs has been absurdly consistent the past 4-5 runs.
  24. BooneWX
    GFS remains bullish for western NC. It hasn’t blinked yet.
  25. BooneWX
    CAD always seems to come in stronger than modeled. That’s why I won’t buy the complete takeover by sleet east of the mountains just yet for any period of time.
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