the_other_guy

52 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I thought everything was pretty well explained in here. 

I think it was an echo chamber of wish-casting…but Im not the prediction expert others are.

Very early on seemed like a tail chasing the dog

what happened to the pattern change y’all discussed for the last few weeks?

59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

close the shades for awhile enjoy the holidays with your familes/friends to the best that you can right now...

Just dont turn on the news

3 hours ago, North and West said:

.

Mid 90s TWC graphics!!

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

every once in awhile it works out-Dec 08 had snow in Seattle AND the east coast-coast to coast cold-but it's rare.   

Yes they need such an extreme pattern to get accumulating snow… 

If you get your jollies off other peoples driving misery… YouTube Seattle snow icy roads. Hours of entertainment

23 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

seattle expecting snow the next two weeks. lucky them

Very rare and Almost always a bad sign for our snow chances

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

whole winter could be a torch if that -PNA is strong

Which, given the endless warmth this December seems likely.

You have your mid January saying…I have mine: Good winters don’t start with Decembers like this.

Now you hope for a couple of large storms that save seasonal snowfall…but prolonged cold or “normal” winter conditions. Nah. 

And the dryness is also a concern

46 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

We will have missed about three weeks of normal southern NY and southern New England ski season. Winter for most people is more than just watching snowfall. It is about actually enjoying winter sports and toys. The overnight lows have sucked and been way too warm to even make snow. 

Ski season has been a disaster thus far. We are just getting going now…as you said 3 weeks late

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This was the fourth warmest first three weeks of December in NYC.  8 out of the 10 warmest average temperatures occurred since the late 90s. The most recent La Ninas this warm in December were 2011, 1998, and 1999.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 21	Missing Count
1	2015-12-21	50.2	0
2	2001-12-21	48.9	0
3	1998-12-21	48.7	0
4	2021-12-21	44.8	0
5	2012-12-21	44.7	0
6	2011-12-21	43.9	0
7	1999-12-21	43.7	0
-	1984-12-21	43.7	0
8	2006-12-21	43.5	0
-	1923-12-21	43.5	0
9	1990-12-21	43.3	0
10	1956-12-21	43.2	0

Scary that there were 3 others warmer

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models continue in push back mode. The forecast colder pattern near the end of December is now warmer than the old run. This is the same thing that happened for Christmas from a week ago. It’s one of the problems with such a strong -PNA pattern.

New run

Old run

 

 

Well AN air for the foreseeable future.

Goose egg for December seems likely.

28F this morning…even that is AN for my location

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What would it take to be super warm across the whole continent?  Alaska, Canada and the CONUS too?!  Has it ever happened?

 

It is happening

21F. 

24 hours of winter for the solstice haha

22 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

winter officially hasn't even began lol but seriously it's been so warm the global warming is really taking over now. i wonder how warm it's going to get in say 30 years if we don't change our course!

What does “changing course” entail?

cutter on xmas?

Cant even make this up…

1 hour ago, WeatherFox said:

Current reality in next 7 days for NYC.  Progressive pattern, lack of enough cold air, unlikely phasing, and no White Christmas. 
 

Today

Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Breezy, with a northwest wind 16 to 20 mph. 

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind 8 to 17 mph. 

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 39. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. 

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. 

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 46. West wind 6 to 9 mph becoming east in the afternoon. 

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 35.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Friday

Partly sunny, with a high near 47.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Christmas Day

Partly sunny, with a high near 48.

Running +5. Quite warm pattern. barring one off stuff, NYC doesnt get snow with +5

Edit: And correcting warmer we get closer. Nyc now closing in on 50 for xmas. A few days ago, it was near freezing

56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

On its face no December snowfall in a Nina is bad but we've seen a lot of things that we've never had before lately. 

Maybe this could be the first time we see 30"+ after 0" in December in a Nina.

Depends what you are looking for to save winter.

Goose egg for Dec plus Sept thru Dec warmth doesnt lead to a good winter especially a Nina setup.

Does one 30 inch historic storm save winter? Like 2015

Or was 2015 a scary island of warmth, with almost no snow outside that storm? That 30 inches melted in one week…which was crazy.

10 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

it's always 10 days from now!

Only in a bad pattern when you are desperately looking for a new pattern.

We had a very warm fall.

Nov eeked out a negative. That was with the new baseline and it was barely negative.

The latest guidance for the rest of December doesn’t look great. The fat lady hasn’t started singing yet but she’s warming up for December.

We have also gone into a very dry pattern…Which we haven’t had much of lately.

This isn’t how good winters start.

Looks like another AN week ahead. Some days very much so.

Just a brutal month.

Forsythia has buds on it… 

54F Beautiful. If you could lower the taxes it would be like living in the Carolinas. Still in shorts and a T.

I find it interesting that we’re not even in the warmest departures across the nation. I guess it could have been worse thus far.

Also of note, as I was flying over fly over country the past two days, There isn’t much snow anywhere… But if you’re going skiing in the Salt Lake City area Utah has been getting a good amount. That area and the eastern California are the only areas of snow cover observed

12 hours ago, Nibor said:

I'll be fine. I just don't wanna give it to anyone else. I know too many people who've lost family members.

Are you the guy from Astoria quoted on page 4 of the Daily News?

Feel better all kidding aside

You wonder how much longer skiing will be viable in the Catskills in this rapidly warming climate? Sad

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

I posted in banter but there’s still a fair amount of trees here in my neighborhood with leaves. Some have only recently started changing color. 

youre living over a geothermal

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Thursday and Friday will be our annual warm up within about 5 days of the solstice.

 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/15/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21| WED 22|THU CLIMO
 N/X  46  62| 46  64| 40  44| 36  46| 25  39| 27  49| 32  45| 34 28 43

 

This is different. never cooled down. this year, the solstice will actually be the cool point in the month thus far.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

There is alot to be excited about. 

Yes like the 15° swing from Westchester to Queens this morning. You could almost plant pansies for xmas