the_other_guy

3 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I couldn’t care less what it shows. Above normal temps coinciding with above normal snowfall is becoming the new norm. Torch away as long as I get my 40+ inches.

Doesnt work like that long term. Like saying the house is on fire but Im nice and warm

We arent the new Denver.

We are in transition to DC or Norfolk.

33F this morning.

Moderate frost on cold surfaces only

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Funny because I was just outside checking, and my vegetable plants are still in decent shape. Hardly any damage to the tomato, pepper, eggplant and pole lima bean plants. Just a tiny bit. Must've been just a very light brief frost here. I know we have frost/freeze threats again tonight and tomorrow night though, so maybe they won't be able to make it through this stretch.

Because hitting 32° for an hour doesn’t really end the growing season… Even if it does on paper.

You really need a hard freeze or extended freeze.

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

surprised that 2001 doesnt make this list

 

What’s scary is that 2021 isn’t even close to the other years

23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Notwithstanding the first frost, many of the trees are still completely green. One of the latest leaf changes that I can remember. 

It’s an odd leaf change as well… Particularly in warmer areas like the city. I notice a lot of the leaves have just dried up and started falling off the trees with out ever going through a color transformation. Almost all of the maples on my parents block in Queens are just dried up leaves. 

6 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Yeah, winter during winter would be a nice change.  A white Christmas for all too would be sweet. One can dream. 

The problem is, historically, if you’re dealing with a very warm fall… And this is almost like an El Niño fall… You’re going to get a crappy Winter if you like winter.

Temperature wise, the best thing that could happen is in November at or slightly below normal. But if we’re shooting for 72 next week… And I think those are usually extreme (on the warm side) this far out…You could start to see a clearer picture of where we’re headed

2 hours ago, guinness77 said:

What the hell was that gust of wind that just blew by? Wow. 
And….it’s raining. Wtf? 

It came out of nowhere! Like a gust front…But its still October

Unforecasted rain in the LHV!

Actually warm in the sun! 62F

Brutal wind, heavy rain and freezing temperatures in southern Westchester this midday Saturday.

And the NWS and forecasters wonder why an entire city ignored warnings for IDA.

Yosemite on arrival into SFO.

Snow line from storm just to the west.

Sierras covered very nicely from the event at higher altitudes

Inbound to EWR. On time. Rain stopped. SW winds at 10 knots at the moment.

They even turned the airport around to land on the 22s.

Not anything like the aviation forecast from this morning…happily

21 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

 

Going up to Monticello to stay the night at the casino.  Maybe some good colors there.   Also see you're from Oceanside.  Their fire dept is our "sister station" as they say

Lots of color in westchester. I am imagining they are just at or past peak? Share pics!

42F Coldest night so far

Of course weeklies long range aren’t reliable… The thing that I’m sure a lot of posters find frustrating is that many of us take the warm weeklies and hang onto them like they’re gospel, but when we see long range cold, we dismiss it as unreliable.

Food for thought on an early Sunday…

20 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Actually a little higher than that in the immediate metro area, 63 Central Park and 64 Newark, 62 Islip. But to your point it is already 60 in Central Park, although a lot of the more rural areas are quite a bit chillier.

 yeah some variation depending on location in region. I don’t see any air besides normal or above normal. Maybe slightly below monday and tues.

Normal high today is 60 Give or take a degree or two depending on what part of the region you’re in

Just for perspective…

Who would ever make a call for November in New York City to be snowy?

As someone above pointed out it’s happened a few times AND almost always leads to a nearly snowless winter to follow.

As another poster mentioned, a warm Sept Oct and Nov is almost always a sign of a warm winter.

In the next 3-4 weeks you will know if winter is going to arrive or if we have to hope for small-ball, pattern, one-off snow events like Feb 2014 or Feb 95

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Not necessarily, there have been warmer than normal October and November in the past that lead to cold/snowy winters. The problem is when all 3 months (September, October, November) are warmer than normal, that it almost always leads to a bad outcome 

Correct.

The guys glossing it over by saying every winter is above normal are missing the point. using the new baseline, it still would be a warmer than normal winter.

Lets see what November brings.

This week is shot again.

Back above normal already, 80 tomorrow, 70s through Friday. It doesn’t signal a cool down or a pattern change, but rather a transient cool shot.

Let’s see how we do early next week. If late next week starts to look like 70 again, you know what we are dealing with…and it isnt good

31 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Not for you or me but if it is clear and no wind, those colder suburbs north and west will see it. Some did last night.

Next sunday-tuesday 

Only 57F at noon. 49F at 8am

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

was crazy-big pieces of LI sound frozen-haven't seen it since and hadn't really seen it before (going back to 1990 when I came here)

We lived on the Long Island sound since 1986… That is the only time we ever saw that

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Going to under perform today temp wise with these clouds.

 

Also under performed yesterday, vs forecasts on this forum.

Supposed to be widespread 80s right?

 

Not that it really matters… it’s warm

 

I take it back! Cleared and gorgeous! 

46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes that's how pathetic things have been. 

I think it'll be easier if we just recognize it's gonna be like this every "fall". 

Our climate is warm & wet. Time to deal with it 

This cool down is down to 3 days. That is the funny thing after all that.

Tues thru Friday look down right warm

Going to under perform today temp wise with these clouds.

Also under performed yesterday, vs forecasts on this forum.

Supposed to be widespread 80s right?

Not that it really matters… it’s warm

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

October  15 and I'm still wearing shorts

LoL

I haven’t put them away at all! New climate aint all bad