MikeB_01

Honestly not much change from the 00z...Still ok

UKie still looking alright. Good feeling that the UKie and the Euro (at least for now) seem to be moving to the same solution

FWIW, ECMWF 06z run was even a little further south than the 00z

1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Icon on tropical tidbits is a mess lol, its SE from what I can tell, but shows rain with surface temps in the mid 20s. Also looks like it tries to jump the low to the coast. Probably toss for more proven models for now.

Yes. ICON is a slop fest. If you want to see maps with the differentiated precip, use https://www.weathernerds.org/models/icon.html.

It shows a long duration of heavy HEAVY mixing

MSLP just seems to far S and E to rain for us. The cold air behind this thing is insane . 

Just now, blackngoldrules said:

This run just makes me want to move to the North Hills. Screw the South Hills. I'm done with you. Lol

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amen to that

GFS is definitely an improvement. Another better run for the upper levels. The southern stream got out ahead of the wave in the PV. Thats a welcomed thing. 

GFS About to run. I really think we need to start to see a correction south starting tonight, or at the very least it not going any further nw.

Not sure where to find this model, but got it off a post on the USA weather forum. Add the IBM Deep Thunder model to the SE camp

Found a better site for the icon maps. This one contains the mixed precip. 

Been here since 2009 and I caution any newbies lurking ignore most of the posters with 1000+ posts here, they are wrong 75% of the time, the schtick is to mope and complain they are not getting 30" of snow, how G*d is screwing them or some other nonsense.  We ran off the real Met(s) a while ago.  We are 4 days out and most people whose job it is to know, have no idea what is going to happen.  I point back to 2009 and up to 12 hours about 1/2 of the posters were poo-pooing that 30" monster we got(shall I call some you out?).  Have you snowblower test run and gassed up and get your salt by tomorrow. We are in for a storm of 8+ inches.  How much above 8" who knows.  Ignore all the model hugging mouth diarrhea. 

10 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

PIT updated AFD long term says "it appears this low may track farther south allowing less warmer air to get pulled into the region and keeping more precipitation as snow". 

sounds like they are as confused as we are.

Golly... We are soooooooo close to something here

anywhere from 2-18 in. Nice

1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Definitely SE, but also is it slower? GFS at 120 already has the storm on the NY/PA border at that time.

yes it is significantly slower. I think that is why we get the s and e trend. Cause the energy is slower, it never fully phases with the PV and keeps it moving more w to e 

You wanted south and east... I give you the UKie.

I love the UKie, but this is so different from all other guidance. I hope that it is on to something

looks like an eastern position to me

On a positive side, the Thursday night system appears to be all snow right now. 

Just now, TeaysValleyWV said:

Lows don't run up the spine of the Apps.  This doesn't look right to my untrained eye.  There is no transfer of energy to the coast.

agreed. GFS is trash

Even with the energy deeper, Damn PV is lagging behind even more. = Rain.

Through hr 84, GFS is digging deeper with the energy

Just now, dj3 said:

The icon now brings the low basically right up to western Pa. The solutions that were spitting out big snow totals had more of a w/e trajectory underneath our latitude.

I think as i look at it now, its what we were talking about last night. The icon doesn't have the mix on tropical tidbits. I think the map that i posted early, even though it looks tasty, is probably a lot of ice