the_other_guy

It is a shame. Cold air really locked in over the region. Mixing really isnt the biggest issue. The precip just isnt there.

No way we get to NWS forecast. Mine was 12-16.

This is a nice little storm before xmas. Nothing more beyond that

2 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Central Park will hit 10-12 by tomorrow morning

That is bold. They would need more in round 2 then round 1. Hopefully

Just now, wizard021 said:

I hate sleet 

That’s ok because the state of NJ is a giant dry slot headed our way

4.5 inches at moment.

29 minutes ago, dWave said:

 

Im all snow too..heavy snow, 24.

Where in Westchester??

Hastings.

Was def sleet during lighter precip. Back toward a light snow now. Vis up over last hour

Westchester

24F

All sleet at moment

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

I'm outside.  My fingers are frozen.   And it's not light snow.  Just peek at a radar.  

Looks like 1/2 mile and moderate snow

Need 1/4 for heavy snow

KISP 170021Z 05017G27KT 1/2SM R06/6000VP6000FT SN FZFG FEW005 BKN009 OVC015 M02/M02 A3012 RMK AO2 PK WND 04027/0018 P0001 T10171022

14 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Islip still reporting light snow lol

I would go with that then.

Airports are surprisingly good. All based on visibility as opposed to an observation from a window

Just to throw this out there... Does anybody remember the Valentine’s Day storm? All sleet. Awesome storm. Stayed around for a long time.

All of a sudden this forum that likes winter weather is so anti-sleet. You get a few hours of snow and several hours of sleet and you are in winter storm nirvana because that snowpack isnt going anywhere for a long time

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm at 8F dew so that's a good sign. Will see if the cold, dry high helps force the low more offshore as it moves north. 

21F. When was the last time it was this cold/dry with precip moving in? 

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

That’s deflating especially coming off last winter but at least this event will produce way more snow than all of last winter did 

Dont be deflated. It is Dec 16. History tells us this Dec storm is a good harbinger of other storms. Also have a good airmass for the rest of Dec.

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Honestly can’t believe this is actually going to end up cutting west....thought this was a cut and dry case of a well offshore low track given the setup and confluence. I was wrong. Such is the way of the world....

You’re being too hard on yourself. You were talking about a 50 mile shift over several days of tracking. Unfortunately for Long Island 50 miles makes all the difference especially with warm water

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

So this wouldn't have happened if people didnt use social media and we made the thread 3 days ago instead? 

Correct.

Several posters over the last couple of days have been talking about a Northward  Trend. It verified. 

It just seems crushing because we had 50 plus pages of tracking before that telling us this was going to be an epic blizzard

Just now, MJO812 said:

A negative epo would have been nice. 

Once again the models sucked us all in

What has happened to the models ?

It really isn’t the models.

It’s a social media world with people attached to their phones 24/7

I never saw so many storm specific threads on the website before. guys have been tracking this thing and every move it made for over a week.

Of Course this was going to happen

5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The Philly area has not had an inch of snow in some 650 days. The models are showing areas some 15 miles south of Philly getting almost nothing with this storm and some 15 miles NW of Philly getting near a foot.

That is a staggering statistic. Has it happened before? Was 72-73 that long of a stretch?

15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Relatively common.  A good way to think of it is the south shore folks are on the beach and the north shore folks are 10 or 15 miles inland.  The LI Sound isn't insignificant, but it's a much smaller body of water and after October also colder.  In 2015, a significant portion of the Sound froze over.  if anything, it adds more snow than it detracts.

I go up on the water out there and within the Long Island spectrum that’s true. But when you look at the bigger picture, the eastern North Shore only works for snow if  you have a good coastal setup as opposed to 15 miles North and West of the city line which can work in various marginal scenarios. 

The storm is a perfect example. If it isnt marginal, North Shore does great. But if it is marginal, you would rather be in White Plains than Huntington

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

This is always a big debate each winter, whether to clear the board every 6 hours or at the end of the event or 24 hours, whichever comes first. 

End. Always end  unless you are in a 1996 scenario and you’re going for broke to see how much is on ground at once

Sleet/snow/rain mix.

Precip is racing the sunset. Shame. If it was a few hours later this may work out for some of us on the fringe

A steady sleet/rain mix in southern Westchester Much of the morning.

Temperature very stubborn and 37F

Sleet falling. 38F

Sleet falling 38F

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I dream about living in the Adirondacks  all the time

Then don’t move to Albany because you’ll be nowhere near the Adirondacks :)

55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm.

You’re going to give people a stroke haha

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ah, they had 40 and rain until recently. Weather for the masses

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I really think names are necessary because sometimes you have multiple big storms in a month (like Feb 2010) and it gets highly confusing, but I would opt for a more scientific naming scheme (for tropical cyclones too).  I can call it Jonas Jan 2016 or just Jonas 1/2016.  The decision to name itself is pretty scientific, as they go with areal coverage of winter storm warnings or population covered under winter storm warnings, whichever is reached first.  In Europe, all big storms are named (not sure of their criteria.)  I would also name big storms that dont meet snow criteria if they meet wind criteria (gale or storm warnings of a certain areal or population coverage).

 

I don’t mind names if they were coming from a national weather service.

I don’t like names that were made for branding, sensationalism, and ratings.

I actually think it’s beneath us on this site to use weather channel names for winter storms

Just my opinion