the_other_guy

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What would it take to be super warm across the whole continent?  Alaska, Canada and the CONUS too?!  Has it ever happened?

 

It is happening

21F. 

24 hours of winter for the solstice haha

22 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

winter officially hasn't even began lol but seriously it's been so warm the global warming is really taking over now. i wonder how warm it's going to get in say 30 years if we don't change our course!

What does “changing course” entail?

cutter on xmas?

Cant even make this up…

1 hour ago, WeatherFox said:

Current reality in next 7 days for NYC.  Progressive pattern, lack of enough cold air, unlikely phasing, and no White Christmas. 
 

Today

Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph. 

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind 8 to 17 mph. 

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 39. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. 

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. 

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 46. West wind 6 to 9 mph becoming east in the afternoon. 

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 35.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Friday

Partly sunny, with a high near 47.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Christmas Day

Partly sunny, with a high near 48.

Running +5. Quite warm pattern. barring one off stuff, NYC doesnt get snow with +5

Edit: And correcting warmer we get closer. Nyc now closing in on 50 for xmas. A few days ago, it was near freezing

56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

On its face no December snowfall in a Nina is bad but we've seen a lot of things that we've never had before lately. 

Maybe this could be the first time we see 30"+ after 0" in December in a Nina.

Depends what you are looking for to save winter.

Goose egg for Dec plus Sept thru Dec warmth doesnt lead to a good winter especially a Nina setup.

Does one 30 inch historic storm save winter? Like 2015

Or was 2015 a scary island of warmth, with almost no snow outside that storm? That 30 inches melted in one week…which was crazy.

10 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

it's always 10 days from now!

Only in a bad pattern when you are desperately looking for a new pattern.

We had a very warm fall.

Nov eeked out a negative. That was with the new baseline and it was barely negative.

The latest guidance for the rest of December doesn’t look great. The fat lady hasn’t started singing yet but she’s warming up for December.

We have also gone into a very dry pattern…Which we haven’t had much of lately.

This isn’t how good winters start.

Looks like another AN week ahead. Some days very much so.

Just a brutal month.

Forsythia has buds on it… 

54F Beautiful. If you could lower the taxes it would be like living in the Carolinas. Still in shorts and a T.

I find it interesting that we’re not even in the warmest departures across the nation. I guess it could have been worse thus far.

Also of note, as I was flying over fly over country the past two days, There isn’t much snow anywhere… But if you’re going skiing in the Salt Lake City area Utah has been getting a good amount. That area and the eastern California are the only areas of snow cover observed

12 hours ago, Nibor said:

I'll be fine. I just don't wanna give it to anyone else. I know too many people who've lost family members.

Are you the guy from Astoria quoted on page 4 of the Daily News?

Feel better all kidding aside

You wonder how much longer skiing will be viable in the Catskills in this rapidly warming climate? Sad

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

I posted in banter but there’s still a fair amount of trees here in my neighborhood with leaves. Some have only recently started changing color. 

youre living over a geothermal

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Thursday and Friday will be our annual warm up within about 5 days of the solstice.

 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/15/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21| WED 22|THU CLIMO
 N/X  46  62| 46  64| 40  44| 36  46| 25  39| 27  49| 32  45| 34 28 43

 

This is different. never cooled down. this year, the solstice will actually be the cool point in the month thus far.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

There is alot to be excited about. 

Yes like the 15° swing from Westchester to Queens this morning. You could almost plant pansies for xmas

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Fantasy land regardless of what it's showing....that's 10+ days out

Yeh. I dont get what is going on in this forum to be honest with you.

Long range guidance is iffy at best. Even if we want to take it for Gospel, the pattern depicted is marginal for larger storms.

I laugh when I read about clippers. Clippers are an Upper Midwest thing. They almost never produce for the NYC metro.

Only thing that is certain is that it is warm the next few days. Then it will cool down and still be AN. 

Wash, rinse, repeat temp wise. December will end well above normal temperature wise… even with the new normal baeeline.

28F Below Freezing! Woohoo! 

Beautiful weather out. No one is discussing it

50F Brilliant sunshine

Forget about eight days from now…beautifully warm out

55F

Busted every forecast for my area. Impressive to say the least

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a lot of people I've talked to aren't fazed by the mild December.

Isn't this how December always is now? Is what I'm getting

Then they go on to say that winter really begins in January, really January 20th (since we've gotten a lot of big snowstorms around that time.)

 

If you are waiting for winter on 1/20, you have a shit winter.

Plus, the last several years have featured 3 week shutout patterns…many of which occurred in January.

Even that frigid new years week a few years ago led to 2-3 weeks of AN 

I think we need a really good pattern or we get nothing. It isnt as simple as winter start in later… Novembers have really been pretty good. unfortunately it’s a waste of November.

December has warmed dramatically

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the 90s outside of two great years were garbage 

Quoting me again huh haha

The 80s were cold. 90s colder than this

You knew it was winter even with little snow

What we have now is a dying season

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Hahahahaha what a burn. Was going to come back to bite at some point 

It’s stupid childish behavior.

The first instance I never said 2015 didn’t count… I said that because it was so high, it skewed the decade average and a median would show a better picture of decade wide trends.

Today I pointed out that we had a record week in December and this week isn’t going to be anywhere close to it despite posters yearning for a headline.

Both very valid points.

But you two guys pretend that you are in junior high school reading a Snaps books and throwing around emojis.

I don’t get burned or feel burned when I present factual information.

Here are the High Temps for NYC from this week in 2015

61 66 66 66 68 52 59

Lets cut the sensationalist garbage already.

It’s warm enough without the exaggerations needed. 

sultry in Charleston this morning already 63F. Yesterday was downright cool and today its going to be hot on the east coast

57 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Just for my information:

Does anyone know for what reason Fireworks are being shot off near the Statue of Liberty at 6:30pm for 2 minutes and again right now at 6:55pm.

I can see,hear and feel them here in CI, 9.5mi. away?     Thanks.

Celebrate another mask mandate? Yea! Boom!