BooneWX

15 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Nothing would surprise me anymore. Shoot it might even be Columbia to Florence SC.

Yep and I don’t like the amount of northern stream dominated runs we’ve seen so far. Clipper energy just doesn’t pan out for us. I’ll be happy for folks if they score but man. Long gone are the days of overrunning events and gulf lows (that don’t cut west).

44 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

So somewhere between skiing and golf.  Got it.  

Fortunately no warm weather regardless. The last frame is a suppressive look with a monster 1045 high over the Ohio valley. No driving, chipping and putting, just nose bleeds and chapstick. 

29 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Just a lil run to run variability 

Regardless, I’ll rejoice in not having to wear shorts this Christmas. It’s sad that a seasonable to cold Christmas feels like you’re scoring an absolute coup of a victory.

A reminder that big storms in this region tend to honk loudly and honk early on the models. Idk if I’d consider the last few days honking, but the signal has been consistently there time and time again. Carry on.

Predicting the polar vortex and where the lobes of energy head is always a crapshoot but man does it look stretched and warped on LR guidance. 

45 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

12z GFS looks great 20-25th. All the ingredients are there. Pattern is good, wish there was more southern jet energy but miller B or a clipper bombing out with enough blocking to work seems to me what our storm mode would be. Fast paced pattern is an understatement but blocking seems to set up with a ridge over the Rockies at least giving us a 3-5 day window to score 

And the signal has been there for not only days but borderline a week now. 

5.15” in the big town of Granite Falls over the past 24hrs. 

2 hours ago, mercurydime said:

2.68 on this rain event.  Winds starting to kick up late morning behind the front.  

Wind has kinda always creeped me out. 

Ever since Helene, the wind has given me a bit of anxiety. Our house was so fortunately lucky that day to lose trees all around it but have none hit it. I’m surrounded by very mature pines and when I get 4+ inches of rain like this, even 20-30 mph gusts make me nervous. 

Are we ever going to figure out how to have normal rain again? Over 3 inches today alone here after a bone dry stretch. I swear it’s either drought or flooding rains. 

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Are we still thinking cold early Jan? I have been focused on mid range 

Yes, the post Christmas timeframe closer to New Years has the most promise since the PNA looks like it’ll build and the MJO likely heads into phase 7. I think anything before then is gravy we should appreciate .

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

MJO effects are overblown sometimes. Hopefully that's the case here 

I do think these past few weeks have been weird and I’m not sure any normal thinking for the LR is completely in play. Optimistic we’ll get some help in the eastern Pacific and maybe for once the background state isn’t so hostile.

Having seen the MJO projections yesterday, I’m sort of surprised the ops aren’t showing more warmth in the mid-long range. I’d cash out on the 21st for the rest of winter with what the Euro is showing.

7 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Monday January 11 we had a low of 4 at GSP.  By lunch time on Tuesday it was snowing.   On Thursday had a second gulf system dumping more snow.  Missed school nearly a month.  

I crave a Miller A like I crave a winning franchise in the city of Charlotte.

Just now, BooneWX said:

Just haven’t had a chance to be active today. Thoughts are the same. Guidance is rather split but my main takeaway is that I find it interesting the Euro AI is so persistent with the cold and storm threats. It did a pretty good job sniffing out the last cold blast. 

Also the days leading up to Christmas look interesting to say the least

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Quite quiet

Just haven’t had a chance to be active today. Thoughts are the same. Guidance is rather split but my main takeaway is that I find it interesting the Euro AI is so persistent with the cold and storm threats. It did a pretty good job sniffing out the last cold blast. 

The models yesterday generally had the MJO in the COD which lended credit to a colder pattern since it avoids the influence of phases 5&6. Last night, the models honed in on it progressing from 5 to 6 and ending Dec in 7 without entering the COD. That’s why we’re in the mode of flip flopping. 

5 minutes ago, Wow said:

So the 12z ECMWF attempted a triple phaser today.  The leading s/w stole most of the thunder on the sfc reflection but the upper air pattern is gold  Look at that PNA ridge!  850mb temps.. almost brings -20C down to FL.

There was so much to like not only from that run, but the GFS as well. Ensembles trending colder in the medium and long range too! Haven’t seen the EPO plots but maybe @GaWxcould lend a helping hand.

I lost the link to the tweet but we’ve had a remarkable amount of snowpack expansion to our north. There’s now a solid pack to transport air from Siberia straight into the CONUS. Euro showing upper Midwest banana highs to boot.

Ensemble trends have been incredible today. 

7 hours ago, wncsnow said:

AN is probably still the higher likelihood solution because the pacific is raging in the medium range but this isn’t your average SER death dome warmth - it’s mild pacific air warm, which will just be a bunch of days in the upper 50s with the occasional 60 sprinkled in. If the pattern isnt super conducive for snow, which it likely wont be with a +EPO, I’m fine with this. It’ll feel seasonal still, especially at night + some time for the youngin’ to get outside and play on her new swing from Santa. 

18 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I may be wrong but I recall our best setups typically happen when the west coast ridge sets up over the Rockies too

1 hour ago, Wow said:

This is a very volatile, fast paced upper air flow. Blocks build up as fast as they break away.  No sustained cold or warm and the long range forecasts are tough to nail down.  Lots of conflicting signals out there. 

 

I like it.  I think we'll get another shot at a snow threat and serious cold before Christmas.

That’s the bright spot for sure. It doesn’t seem like we’re headed for a torch. At most, transient cold and warm and the stretches that are warm will have pacific origins. It sure as hell beats the past few Decembers. 

The Euro and Icon for the 14th are interesting to say the least. Not likely a winter weather producer here but interesting to see them both trend away from a torch setting cutter. 

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1864668310488666127?s=46
 

LAWWWD

The EPO isn’t definitively positive like I expected it to be considering the long range guidance. History says to expect the warmth and expect it to sustain but those Pacific patterns are awfully fickle and stagnant. All eyes on that signal the next few days because if it doesn’t go +, it’s hard to buy the sustained warmth theory. I feel like the warmth we have coming up will be more of a late autumn warm, not the typical heat miser (’tis’ the season) warm but of course, that’s very liable to be wrong.