MikeB_01

Just love the look of this

Mount Holly's (NJ) current thoughts:

The timing of the northern and southern
systems will be key regarding the end results here in the East, as
some guidance phases them and therefore the surface low tracks over
or just west of our area. The track of the surface low will depend
on where the baroclinic zone is placed and tightens, as arctic air
will be pouring in on the backside of this storm. All of this will
play havoc with not only the precipitation types but also amounts
and therefore impacts.

The spread on the 06z GEFS is unbelievable. Solutions of a monster snowstorm in Michigan or new England depending on the member. What does this mean? ---- These models know nothing right now. Thursday = huge

just to put some persepctive on this situation. It will be wed/thursday before we start to see what this thing will do.  These runs are not bad and will hopefully shift in a good direction for us..

Im pretty sure i would keel over on the spot if this map verified. Not a bad run. Here we go with the same situation we are always in. Need it job 50 miles to the SE and we will be alright.

UKie looks east. Good enough for me.  One day closer tomorrow

Honestly, even though the GFS still looked bad, i think it made some improvements in the upper levels.

And that changed very quickly when the L decided to go right over AGC

hour 96 on the GFS, the ridge in the west is better, the PV in the east is better. Hold on to your butts

However, the more looking into this run on the ICON some weird things are happening. It shows a transition to rain at some point for us. The 2m temps are below 20°. Something fishy here

The Germans are at it again. Check out that thump

Loving the positivity. It is still very early in this thing. Easy to get caught up in the model swings. Keep the faith everyone. 

12 minutes ago, pghwx said:

Lock it in. 

Hey all I have a quick question.  I used to always chat with everyone on the accuweather forums...anyone here from there?  I'm going to miss it this year I think with all these storms in the pipeline.

Welcome! I was never on the Accuweather forum, but i do believe some of the others on here spent some time on there. We have a pretty nice core group of people who post on this forum. Hope you'll join us for some tracking.

guys...

Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said:

That's what I thought too. GFS seems to keep the system more disorganized which helps keep it SE of us. If it amps sooner we will need more confluence to keep it a snow event.

Noticed that too. The energy at the 500 mb level was really strung out from ohio through texas. When we were getting those massive totals, the energy was concentrated and bulldozing right into western PA

Much better from the UKie

Love the track from this run. Might be flying a German flag if the ICON keeps this up

18 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I could be wrong, but gfs looks like a total slopfest.

Not sure where the slop is coming from. I am looking at the soundings and while they say "freezing rain", the entire parcel of air is below freezing? Any ideas?

Here is the L position from the Euro. It is west, but it is because of the change in position of the blocking. Much weaker signal for northern blocking on the 00z run. 

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I knew you were joking, figured I'd just give you a hard time about it. The next few weeks look as good as any for us to finally score a bigger snow so hopefully we don't fail with bad luck in timing or something.

Saw this in the Update NY thread, Euro just a little to far NW and there is a definitely warm tongue signature evident from the snow distribution.

Damn, this is a map. The entire northeast is blanketed under more than 1 foot of snow. 

UKie is west...

I feel like that GFS run looked awfully similar to March 93