SnowDawg

That's a pretty substantial jump south on that run with the big northern stream wave next week. Definitely plenty of time to hopefully see that trend towards digging just a bit more. Maybe a longshot but the ensembles have continuously had at least a few members with a storm in this timeframe. Perhaps even more interesting could be the subsequent piece of energy that wraps around that TPV lobe once it gets stuck under the block, the GEFS at 18z indroduced a lot more QPF around the 25th/26th, but only time will tell.

These differences are apparent when looking at the 700mbar winds as well, which is where you want to see some vertical motion and flow off the gulf if you want precip. The 0z Tuesday run shows just that with strong moisture transport off the gulf. So I'd say for starters, we'd either need the NS wave to speed up and clear out allowing heights to rise off the coast just before, or slow down like was shown on the 0z Tuesday run. Slower feels like our best bet given the blocking and confluence.

It really wouldn't take big changes to get back in the game on that one for sure. This was the 0z Tuesday run for the same system. The STJ shortwave is still relatively weak but the slightly higher heights off the Atlantic were enough to let it amplify a bit. If you look at H5 you can see the difference between then and now. The NS wave has sped up and is dropping down in front of our wave and crashing heights in front of it, essentially crushing it.

One of the things that has made winter weather look a lot less likely than it initially did is all the ensembles,and even the OP GFS and Canadian, were showing some overunning events coming out of the string of shortwaves running through the STJ next week. Now all the models largely agree on every one of them being weak, strung out, and suppressed. Unfortunately typical in a La Niña. Maybe one of those will trend back towards us in the short range but who knows.

That pre-Christmas storm is close, definitely like the trends with it on the GFS today. Just need it to dig a little more and get going quicker. I'm interested to see how the individual ensemble members look.

Just a bit of a difference at 240 lol

I think we're still seeing some La Niña influences in that there is just too much energy, too fast, all at once. This makes it difficult for any one system to amplify and makes suppression easier as all the waves are weak and flat. I actually wonder if maybe the models are underestimating the block and 50/50 lows slowing down the flow, especially in the medium to long range?

Very reminiscent of February 2021 right now. The chances we do have (18th/20th) get crushed by the northern stream and can't amplify so it just rains on coast. Then when a phase finally happens its too far west. Ensembles have still been positive, so its far from cliff diving time, but it's fair to say the trends in the OP's are not good.

Low in the lakes is a killer there. Really thought it was about to go boom for the mtns and interior on that one with the highs bridged over the top.

I would also point out that by only going out 240 the Euro is ending right where the ensembles have the snowiest period beginning. Similar to how that 18z GFS yesterday was bone dry through the same time period but then brought back to back events on the 22nd and 24th. I don't care what the pattern is we aren't going to bat 1.000 down here so just keep the cold and the energy flying around and we're bound to get at least something out of this.

18z GFS is dreaming of a dark Christmas apparently lol

It really was. Only worry with it is cold and dry as it is getting more and more into that true arctic outbreak type cold. But as we all know that really isn't a worry worth having at this range.

There is so much energy flying around between next weekend and Christmas! Right now it's showing up as a lot of weak sheared out southern slider type storms but if the models are underestimating the block pushing the northern stream energy south and slowing it down, just like they were doing for next week's system, a big phased storm is definitely on the table in that timeframe.

Been thinking the same thing today. Looks like at the least the first legitimate window to keep an eye on.

Oof...amazing that we could go from that look at 12z to raging east coast ridge as far as the eye can see so quickly. Clearly a very volatile pattern, and trusting the models past a few days out is probably foolish move for now.

Certainly not the run you wanted to see after how perfect the 12z runs were, completely obliterates the blocking. It's had a few runs like this over the past week and then reverted back to the bridge block over the top, so hopefully that'll be the case again.

Yeah last few frames of the Euro looks absolutely beautiful at H5. Huge EPO ridge tucked right in against the west coast, west based Greenland block going nuts, and plenty of negative anomalies in the 50/50 region. All the while a piece of energy in the southern jet running through the 4 corners region towards the gulf, and northern stream energy diving out of Canada.

7.93" looks to be the final total. Initial forecast of 3-4. I wanna see a bust like this on a snowstorm one of these days lol

6.61 inches for that 24 hour period, 6.8 storm total....so far. Ain't a creek or river still in its banks at this point, and looks like it could be after sunrise before it finally stops.

Just passed 4 inches of rain so far out of this system. Forecast was 3-4 so that's definitely gonna bust. Looking at the latest HRRR for tonight at least 6 inches storm total looks like a safe bet.

NAO may be just what we need to slow things down and get some better phases.

The NW trend used to be such a friend to our area, now it seems to have completely abandoned us this year. Unless you can score big NW flow, this pattern has been junk since the January event. This will be the 3rd straight weekend with a system missing wide right...

Trend is clear on all guidance so far today, flatter and more suppressed. Rare or not, the suppression train continues. Outside of the initial storm in January, this pattern has been a constant tease for those on the west side of the forum, only for the models to pull the rug inside 5 days and end up with nothing but virga.

Looks pretty close to the 12z run to me at the same timeframe. Maybe some baby steps better here or there, but feels like splitting hairs at this leadtime. Definitely very different from the GFS.

Good for some maybe, but those of us on the far western side of the forum have either been completely missed to the southeast or barely fringed by the last two systems.