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MikeB_01

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Everything posted by MikeB_01

  1. MikeB_01
    Agree. I don’t think there is anyway that this runs the coast. It definitely an inland storm. .
  2. MikeB_01
    I'm also totally basing this off of wishcasting and the fact that every meteorologist on the planet still has the main axis of precip east of the city. The CMC run has me hyped right now though.
  3. MikeB_01
    Still time for a little eastward shift too.
  4. MikeB_01
    nearly as good as it gets
  5. MikeB_01
    Canadian looks nearly identical to 12z through hour 60.
  6. MikeB_01
    I'm not buying that mixed precip yet. I get that the mid level low will be transfering and depending on how long that takes some warm air will be moving in at the 850 level. That being said, the surface will be at 22°F at the time the NAM shows 33° at the 850. Thats a crazy and ridiculous gradient. I'm not saying that is cannot happen, it certainly has, but that is pretty rare to see that kind of disparity. At least im hoping it is...
  7. MikeB_01
    That would be a beat down of all beat downs. Good rates to the east and to the west, but we are in the slot. Ugh.. That being said, NAM at 84 hours. I'm not worried yet. We still see that dry slot 24-36 hours, then im worried
  8. MikeB_01
    That picture shows the ULL in southwestern virginia. I should have also include this one which shows its next move after. Moving into southern (kinda) eastern PA. This is pretty good track for us. Is it 12+? Probably not, but that would be a 6-8" track
  9. MikeB_01
    Keep in mind also that the storm is officially onshore over Washington. Fresh real-time data injected into the models for 00z runs tonight
  10. MikeB_01
    I think the surface map has a lot going on. BR always say to track the 500 L. If you stick to that rule, this looks like a solid Euro run for us. The ULL traveling where it is puts us in a good spot. Maybe the western edge, but i still think we are ok for right now
  11. MikeB_01
    Euro pretty much holds suit. That dry slot is going to drive us crazy as the storm starts to approach
  12. MikeB_01
    The euro is running...
  13. MikeB_01
    All hail King Ukie
  14. MikeB_01
    Glorious
  15. MikeB_01
    Still 3+ days out. I'm sure they will slowly ramp it up based on the trends.
  16. MikeB_01
    FWIW --> GEFS has no clue. Max is 16. Min is 0. Mean is 2.
  17. MikeB_01
    I dont buy that rain/snow map. Low track still look really good for us. If it take that track through Harrisburg we should be real good
  18. MikeB_01
    I should mention that the black line is the deterministic run of the Euro. The mean is about 4"
  19. MikeB_01
    12z EPS
  20. MikeB_01
    If we have a run in which that beautiful magenta color makes it over AGC, I am going to need someone to inject that straight into my veins. Glorious
  21. MikeB_01
    Everyone buckle up... Right now we are in the drivers seat. We know that models waffle and this one definitely will. Prepare for some shifts in either way and hope that it comes back.
  22. MikeB_01
    .
  23. MikeB_01
    As I was saying.. GEFS looking pretty good right now. The variability is crazy, but expected for this far out. I think any of us would take a 6+" storm right now.
  24. MikeB_01
    I noticed this as well. That warm air is getting closer and closer to being sucked up right over western PA. A return of that dreaded warm tongue of death. The good news is that the GEFS is in a good spot. Moving west with each run, but for now it is good. I think...
  25. MikeB_01
    The storm is there… time to watch. Hopefully the GfS has a better idea .
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