the_other_guy

All the LI Airports last hour.

Gusty from Brookhaven out.

Even Islip is fairly calm

1 hour ago, Hc7 said:

I dunno why you say that as if the eye is making landfall right now, its still roughly 100+ miles out to sea and still has somewhat of a NNW heading, theres still at least 4-5 more hours for it to continue drifting and the eye can still totally clip the eastern part of the Island. Either way its pretty much irrelevant whether the eye barely misses the island by a mile completely or whether it landfalls 10 miles into the east end, the outcome and impact for a majority of the island will be nearly the exact same. Henri is still going to cause widespread, significant problems for the area. How far west it drifted had much more of an impact on the CT/Mass/RI area than it did LI.

You are wishcasting.

Unless the storm puts on a turn signal and makes a sharp left turn, The eye is not landing on Long Island.

Of course there are widespread effects outside of the eye.

But the thinking of a landfall between Smith Point Park and Southampton was off by 100 miles…I am glad to say

Eastern track guys/gals/models were correct.

That eye never touches LI

12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Correct me if wrong but i dont remember any model throwing this much rain out already. already FFW for parts of NYC

This rain should end before 11pm.

kind of got into a sticky territory because there’s going to be an hours long gap

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People are in panic mode right now

 

Supermarkets are packed and gas stations are insane and some are without gas.

Not in Westchester. I was just out for a leisurely dinner. Everything seemed fairly normal

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Would you consider Miller Place and Mt Sinai central or eastern?

 

theres a phycological barrier there that skews peoples thinking.

30 years ago, those areas were rural. The rural line was 112.

That isnt the case anymore. The rural line is really the William Floyd now…and it will stay there thanks to Pataki and his protected lands programs.

That said twin forks is its own area.

Eastern Suffolk begins east of Nicols Road imo

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Funny to see all the city guys hoping for a storm. All the LI people are praying it doesn’t happen 

On the beach in Wading River. Sandy had minimal damage for us. Even with minimal damage:

There was no power for at least a week

There was several inches of water in the basement with associated water damage

There was a sharp 6 foot drop at the bulkhead and the beach was destroyed.

Even Irene, Which was a nothing burger for the five boroughs… As the storm came through big branch fell off an old tree in North Flushing, right into a bedroom and killed a guy as he slept.

Long story short, you dont wish for a hurricane to hit your forum area

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

uhm with that track we're all getting it, remember a hurricane isn't a point.

 

That’s not true. That track is a Bob track with a much weaker storm. you need significant westward movement for all of us to “get it.”

Just feels like a late September early October rainy evening.

Very nice for a brief interlude

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But the humid onshore flow is because climate change has relocated the Bermuda ridge further to the north right?  The SW part of Nassau County is hotter than JFK so I agree about the bad placement of the JFK sensor, it should be on the north side of the airport, near Rosedale or North Woodmere.  Farmingdale and Islip haven't seen any 100 degree days either and they are further inland than JFK is though.

 

Why should it be relocated?

It accurately reflects JFK weather which is vastly different than the urban city or urban Nassau.

Ive seen everything from accumulating snow to dense fog on the lower half of JFK that the upper half may not be experiencing.

But guess what is on the lower half? The majority of the landing runways.

Pilots care about the weather where the plane is touching down.

Airport ASOS’ exist to give pilots and ATC the most accurate weather information for safe operations.

Another beautiful morning without AC 66F

This forum seems intent on creating a drenching storm and heat wave…to no avail

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was just a temporary bridge put in place after the original bridge got washed away. 
 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/suspension-bridge-collapses-flooded-russian-051203234.html

 

The bridge, mainly made out of wood, was located in Uryum village, over 4,500 kilometres away from Moscow.As the truck reached the middle of the bridge, it started failing under the load, eventually falling into the swollen river along with the vehicle.The driver was later reported to have survived, but the truck could not be recovered from the water.The suspension bridge was constructed in place of a road bridge that was destroyed during one of the previous floods in the area. Currently, the residents of Uryum village do not have a way to cross the river after the accident.Bridge in Uryum is not the only one in the region that got damaged by extreme rainfall. Flooding has also damaged a bridge on Russia's Trans-Siberian railway, suspending traffic in the area.A also bridge gave way in Zabaikalsk region, some 300 km (190 miles) north of the border with China and Mongolia, The emergencies ministry said that no casualties were reported.TASS news agency said around 650 houses were reported flooded and five road bridges washed away in the flooding in the Zabaikalsk region on Thursday after heavy rain.

Wow. On so many levels

On 7/24/2021 at 8:08 PM, bluewave said:

Hard to keep track of all the record flash flooding around the world. Luckily, the driver survived. 

 

that bridge was due to collapse anyway…

Wow strong gusts ahead of this storm with mainly clear skies

There is a baseline normal.

We are using the baseline.

We didnt reference 1970-2000 baseline normals last year, no need to reference old baselines this year

80F

Today reminds me of what summer days out on Eastern Long Island used to be like: temperate days, cool nights, rarely needed the AC at night.

Geez, the climate out here has changed so drastically in such a short time…it is scary. It is all in the dewpoint and most of it is in the last 20 years.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."

It is funny: airports, skyscrapers, convention centers, roads, hotels, trains, skyscrapers…just about every category you can think of that involves a physical structure is bigger, better, and nicer elsewhere.

Why would he think NYers deserve the best weather station.

Just living in NY involves accepting sub par on just about everything…including, apparently, the CPK weather station

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have had so much record July heat since 2010, that the new 30 year climate normals have risen from 77.4 to 78.2 at Newark. So Newark only needs a +1.8 July departure for a top 10 warmest 80° or higher July. That’s why using departures can really underestimate heat in a warming climate.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-monthly&timeframe=30&station=USW00014734

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	1993	82.5	0
3	2010	82.3	0
4	1994	81.9	0
5	2013	80.9	0
6	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
7	2019	80.6	0
8	1955	80.5	0
9	1988	80.4	0
10	2002	80.0	0

This is a good point…and gives good perspective. We are in a warmer, more humid climate.

We are really tracking weather here not climate. We talk climate for historical perspective, hence the top 10 charts…but when talking about weather, we need to use a universal baseline, if not we will have chaos on the forum.

As another poster said, July has been cooler than normal for most of the region…with normal being the new 30 year averages. 
 

Per the NWS. And what you find is that when you look at an urban place you can’t meet that standard

https://www.weather.gov/coop/sitingpolicy2

Temperature sensor siting: The sensor should be mounted 5 feet +/- 1 foot above the ground. The ground over which the shelter [radiation] is located should be typical of the surrounding area. A level, open clearing is desirable so the thermometers are freely ventilated by air flow. Do not install the sensor on a steep slope or in a sheltered hollow unless it is typical of the area or unless data from that type of site are desired. When possible, the shelter should be no closer than four times the height of any obstruction (tree, fence, building, etc.). The sensor should be at least 100 feet from any paved or concrete surface.”

6 hours ago, Rjay said:

After all the evidence posted by Bluewave over the last couple of months we're still going with, "something must be wrong with Newark's temp readings!!".  

 

Also Newark is mostly in line with interior Queens as posted by Bluewave several times.  

Both are cement jungles isolated from the nearby water…thus skewing temp

readings warmer than surrounding areas.

I wish there were as many complaints about the EWR readings as there were about CPK.

When you see EWR hotter than anywhere else including PHL, something is off

18 hours ago, psv88 said:

I would hope that as time goes on the departures do not continue to increase at the same pace as they did in the last decade. I think we see a much larger jump once the 1990s drops off, as the real warming seems to have started around 2000. After that jump, departures in any given month should be less.

The real warming seems to have occurred with nighttime lows not dropping to our historical numbers.

The experts on this forum correctly surmise that the air is more humid and the lapse rate is slower in air that is more moist.

The bulk of your heavy warming has a occurred there.

We are firmly in a subtropical climate at this point where our daytime highs and nighttime lows are only going to be separated by 10 or so degrees on our extreme days.

Going forward, that factor is already baked in… Which means you’re just going to be dealing with normal warming trends… which if predictions are correct, won’t be nearly as alarming

I just want to state that we have to use the new normal numbers.

There has to be an official benchmark and that’s the new normal. If not we sow chaos .

Using actual temperature data comparisons is great to show warming over 120 years…but let’s stop the 1980s 30 year average numbers at this point.

16 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i'm not really sure what most of the public does with advisories except buy pallets of bread and milk before it snows 4 inches

I bet you a lot of that stops now that we’ve been thru the real thing. A snowstorm with a day in the house seems laughable now

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The last 4 days of June are averaging 86degs.(75/98), or +11.0.

Month to date is  72.7[+1.2].       June should end at  74.5[+2.5].

GFS is all 90's+, except for July Fourth WE rainout, these next 16 days.

Missed rain at 3pm yesterday.    SI must have had a lot and into northern Brooklyn too, as rain sheild missed me.

71*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast, disgusting.

All 90s?