MikeB_01

2 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

12z GFS has a Christmas Day snow storm, yay!   Lol.

You can call this "Fantasyland" all you want, but there is probably some validity to this. The longer range models have been hinting at a pattern change around Christmas time. Maybe Santa brings us this storm at the right time. Let's hope! 

I was still holding out hope for a little jog to the north, but it might be time to accept reality. That is a pretty stong H sitting right over us. Not only squashing our storm, but my pride and hope that this would be a surprise. 

27 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:

I'd love for that to happen but just don't see it this close to the event. This will be another miss for us most likely. Nothing we're not used to around here. Virginia and North Carolina are probably going to get nailed. I think they've seen more big storms than we have in recent years.

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MAybe a few hundred miles is a little overdone. Maybe I should just say that I think there is room for it to come north. EPS percentage chance of 3 in eeks up a few ticks every run. 

In the mean time, really beautiful out today. Nice sized flakes falling all morning

21 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

I'm tracking this one of course but I just find it hard to believe we see suppression too this extent in December. At this point I'd rather NC get hammered if we get another fringe job. Still plenty of time in model land for big changes. This is definitely not over yet. 

I'm with you on this one. Really hard to see this kind of suppression holding on. I think there is a few hundred-mile jog to the north in store for us. 

Thunderstorms in December. I forget how much I love thunderstorms


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very thin band of snow along our cold front to make its way through the region later this afternoon... Cold air comes in after. Temps probably drop into the teens tonight. 

1 hour ago, PghPirates27 said:

looks like 40's/mid 30's next 10 days (other than thanksgiving cold). The long range i'm looking at has 40's/50's and higher lows throughout december...

Not sure I would buy that model. Especially if it is the CFS ---> been performing terribly.  Long range Euro is showing a much cooler pattern. The MJO also favoring colder phases. I don't think we are looking super frigid just yet, but I think there is a decent signal for some near or below average temps into december

Anyone up in Lawrence County today? Snow looks like it coming down hard on the radar. Returns are nice. All rain down here. Just curious as to some observations from up north

Next storm threat. 12z EPS



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Branches on my trees are droopy today. Very heavy and wet snow. A couple of flakes still flying out there this morning. Eastern suburbs looking to get another quick hit here in the next half hour or so. Should look like a snow globe 

Snow/sleet here


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Sleet in Mt. Lebanon


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4 minutes ago, stjbeautifulday said:

Always right over our area.

Weather.com has Crescent, PA getting 3-5 inches.  That’s just changed.  I’m stumped.  

Not sure how Weather.com makes their forecasts, but the HRRR is spitting out 5 in to come for the area. Not buying that, but i do think we have white grass tomorrow morning.

LOL Warm air aloft doming over the region.

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

Freezing rain at the time in the south hills. My commute (though only 15 minutes) was all rain. There was a sheet of ice on my car, but was all rain while driving. Car temp was at 33°. Currently at both airports (KPIT and KAGC) they are reporting 30° and light freezing rain.

 

Watching the 850mb temp maps, it does appear that some of that warm air, whether it be through evaporative cooling or the ULL pushing closer, is being suppressed further south. Hopefully, we start to see some flakes fly in the next few hours and still pick up a couple inches

I know that I am forever the optimist... 

Freezing rain at the time in the south hills. My commute (though only 15 minutes) was all rain. There was a sheet of ice on my car, but was all rain while driving. Car temp was at 33°. Currently at both airports (KPIT and KAGC) they are reporting 30° and light freezing rain.

Watching the 850mb temp maps, it does appear that some of that warm air, whether it be through evaporative cooling or the ULL pushing closer, is being suppressed further south. Hopefully, we start to see some flakes fly in the next few hours and still pick up a couple inches

interesting nowcasting note. If you are looking at the runs of the HRRR, the way it is initializing is not reflecting the snow/mix line and how far south it is. Snow is falling farther south than the HRRR is seeing. Something to keep watching

Euro went pretty much all snow at 12z. The 850 Temps never go above freezing during the precip = all snow

KPIT discussion  from this morning

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All eyes will be on the storm system moving through the
Tennessee Valley into the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic
Wednesday night into Thursday. Two areas of sfc low pressure
will develop in response to the upper level low, the weaker one
over central Kentucky and the stronger one off the Atlantic
coast. They will slowly track northeast well ahead of the
upper level low pressure, which will finally reach the area
late Thursday night before swiftly exiting into the northeast
Friday.

Models are in general agreement on the timing and evolution of
precipitation areas. Precip will reach our southern zones mid-
Thursday morning and spread northward through the day. It will
be reinvigorated late Thursday night into Friday morning with
the passage of the upper level low to our south. As the low
exits, dry air and subsidence will begin, though NW flow will
allow for lake enhanced snow showers throughout the day.

The biggest uncertainty is the temperature profile both at the
sfc and aloft, which will greatly dictate precip type. Latest
model guidance and soundings show a slug of above freezing
850mb temps moving northward ahead of the upper level low at the
onset of the event, putting the onus on sfc temps to remain
at/below freezing to create any wintry mix. Sleet/freezing rain
is anticipated at the onset of this event, but these temps plus
daytime heating will change precip to rain for most areas and
limit wintry accumulations during the daytime. Though looking
much less likely...there remains a very small risk for a
prolonged freezing rain and/or sleet event if sfc temps are
slow to warm above freezing due to reinforcing cold air from the
east. Will keep watch in effect and hold off advisory issuance
for daytime crew who will get final look at model changes ahead
of event start time.

WWA posted to the south and west. Probably not too long before we get one too. 

WSW posted for Central PA

53 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I'm having a hard time buying that solution, for one I think at best we will hover right around the freezing mark, if not a few degrees over at the surface, and 2nd getting significant ice accretion during the day a peak climo can be difficult let alone in early mid November. I'm not dismissing the possibility of a light glaze, but would lean more towards what the GFS is selling in terms of amounts keeping in mind even the smallest ice build up can cause problems. I'm thinking we see more of our typical slop storm p-types, snow quickly flips to sleet with a brief period of freezing rain, then we just have a mix of cold rain / sleet / mangled flake until we flip back to all snow towards the end.

If that high pressure can stick further west as you mentioned, maybe we get a prolonged period of cool dry air funneling in and provide a surprise. Definitely think we have a good shot at some snow on the ground by Friday morning though.

Good call on the with the precip falling during the day. November, like March, is just hard to get snow/ice to fall and stick during the day. I'm not buying that amount of ice either.

FWIW, last nights Euro never has a complete change over to rain for AC. Points south show a change to rain and then quickly back to mix/snow. 

The general idea here is that we are close. Depending on a few varying conditions, we could see lots of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Monitoring the temps at the ground Thursday morning and how the models are initializing will help with nowcasting. Just need to watch and hope for a little surprise.

Ice totals look impressive on some recent NAM runs

The ULL sure is pretty. The position of the HP over NE has a lot to do with how this scenario plays out.  If it shifts a little farther to the west, I believe the surge of warm air would be less than currently depicted. This is a close one. Could easily be a bust. Also could bring several inches of snow