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MikeB_01

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    Pittsburgh, Pa Summer 2024 Thread.

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    mcd1472.png
     
    Mesoscale Discussion 1472  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  1103 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024  Areas affected...Portions of OH...northern WV...and western PA  Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible   Valid 291603Z - 291800Z  Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent  SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and  intensity over the next few hours. Damaging gusts will be the main  hazard with this activity, though a tornado or two also may occur.  Timing of watch issuance is uncertain, but area is being monitored  for watch issuance within the next couple of hours.  DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has been slowly increasing along  the leading edge of an area showers left over from overnight/early  morning convection moving into northern/central OH. Rich  boundary-layer moisture is in place, with surface dewpoints in the  upper 60s to low 70s F noted in morning observations. Widespread  cloudiness is limiting heating, and temperatures are generally in  the upper 70s to near 80F. With time, pockets of stronger  destabilization are expected into afternoon, with downstream  destabilization expected into parts of northern VA/western PA by  early to mid-afternoon. However, cloud cover and poor lapse rates  may limit more widespread stronger instability. Nevertheless,  vertical shear will be sufficient for transient supercells and bands  of bowing segments. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with  convection through the afternoon and into early evening. While  low-level shear will remain somewhat weak, vertically veering  profiles will result in somewhat enlarge and curved low-level  hodographs suitable for a tornado or two in addition to damaging  gust potential.   Additional convection is possible into the evening hours as the  synoptic cold front (currently over northern IL) shifts  east/southeast across the area. As a result, multiple bands/rounds  of strong/severe storms are possible. Timing of watch issuance is a  bit uncertain, but the trends will continue to be monitored for  possible watch issuance within the next couple of hours.  ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/29/2024


    A lot of the severe nature of today is hinging on these clouds getting out of here. Need some instability to get these storms going today


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    Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    23 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

    We need some phase to get the NS involved though to get the cold, 6z GFS was really close to perfect, get that whole progression to happen a little faster and further SW and it bombs right over us vs central PA and look out. There in lies the the thread the needle aspect though, there aren't any other features to buy wiggle room, so it all has to time out perfectly which makes it even lower odds than normal.

    But dang... gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25.thumb.png.dc8a9d75099dfa301cf4b4d9b2f138f7.png

    Missed posting about this yesterday....

     

    is this a Cat 2 hurricane over Delaware?

    • Haha 1

    Pittsburgh/Western PA Banter & Complaint Thread

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

    Keep in mind that data is subject to smoothing, and there can be variances. The linear regression at PIT over that interval is actually positive, with a slope of +0.05" (or a gain of about 2.5" over 50 years). But most locations around us are negative, and substantially so. Cleveland, for instance, shows a negative slope of -0.29" per year (or a loss of about 14.5" over 50 years). So it's sensitive to start and ending dates - 1973-1974 was a historically bad winter for Pittsburgh, but not as bad elsewhere.

     

    Screenshot 2024-01-26 at 11.05.38 AM.png

    Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 minute ago, TimB said:

    Also, glad we missed out on the freezing rain, but is there a reason the advisory is still going? We’ve been above freezing the whole time, haven’t dropped below freezing, and won’t drop below freezing.

    Its interesting how far off the HRRR was on the temperature for this morning... 

     

    I think because there are some stations (PWS) hovering right around freezing, they will leave it as is. My PWS was 32 this morning. I only had sprinkles and it wasn't freezing, but the temp read 32°

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