BooneWX

36 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

 

What’s even wilder is that Mt. Washington is literally located in the stratosphere tonight. Those are true polar vortex winds. 

You could make a very convincing argument over the past decade that the worst location for snow in NC is the Lee/escarpment. It sounds asinine given the CAD potential and higher elevation but dang. Downsloped on flow and eastward tracking upper lows. And many storms phase too late for us to be part of the fun. 2018 was nice but holy cow I don’t remember a time where we’ve been in snow poverty worse than this stretch of years. 

I officially have more rain in the month of January at my location than inches of snow over the past 3 years. 
 

edit: forgot the upper level low in Feb 2021 that brought me a few surprise inches but still pretty close 

I’m personally pulling for a record breaking SER that cuts the storms through the plains and ends this deluge of water each week. 

Just hang on, happy hours gfs never disappoints

33 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Get your boats ready.. 

6.3 inches on the year already! This week should get me close to 7 and a half. 
 

I sound like a broken record but it’s an absolutely absurd pattern that we’ve been in since October. I thought 2018 couldn’t be topped but we’ll be well on our way in WNC.

26 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm sure it will be in the 20s and windy for the opening of trout season in April

Hey now. It makes finding a rock to stand on all that much easier. 

2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

It is a crying shame that in the extended range in January we get a low that tracks south of us and we still cannot pull a snowstorm out of that scenario.  I don't care what you say. That is a sign of a crap pattern if there ever was one. 

I’ve tried to dial back my pessimism the last few weeks since it’s still early but I think it’s safe to say our odds in the SE for a synoptic event this winter are trending down quick. Wouldn’t totally be shocked to see a fluke event such as an upper low digging at the perfect time but this just might not be our year for a biggie. Hope I’m wrong! On the bright side, for most you, snow is possible through April. It might be a backloaded winter in the High Country anyways, because it seems like our pattern always goes harshly cold in March lately.

Thank goodness! Saw 2 days of dry weather on the forecast and started to get concerned it was going to become a trend. 

One thing I really liked that I haven’t seen in a while: the models despite a pesky SE ridge were honking with CAD signals. That gives me some optimism that we could at least score a Miller B type of setup in the next few weeks. 

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 What a contrast to KSAV, which has had only 5.85" since way back on September 12th vs a normal of 12.54"! This comes out to only 47% of normal over the last 4 months. But this is fairly typical of La Niña, which favors the driest in the SE closer to the SE coast thanks to the prevailing southeast ridge mainly November through March.

 Here's the latest SE Drought Monitor map, which comes from here:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230110/20230110_southeast_none.png
 
 

Interesting! We’ve been so wet in western NC that I was frankly oblivious to any drought conditions this close by. Other than 2016, I can’t really recall when we’ve truly been substantially below average in this part of the SE. We had a 2 week dry period this august and no lie, I think that was the first time I’ve mowed my lawn and had bone dry wheels in 3+ years. 

10 hours ago, wncsnow said:

With the big trough digging in the midwest, it's going to get super wet and its not exactly dry currently. I can see some flooding issues coming soon. 

I’ve had over 16 inches of rain since the beginning of November. I’d trade snow for an immediate torch and dry weather if given the opportunity. 

My god I miss living in the mountains 

If it’s going to be warm, I just wish it could be dry. At this juncture I’d trade snow for no rain until March 1st.

On my second snow shower of the day down in the hills. A pleasant surprise.

My goodness that radar is juicy upstream 

Looking forward to Friday. I’m in a weird spot in the foothills that always seems to see some non-accumulating token flakes flying during robust events. Might be all I see this winter so I’m going to soak it in!

14 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Please look at the composite ensembles for the other major LR models.  Criminy folks

I was just making a generalization about the pattern and likelihood of a Nina year producing Feb cold. We need those same ensembles to start showing a change in the medium range because they’ve been showing a long range “change” for about 2 and a half weeks.

55 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

06z GFS punts the pattern change till February, if at all

The latter would probably be more likely in a Nina year. We desperately need things to flip this month or it might be time to start getting the lawn mower serviced.

It’ll be great to have a +PNA, but one thing that concerns me is the position of the ridge on the west coast. The center of that ridge being in the eastern pacific just west of Seattle ain’t gonna cut it unless you’re moving to Ohio shortly. 

The mountains are about to feast. I may make the trek from the hills to see it. An afternoon walk on the parkway may be calling on Saturday.

Luckily, a PV disruption is looking very imminent, so I’d assume long range models will start to trend colder. 

Mood

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Bradford Pears will be blooming in 7 weeks

Nah, El Niño is going to spring up at just the perfect time to delay that and give you a March and April full of cold rain dreams.