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BooneWX

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Posts posted by BooneWX

  1. You could make a very convincing argument over the past decade that the worst location for snow in NC is the Lee/escarpment. It sounds asinine given the CAD potential and higher elevation but dang. Downsloped on flow and eastward tracking upper lows. And many storms phase too late for us to be part of the fun. 2018 was nice but holy cow I don’t remember a time where we’ve been in snow poverty worse than this stretch of years. 

    • Like 2
  2. 33 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

    Get your boats ready.. 

    qpf_acc-imp.us_ma (1).png

    6.3 inches on the year already! This week should get me close to 7 and a half. 
     

    I sound like a broken record but it’s an absolutely absurd pattern that we’ve been in since October. I thought 2018 couldn’t be topped but we’ll be well on our way in WNC.

  3. 2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

    It is a crying shame that in the extended range in January we get a low that tracks south of us and we still cannot pull a snowstorm out of that scenario.  I don't care what you say. That is a sign of a crap pattern if there ever was one. 

    I’ve tried to dial back my pessimism the last few weeks since it’s still early but I think it’s safe to say our odds in the SE for a synoptic event this winter are trending down quick. Wouldn’t totally be shocked to see a fluke event such as an upper low digging at the perfect time but this just might not be our year for a biggie. Hope I’m wrong! On the bright side, for most you, snow is possible through April. It might be a backloaded winter in the High Country anyways, because it seems like our pattern always goes harshly cold in March lately.

  4. 2 hours ago, GaWx said:

     What a contrast to KSAV, which has had only 5.85" since way back on September 12th vs a normal of 12.54"! This comes out to only 47% of normal over the last 4 months. But this is fairly typical of La Niña, which favors the driest in the SE closer to the SE coast thanks to the prevailing southeast ridge mainly November through March.

     Here's the latest SE Drought Monitor map, which comes from here:

    https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230110/20230110_southeast_none.png
     
     A6EB3F80-156E-4018-BAB8-62C555A75DE5.thumb.png.98d1331ca173926a25914233be0fbddc.png

    Interesting! We’ve been so wet in western NC that I was frankly oblivious to any drought conditions this close by. Other than 2016, I can’t really recall when we’ve truly been substantially below average in this part of the SE. We had a 2 week dry period this august and no lie, I think that was the first time I’ve mowed my lawn and had bone dry wheels in 3+ years. 

    • Like 1
  5. 10 hours ago, wncsnow said:

    With the big trough digging in the midwest, it's going to get super wet and its not exactly dry currently. I can see some flooding issues coming soon. 

    qpf_acc-imp.us_ma.png

    I’ve had over 16 inches of rain since the beginning of November. I’d trade snow for an immediate torch and dry weather if given the opportunity. 

    • Like 3
  6. 14 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

    Please look at the composite ensembles for the other major LR models.  Criminy folks

    I was just making a generalization about the pattern and likelihood of a Nina year producing Feb cold. We need those same ensembles to start showing a change in the medium range because they’ve been showing a long range “change” for about 2 and a half weeks.

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