MikeB_01

Little dicey Thursday afternoon.

If verified, would be some significant icing to occur 15th into 16th. 

A few flakes and nothing sticks to the ground tonight for the metro. Too warm.  Not sure we make it down freezing until tomorrow night

Final post for the night: Ratios should be low. Very wet snow

 

32 minutes ago, north pgh said:

OZ NAM on board for 2-3 inches.

NAM has the HP in a better spot. Further southeast allowing for more suppression and cold air to keep our precip all snow.

I finally had a chance to look at the 12z Euro. It did come slightly southeast. However, 00z GFS went too far northwest. Windshield wiper in full effect. 

I keep looking here to see if anyone is chattering about Tuesday and you guys are all quiet!   

I think everyone is trying to contain their excitement. All of the winter weather Wienies are trying to avoid early season disappointment. I haven’t looked at the 12z Euro yet. Any shift??


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just for fun

Not really sure how this one works out like this. Nov 3-16 looks below average but the month overall looks to be warm. Must be a hell of a second-half heat wave coming in November 

3 hours ago, blackngoldrules said:

I don't think we're ever going to see Hurricane Michael again. Wow.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

In pretty unique territory. One of 6 storms in history to form in the month of October and reach a pressure of 920 or lower. I believe landfall was made at 919. None made landfall anywhere close to that pressure. Wilma was 950 at landfall in Florida.

Look out Waynesburg



.

Tornado WarningPAC039-022015-/O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0009.181002T1939Z-181002T2015Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTornado WarningNational Weather Service Cleveland OH339 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a* Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Crawford County in northwestern Pennsylvania...* Until 415 PM EDT.* At 338 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Meadville, moving east at 35 mph. Another rotating storm capable of producing a tornado is 5 mileswest of Conneautville, moving east at 35 mph toward Conneautville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris          may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile          homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to          homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and          vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Crawford County, including the following locations... Venango, Conneautville, Woodcock, Saegertown, Blooming Valley and Springboro.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadlytornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move toa basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdybuilding. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or ina vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protectyourself from flying debris.&&LAT...LON 4171 8050 4180 8047 4178 8002 4156 8000TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 276DEG 32KT 4170 8018TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDTORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLEHAIL...1.00IN$$LaPlante

I wish we had decent radar coverage over there. Would love to see the correlation coefficient.


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6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

The cell to the west of the airport showing some decent rotation.

However, in the last few frames, it has really lost its wind speed. and the velocities showing up on radar don't support even a severe thunderstorm warning

The cell to the west of the airport showing some decent rotation.

2 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Here's a topic/thread I started for us: https://wxdisco.com/forums/topic/386-pittsburgh-weather/?tab=comments#comment-9378

I placed it in the Personal Weather section so it's easier to find when needed.

 

Awesome. Thanks for setting this up. Will be great to have a place to go when the site crashes

Crankyweatherguy on twitter posted this. Thought it was interesting for all the “King Euro” lovers out there. Euro performed horribly on Florence the entire time.


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13 minutes ago, senc30 said:

buoy gust just reported 60 miles offshore of 134mph

This buoy got marked as "suspect".  The 112 Onslow Bay buoy is good data though

interesting direction over the last 4 hours

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I'm really amazed at how good she looks on radar. Not only are the moats filling in, but the entire rain shield looks to be expanding as well.

surprising considering what she looked like just a few hours ago. Maybe the result of the improved microwave imagery we saw

Winds currently 66mph at Cape Lookout. Gust to 77mph

extrapolation over the last 4 hours. Less than 10 mph and definitely not gaining latitude

First hurricane force gust recorded. 74mph from the Onslow Bay buoy

Bouy in Onslow Bay. Still waiting for the north winds

Onslow Bay Bouy wave size already up to 25ft

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 3:13Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308 
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2018
Storm Name: Florence (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 10 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 2:53:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31.96N 73.72W
B. Center Fix Location: 250 statute miles (403 km) to the SSE (155°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,743m (8,999ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 85kts (97.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix at 2:46:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 128° at 100kts (From the SE at 115.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix at 2:45:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 72kts (82.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 2:59:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 316° at 73kts (From the NW at 84.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 3:02:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

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