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MikeB_01

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Everything posted by MikeB_01

  1. MikeB_01
    something looked a little off on the last couple of frames on the HRRR. No mix at all, but only in the area. And that run looked really good until the rain jumped north pretty abruptly
  2. MikeB_01
    The amount of people I have heard talking about wide spread power outages… not sure who is selling that narrative. .
  3. MikeB_01
    It’s so aggressive with the 16+ in such a huge area. .
  4. MikeB_01
  5. MikeB_01
    this is an interesting question. I'm not sure the heavy precip can have the same affect on a column of air that has already been saturated? Someone way smarter than me would need to address this
  6. MikeB_01
    Primary for the NAM was stronger. That allowed it to amplify a little more.
  7. MikeB_01
    am I mis seeing it? Are those all good?
  8. MikeB_01
    Sorry about the bad quality. But thought this was pretty insightful .
  9. MikeB_01
    Classic .
  10. MikeB_01
    might need to get everyone outside with the biggest fans we can find. Gotta move that warm air out here
  11. MikeB_01
    meant to post this one. Sorry
  12. MikeB_01
    can really see the warmth at the 850 level. Must be crushing ratios. Would love to see a sounding if anyone has access to the Euro soundings
  13. MikeB_01
    one of the reasons i took a break from the board. I know that I'm not the only one
  14. MikeB_01
    keep going Colonel. I appreciate the consistency and camaraderie
  15. MikeB_01
    i would feel so much better with 25 miles to the south
  16. MikeB_01
    i havent compared the RTMA to the models, but the SREFs have a feature that plots their members vs the actual temp. Temps are definitely a little warmer than what they are predicting.
  17. MikeB_01
    36 hrs til the first flakes
  18. MikeB_01
  19. MikeB_01
    icon running
  20. MikeB_01
    this path seems pretty close to the snowfall maps from the NWS
  21. MikeB_01
    NAM trending the right way. Southern energy south of earlier models
  22. MikeB_01
  23. MikeB_01
  24. MikeB_01
  25. MikeB_01
    Here are the latest 48-hour ensemble-based probabilities through 7 AM Monday (from NW to SE / Mercer County to Tucker County): 15":15-55% 12":50-75% (up from 30-70%) 8": 75-90% (up from 60-90%) 6": 85-95% (up from 80-95%) 4": 90-100% (up from 85-99%) This is from the discussion this morning. They do mention lower ratios as the warm air intrudes from south to north. Something to keep in mind, but definitely the reason for that sharp cut off on the 06z euro kuchera
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