the_other_guy

Another .5 overnight (which surprised me).

Had this all fallen at night, the 1-3 would have worked.

1.1 inches total

Snow falling again.

.6 thus far. Pretty

Rates have definitely picked up over the last 20 minutes, visibility down.

I’m not sure how that’s happening because the radar is sparse, but that tells me this thing is blossoming a bit

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

30 degrees at the border, colder than expected but rates are garbage. 

Rates are about to become non existent.

nice little dusting

All snow now in Hastings

Sleet in Hastings on Hudson

15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

WWA advisory for everyone except NYC/LI

Looks like NYC is included. Just LI isnt

For those that equated this weather to a New York City meal

Appetizer: Peanut butter crackers out of the vending machine

Main Course: You get to watch a girl named Virginia eat a day old Mc Donalds burger

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People wanted blocking and look what's happening.  I will take my chances with front end stuff.

BLOCKING! hahaha

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So much for that very favorable January pattern. How can we be shut out of every storm ? Its amazing.

5 years doesnt make a long term pattern, but I fear climate change has finally caught up to us. The gaps between snowfall, the gaps between cold air, the near constant plus 2...it is a killer for an area that had average highs in the upper 30s before this. Every event become a thread the needle scenario

This week not producing is a big deal. Any winter with a goose egg in January isn’t a good winter buy any definition.

Fat lady is starting to warm up boys.

One warm outbreak in February and you can stick a fork in this winter...again.

19F at 730. Not quite as cold as yesterday

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Model soundings show dry about 700mb. Upper level divergence and lift are weak. Vorticity is weakening. There's just not a lot of modeled support for precipitation generating mechanisms east of CPA. Maybe things moisten up in the short term. Or maybe a few areas get lucky with isolated banding. Otherwise I think we are looking at a minor event.

I think the question is minor vs non existent if trends hold correct

The models are all saying the same thing over and over. 

Be it flurries, light snow, a dusting, or a couple or inches...this isnt our storm due to dry air shredding the storm apart.

End of story...unless something changes dramatically.

On Tuesday, let’s not have rehash of what went wrong with the models as we do time and again. 

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I've always wondered, why is there a lag with sunrises not getting earlier until the middle of January?  Why is there an assymetry between sunrises and sunsets?

Goodie! We can start talking about sun angle soon. haha

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Better than this useless not quite cold and not warm enough to do outside stuff that we've been having for the last month. I have a whole bunch of car work to do so why don't you see if you can order up some of those 60's for me.

There is a nice piece of property in Raleigh for you. Save a lot on taxes too 

33 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I can see it getting later and later and one reason is the heat island. The city has put up many large skyscrapers in the past 10 years and it has expanded east into Brooklyn and Queens. This morning for example, Central Park is 28 and most suburbs were in the teens. I was down to 17. 

Yes that is a big part of it. But a warmer, more humid climate is the other (larger) piece.

NYC just doesnt get cold at night anymore, sadly.

Has anybody else noticed how warm it’s been relative to forecast from five days ago?

This week was never supposed to be in the low to mid 40s, but that is where we have been thus far...even with cold front passage.

This is turning out to be a very mild January.

17F at 7am. Coldest it has been in a while

Nice little dusting...

Nice to see snow falling this morning 34F. 

No lack of snow in Catskills...

Actively snowing too

2 hours ago, tmagan said:

If winter ended today, Central Park would tie for the tenth warmest winter ever.

Is that notable in 2020? Perhaps for a cool year? Almost every month we have is at or above normal these days.

On 1/15/2021 at 10:42 AM, 495weatherguy said:

Anthony, a serious question for you.   
 

would you rather have current conditions—blocking but suppression?

or

Storms at 38 degrees?

This winter has demonstrated or reminded us just how many things have to go right (or wrong) for it to snow near the coast.  The last 20 years have been unbelievable, rather anomalous, there is a reason our long term averages are around 30 inches of snow.

 

We can no longer discount the extreme warmth. This new normal isnt historically normal for this area at all.

Comparing these last few years to historical averages with a much cooler planet is an apples to oranges comparison.

The Nino season snapped something. Nothing has been the same since then

2 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

Winter is done. Those who called it in December were correct. Can’t break the back of the Pacific flow. 

Posts like this should get deleted on January 15.