the_other_guy

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

By that logic, the first week of December in 1976 wasn’t really the 2nd coldest on record at Newark. There was only one record cold day out of 7 when the low dropped to 9°. None of the other days had lows in the single digits. So you can see where your line of reasoning leads to.

You have issues when people try to engage you with a counterpoint 

He makes valid points; so do you.

There is a new normal. He is saying, it’s not all that many days above normal. You are looking at the historical perspective of every week being in a top 10 because we are warmer now than 120 years of records prior to this point.
 

His counterpoint (not failed reasoning) is that running around like chicken little every year it is warm is bizarre when it is the new normal. We have another poster that keeps referencing old baselines vs the new baseline with “nowadays.”

It is good to have a historical perspective, but it is also fair to point out that the baseline as changed and the temps aren’t all that unusual. In a weather based forum vs a climate based forum, it is important to at least acknowledge what he is saying

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What makes you think the whole month will be warm?

I’m not saying the whole month will be warm… I am saying that between now and the 21st it’s going to be above normal just about every day.

Unless it shoots up to 80 on the solstice, Any above normal reading around that day is gonna look like the next two weeks

49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

meh 60s and sunny is a lot better than 40s and rain, I say keep it warm until it can actually snow around here

 

Hey there are skiers on here and 40’s work better than 60s

28F

Too bad that little storm didnt pan out. Would have been a nice touch of winter

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another very warm pattern next few weeks as the warm up approaching the solstice and Christmas is becoming an an annual event.

Wont be a warm up this year…gonna be warm right through

Snow and 34F

Was up at Mt Fuji in Hillburn 32F with a coating

The 90s get over shadowed by 94 and 96. A lot of garbage in between though

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Dec 2015 we hit 60 a dozen times including 71 on Xmas eve. I'm not sure we can top that

Yeah everybody’s clamoring for a record… But 2015 busted all that. you’re not gonna hit any weekly or monthly record 

Not even going to be close. 

And as we get closer to the solstice, that week is in the 50s every year now. Almost normal

2 hours ago, dWave said:

97-98 was the virtually snowless winter until the late March 5" surprise storm, depriving us of the least snowiest season on record. The 0.5" seemed right to me. I had no idea LGA recorded a couple inches. Under such marginal conditions maybe LGA got under a heavy snow band allowing some acclumation or bringing down enough cold for a brief change to snow at some point. The Park can be bad, but 0.5" was a good representation of that winter in the city. I remember seeing no snow acclumation until the late March storm..which melted in the March sun by sunset, and a hot end to March followed if I remember right. That was around the time I started to give up on the city/coast being a snowy place. I took it as the price paid to the snow gods for the epic 95-96 season. Then the 2000s came and everything flipped lol

Wasn’t that the season where the snow kept changing to rain? If so timing for the measurement really is key

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

thats all I could summon after 8 pages

55 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Its not as easy as it sounds.  Costs about one million dollars per miles to bury existing lines.  All new developments get underground.   Burying existing ones means roads cut up, side walks, yards etc...After that, then you have to do all services underground, electric, cable, Internet to houses and businesses.   

One of my old jobs, we were putting in new gas and electric lines underground for a developer.  Nothing around except dirt, so no risk of hitting everything.  Its all shale here.  We got 1500 feet down in 10 hours.  Now imagine doing this in developed areas. The process would be Alot slower. The same Karen's would complain about traffic and/or road closures.

 

Live on a mountain where power goes out a few times a year?  Buy a generator, be prepared.  

It’s funny my block is all below ground because it was built in the 80s and 90s via blasting into a steep rock. But it connects to roads and houses built in the 40s and that’s where all the power is fed from… above ground.

You are only as good as your weakest point.

33F this morning

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Mid-December is on track to be  the 3rd warmest for the entire CONUS averaged out. You can see how many top 10 warmest years there have been since 2001. This is coming after one of the warmest first weeks of December for parts of the country. So there should be some very impressive warm departures by the solstice.
 

So youre saying we are lucky that our deps are so low compared to the mid section?

34 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Considering the pattern(s) that has been in place for months I would be very leery of forecasting a significant pattern change. 

Exactly

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Nov 1989 would be the top end potential of this

 

Thats the thanksgiving number right?

Was a nice event.

Nothing beautiful about today at JFK. Gusty chilly overcast mess 

53F Wind gusting to 34 mph with mist

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Ironic thing though if you compare Feb 2015 to Dec 2015 they are almost diametrically opposite in terms of anomalies.

 

Agreed. Crazy year. LI Sound Ice. But we are talking about December in this conversation

12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What is your agenda? I dont get it. 

There is no agenda. We consistently talk about that El Niño as some super event on this forum. I read it all the time “super nino”

When you put up a chart showing a warming trend over a decade for the month of December and the entire eastern half of the country is blood red, perhaps a footnote.

I know we certainly never had a Dec anywhere near that. Have we ever had any other month of the year in New York City that had a +12? 

If so that may be worth mentioning in the data.

Doesn’t affect the data but gives a lot of context

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How long before we get a 90 average for July?

 

Better get rid of humidity if you want to hit that average.

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If you're going to take away the warmest anomaly you also need to take away the coldest anomaly and then see what you're left with

 

That’s why a median is a median. Take them both away and you still don’t have the anomalies in the original chart.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

picking cherries is so much fun

 

You guys are being smart for no reason.

It’s the difference between a mean and the median if you remember mathematics.

If you take one year with a +12 you skew the entire average.

when you look at the median you realize it’s nowhere near +12 and that there is warming but a color-coded chart with an average doesn’t tell the real story.

You guys should be so precise with failed long range predictions and sea-sawing opinions of models on this forum.

It’s Monday…is the GFS great or a failed model today? :/

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

While December 2015 has been the most extreme expression of the US December warming trend, the composite of the other years since 2011 shows  the same pattern.

 

 

That’s a much better look at the data though.

it shows much less of a warming trend in the last half of the decade.

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

December has been the warmest winter departure month over the last decade. It’s  no surprise that the models have corrected so much warmer in recent days. Summer has been extended into fall and fall into early winter.

But if you notice it’s heavily weighted to the eastern half of the country.

I would like to see this chart without the 2015 El Nino in it. That would be a bit more balanced. What was that month? +12F?

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Beautiful Dec day, Sunny, 50 calm wind

 

 

Easily +7 over forecast

9 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

so we're getting a warm and sunny winter you think?

Actually, the Gfs weeklies said that, so the opposite. I think. Depends on whos posting…

10 hours ago, lee59 said:

Maples seem to be some of the last trees to lose their leaves. Although in my area there are not many trees with leaves, some maples are still hanging on but even those are losing many of the leaves. I'm not sure what trees they have in the Daytona area beside Palms and evergreens but their coldest November temperature was 47 compared to NYC 30.

Lots of elms, red maple, sweetgums, sycamore, oaks, and magnolia.

34F in Hastings at 7am