MikeB_01

00z icon looks alright. The storm track is in crazy alignment with these models.

2 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

I’m ready. How far out are we? 

150 hrs lol Im pretty sure the energy that could evolve into this storm is sitting off of the coast of Japan

GFS is running... I feel like it is too early to be clinging to run after run. Yet, here I am

On the other hand I've been at this stupid hobby since 2010 and have yet to be rewarded so I'll take this in a heartbeat

I’m actually hoping that this storm slows down a little bit. My sister is getting married on Saturday in Youngstown. Not sure how this will go if there is 12-24 in of snow falling around us.


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25 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I'll take member #1 please...

4 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

Was that you who reported 2.5" of rain/melted snow....rookie mistake lol.  Remember the total includes the melted equivalent.  The actual physical snow measurement goes down below in the new snow box.  I know it's confusing at first.  Thanks for signing up.

Guilty! I fixed it though. Once I looked at the map and saw my number was way off, I went back in an edited it. 

The official is no different from my reading last night (2.5"). Since  I signed up for CoCoRaHS, I was able to get my melted equivalent which was .18"

And just to continue the trend... 2.5" measure in my backyard. 

28 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I'd probably be done tracking this year and maybe next year. 

 

I have no words...

I know we still have a long way to go with this storm, but in terms of the set up at the 500 mb level, the GFS nailed this. Current analysis shows an image almost identical to what the GFS was showing 3-4 days ago. 

45 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Energy dying as it enters Western Pa and then the coastal is too far to the east to affect us. We literally need perfect set ups to score big. Whereas the coast can sneeze and as long as it's cold they can get a big storm. 

1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Saw the most recent NAM and IKON and both have our corner in lighter amounts with heavy to east in somerset and west into OH....figures-whT is it about our corner? The way the apps transfer energy and we end up in a hole?

Yea its all about the Apps. Once the energy approaches, typically, it tries to find an easier solution than traveling over the mountains. So instead, it forms a new surface low where it can thrive, like over the Atlantic. Sadly, we live in a very unfortunate area for weather enthusiasts. 

"ho hum" for the 12z NAM. Its been crazy consistent with 500 mb and snowfall. 2-3 in of snow looks likely and ya know what? I'll take it. 

Even if things don't work out favorably this weekend, there seems to be something to track for next weekend, as well.  Yay! 

SREF mean is 1 in. 00z GFS looks about the same and so is the NAM. This one is dead. Give it a 1-3. 1 most likely and 3 if you are extremely lucky.

Finally got to look at last nights 00z euro. Looks alot like the 12z NAM from today.... More than 48 hours to go, but this is looking less and less likely to be a decent event. 

Using Bernie's info from yesterday, NAM is showing a solution where that confluence line is staying off too far to the north. So instead of it coming further south and allowing the energy to merge over ohio, the energy is staying with the southern stream. Because confluence zone is north, the flow stays pretty west--> east and ships our Low OTS. IF we can get that confluence zone to drop in, our totals wont be super impressive, but we might get that 3-4 storm that we are desperately seeking at this point of the year. If it stays as the NAM has shown, i think our max is about 2 in.

Haven't taken the time to analyze it yet, but first glance at the NAM is no bueno

Gigantic precip field on the Ukie

39 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

So did the gfs but that confluence just shears that thing apart. Im hoping it's over modeled and the precip is slightly under modeled. 

We will see what the Euro does, but my guess is that we will end up with a blend between the two

Bernie’s periscope today was helpful in understanding why the GFS and the Euro are showing different solutions. The 552 confluence zone is key and it’s in totally different spots in the two models.


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47 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Kinda hard to believe the snow totals and the precip shield on this run. 500 mb looked rough

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

At this point like I said I'd take a 2-4 event. We know we dont do big storms well but it would be nice to get a nice warning event here. I'm praying the NAM is right and the GFS is off its rocker. 

Good news for us is that the GFS always seems to be off its rocker just a little bit.

20 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I also wonder how much of that is from today and tonight too..

Ahhh I forgot to include that in my post. The Euro gave us an inch or less today. So about 3 in of that is for the weekend

latest euro snow map. Honestly, the presentation of the storm looked better even though the snow map doesn't necessarily show that.