BooneWX

Looks like McCllellanville might be the landfall point soon. 

Ian appears that he may jog into the coast, south of guidance. That could have a big impact downstream - especially for those that were previously on the cuff. 

If this thing comes in at Pawleys, it’ll have implications downstream. 20 mile wiggle south as the crow flies.

My eyes may be deceiving me but it appears to have commenced a west of north movement now… if so, Garden City Beach? 

Tomorrow is going to be a gnarly day across the entire state of NC except maybe extreme SW sections. I think that left side is going to be nastier than we realize as well with the transition to more of a Nor’easter style system. 

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

Lots of hype from the local mets today about the potential for severe storms and it's been a dud.

Speak for yourself! We’re under our 4th warning of the evening in Burke.

spooky evening down here in the foothills 

Every winter this thread reminds me how much I miss living in the higher elevations. Congrats to everyone with snow on the ground this morning! Not gonna lie though - I hit 16 this morning and warmer days fishing and hiking are calling my name now. 

Out of curiosity - where does everyone stand on the season for snowfall totals at the moment? 

Could be another good score for the mountains and down east if the gfs evolution is true. For the western piedmont and foothills, I wouldn’t hold our breath. I’ve seen that surface output for enough years to know it’s cloudy day/sprinkles scenario. 

3 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Appalachian's kill the deform band on the CMC

 

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

A tale older than time for those of us just east of escarpment lol

30.9 with light rain. Everything elevated is coated! Sidewalks are also slick. Never underestimate CAD….

27 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas...

EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. 

 

And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. 

 

We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January. 

For what it’s worth, can anyone recall snow on the beach 3 weekends in a row? It’d be wild if we trend that way.

I have a tiny amount of ice/snow from the Jan 16th event left on my back porch. Ya know the saying.

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

That would be bad.

Hard pass. Hope that high scoots out even faster and it’s cold rain.

12.4 in Icard this morning. 

Not a complaint but it is incredible how downsloping can overcome dynamics so easily. 

Enjoy it boys! 35.6 here in eastern Burke with light rain. Downsloping wins again lol. 

35.8 at my place in eastern Burke and still seeing all rain… yikes!

Man it is DARK here. Like summertime thunderstorm dark but nothing falling other than sprinkles yet. 

The ultimate sweet spot is is certainly Madison/Mayodan to Eden and reidsville to Danville. Almost no mixing in most events and can truly score on any opportunity. 

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Per capita, I want to throw Roanoke Rapids in the mix. They may not get as many nickel and dimes as the foothills locations, but buddy — they can get monsters

As a lifetime foothills resident, we rarely get nickel and dimes lol. Downsloping kills almost any single opportunity that’s not a Miller A. We can score on Miller B’s but even then, the dreaded dry slot can show up. 
 

edit: there’s also another non-talked about foothills “pain” element. We watch areas 10 miles (or less) to our west score on 10+ snowfall events a year with NWF

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Models are honing in on the leeside downsloping and a leeside maximum, gonna be some big winners and losers and in close proximity. 

 

It was 16 here this morning. 2nd coldest of the season 

Probably one of those scenarios where you wouldn’t want to be in Morganton or Lenoir but you may be in business in say, Taylorsville, Hickory or Lincolnton.

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Still too of late of a phase for us

The trend is our friend. We’re oh so close!

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Didn’t translate to big totals but holy smokes that’s the look we’re going for 

Spoke too soon for you boys down east