the_other_guy

Actually warm in the sun! 62F

Brutal wind, heavy rain and freezing temperatures in southern Westchester this midday Saturday.

And the NWS and forecasters wonder why an entire city ignored warnings for IDA.

Yosemite on arrival into SFO.

Snow line from storm just to the west.

Sierras covered very nicely from the event at higher altitudes

Inbound to EWR. On time. Rain stopped. SW winds at 10 knots at the moment.

They even turned the airport around to land on the 22s.

Not anything like the aviation forecast from this morning…happily

21 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

 

Going up to Monticello to stay the night at the casino.  Maybe some good colors there.   Also see you're from Oceanside.  Their fire dept is our "sister station" as they say

Lots of color in westchester. I am imagining they are just at or past peak? Share pics!

42F Coldest night so far

Of course weeklies long range aren’t reliable… The thing that I’m sure a lot of posters find frustrating is that many of us take the warm weeklies and hang onto them like they’re gospel, but when we see long range cold, we dismiss it as unreliable.

Food for thought on an early Sunday…

20 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Actually a little higher than that in the immediate metro area, 63 Central Park and 64 Newark, 62 Islip. But to your point it is already 60 in Central Park, although a lot of the more rural areas are quite a bit chillier.

 yeah some variation depending on location in region. I don’t see any air besides normal or above normal. Maybe slightly below monday and tues.

Normal high today is 60 Give or take a degree or two depending on what part of the region you’re in

Just for perspective…

Who would ever make a call for November in New York City to be snowy?

As someone above pointed out it’s happened a few times AND almost always leads to a nearly snowless winter to follow.

As another poster mentioned, a warm Sept Oct and Nov is almost always a sign of a warm winter.

In the next 3-4 weeks you will know if winter is going to arrive or if we have to hope for small-ball, pattern, one-off snow events like Feb 2014 or Feb 95

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Not necessarily, there have been warmer than normal October and November in the past that lead to cold/snowy winters. The problem is when all 3 months (September, October, November) are warmer than normal, that it almost always leads to a bad outcome 

Correct.

The guys glossing it over by saying every winter is above normal are missing the point. using the new baseline, it still would be a warmer than normal winter.

Lets see what November brings.

This week is shot again.

Back above normal already, 80 tomorrow, 70s through Friday. It doesn’t signal a cool down or a pattern change, but rather a transient cool shot.

Let’s see how we do early next week. If late next week starts to look like 70 again, you know what we are dealing with…and it isnt good

31 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Not for you or me but if it is clear and no wind, those colder suburbs north and west will see it. Some did last night.

Next sunday-tuesday 

Only 57F at noon. 49F at 8am

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

was crazy-big pieces of LI sound frozen-haven't seen it since and hadn't really seen it before (going back to 1990 when I came here)

We lived on the Long Island sound since 1986… That is the only time we ever saw that

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Going to under perform today temp wise with these clouds.

 

Also under performed yesterday, vs forecasts on this forum.

Supposed to be widespread 80s right?

 

Not that it really matters… it’s warm

 

I take it back! Cleared and gorgeous! 

46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes that's how pathetic things have been. 

I think it'll be easier if we just recognize it's gonna be like this every "fall". 

Our climate is warm & wet. Time to deal with it 

This cool down is down to 3 days. That is the funny thing after all that.

Tues thru Friday look down right warm

Going to under perform today temp wise with these clouds.

Also under performed yesterday, vs forecasts on this forum.

Supposed to be widespread 80s right?

Not that it really matters… it’s warm

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

October  15 and I'm still wearing shorts

LoL

I haven’t put them away at all! New climate aint all bad

38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully, it’s rushing it and we flip in December. Climo for snow along the coast is a bit better 

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking too. We’ve seen this episode before. Warm oct-cold 6 weeks to start nov-warm up just in time for mid december.

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we’ll see if it holds this colder look for early to mid-November in later runs.

 

It’s interesting if this happens it would be exactly as AccuWeather or the weather channel ( i can’t remember) Predicted in the seasonal forecast…Which I usually don’t give too much credence

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

another warm  uncomfortable day shaping up for october 8.

There is nothing uncomfortable about this day.

Spectacular early September day

77F

61F Dense Fog starting to break. Another hour at most

59F at 930am

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont believe in this minimum fake heat.  I dont mind it being used in the "off seasons" but minimums should definitely NOT be used for describing hot summers.  The definition of a hot day is and should be, a day with a high reaching 90 or higher.  All a high min does is simply describe the amount of water vapor in the air not really heat.  A high min means more water vapor, not actual heat.  I, as a matter of fact, strongly recommend that when we calculate summer heat we ONLY use the high temperature to calculate averages, that would alleviate a lot of problems that come from water vapor taint.

I was shivering today, this was in no way shape or form a warm day!

But just a few days ago you said:

”anyone thinking next week is going to somehow be cool is sorely mistaken”

I took note of it because I said this week would feature cool days.

So did I win the chicken dinner or did you ?

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs has tons of easterly flow next 10-14 days. 

If this were March/April we'd be in the 40s with dreary conditions & gusty winds nearly everyday. 

But in October it's not so bad. 

When I pointed this out yesterday, I kind of got smacked down. Just sayin

Today has the feel of a hot summer morning. Very weird