the_other_guy

Warm today. City was downright balmy.

Over performed and lots of melting

9 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yea its not good.  Storm is tucked in way too close. Gonna be a lot disappointed folks today I think 

I think you need to give it some more time.

I would like to see some more radar activity of the transition. Then lets see where shore temps stand.

In fairness, shore mixing was always modeled. I read “that wont happen” many times haha

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I just have to go with probabilistic. IF the GFSV16 wins, I learn... but too many models now mixing to NYC. Rgem even has sleet into Middlesex county tomorrow morning for a time.  My guess this storm is going to knock out power to at least 100, 000 customers.  Some of our posters may suffer with this, either no comms, or home damage.  This to me is a storm that administrators need to pause life for 12-18 hours tomorrow and then allow for late night cleanup and declare snow emergencies. Just my take. If the 12z models back off, then they can save the embarrassment but as I see it,  this is a worthy consideration. 

FIRST responders are going to need access to places to save lives.  Did I say dangerous? While wind probably stays under 70 MPH on LI,  it's still quite a storm. 

IF temp at CP can stay under 33F Monday night, then we're good for much more than a foot NYC.  I cannot confidently say to media and whomever, that that is the prevailing.  You can give them that 18-20" option but broadcast probable.  A foot will make many happy, i think.  

I

Life has been paused since March 13. haha. No rush to the local train station on Tuesday I can assure you

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree longitude in this setup especially matters more than latitude.

We have a second house in Wading River for 30 plus years.

Sometimes, during extreme coastal storms, they have done better than city.

But for the most part, the climate fundamentals are against a start to finish coastal snowstorm on eastern LI. They are surrounded by water that is well above freezing all year long. 

The needle has to thread perfectly, and when it does it’s usually not a perfect storm for the city because it is too far east

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Now we just need the snow lol

You just need to live like 4 miles north and that’s where the snow is on the ground at present 

13F. Nice!

I always remember New York City mixing with rain.

More often than not, major snowstorms ended with drizzle growing up in Queens

It didnt effect totals too much...tail end stuff

Another .5 overnight (which surprised me).

Had this all fallen at night, the 1-3 would have worked.

1.1 inches total

Snow falling again.

.6 thus far. Pretty

Rates have definitely picked up over the last 20 minutes, visibility down.

I’m not sure how that’s happening because the radar is sparse, but that tells me this thing is blossoming a bit

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

30 degrees at the border, colder than expected but rates are garbage. 

Rates are about to become non existent.

nice little dusting

All snow now in Hastings

Sleet in Hastings on Hudson

15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

WWA advisory for everyone except NYC/LI

Looks like NYC is included. Just LI isnt

For those that equated this weather to a New York City meal

Appetizer: Peanut butter crackers out of the vending machine

Main Course: You get to watch a girl named Virginia eat a day old Mc Donalds burger

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People wanted blocking and look what's happening.  I will take my chances with front end stuff.

BLOCKING! hahaha

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So much for that very favorable January pattern. How can we be shut out of every storm ? Its amazing.

5 years doesnt make a long term pattern, but I fear climate change has finally caught up to us. The gaps between snowfall, the gaps between cold air, the near constant plus 2...it is a killer for an area that had average highs in the upper 30s before this. Every event become a thread the needle scenario

This week not producing is a big deal. Any winter with a goose egg in January isn’t a good winter buy any definition.

Fat lady is starting to warm up boys.

One warm outbreak in February and you can stick a fork in this winter...again.

19F at 730. Not quite as cold as yesterday

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Model soundings show dry about 700mb. Upper level divergence and lift are weak. Vorticity is weakening. There's just not a lot of modeled support for precipitation generating mechanisms east of CPA. Maybe things moisten up in the short term. Or maybe a few areas get lucky with isolated banding. Otherwise I think we are looking at a minor event.

I think the question is minor vs non existent if trends hold correct

The models are all saying the same thing over and over. 

Be it flurries, light snow, a dusting, or a couple or inches...this isnt our storm due to dry air shredding the storm apart.

End of story...unless something changes dramatically.

On Tuesday, let’s not have rehash of what went wrong with the models as we do time and again. 

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I've always wondered, why is there a lag with sunrises not getting earlier until the middle of January?  Why is there an assymetry between sunrises and sunsets?

Goodie! We can start talking about sun angle soon. haha

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Better than this useless not quite cold and not warm enough to do outside stuff that we've been having for the last month. I have a whole bunch of car work to do so why don't you see if you can order up some of those 60's for me.

There is a nice piece of property in Raleigh for you. Save a lot on taxes too 

33 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I can see it getting later and later and one reason is the heat island. The city has put up many large skyscrapers in the past 10 years and it has expanded east into Brooklyn and Queens. This morning for example, Central Park is 28 and most suburbs were in the teens. I was down to 17. 

Yes that is a big part of it. But a warmer, more humid climate is the other (larger) piece.

NYC just doesnt get cold at night anymore, sadly.

Has anybody else noticed how warm it’s been relative to forecast from five days ago?

This week was never supposed to be in the low to mid 40s, but that is where we have been thus far...even with cold front passage.

This is turning out to be a very mild January.