the_other_guy

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a lot of people I've talked to aren't fazed by the mild December.

Isn't this how December always is now? Is what I'm getting

Then they go on to say that winter really begins in January, really January 20th (since we've gotten a lot of big snowstorms around that time.)

 

If you are waiting for winter on 1/20, you have a shit winter.

Plus, the last several years have featured 3 week shutout patterns…many of which occurred in January.

Even that frigid new years week a few years ago led to 2-3 weeks of AN 

I think we need a really good pattern or we get nothing. It isnt as simple as winter start in later… Novembers have really been pretty good. unfortunately it’s a waste of November.

December has warmed dramatically

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the 90s outside of two great years were garbage 

Quoting me again huh haha

The 80s were cold. 90s colder than this

You knew it was winter even with little snow

What we have now is a dying season

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Hahahahaha what a burn. Was going to come back to bite at some point 

It’s stupid childish behavior.

The first instance I never said 2015 didn’t count… I said that because it was so high, it skewed the decade average and a median would show a better picture of decade wide trends.

Today I pointed out that we had a record week in December and this week isn’t going to be anywhere close to it despite posters yearning for a headline.

Both very valid points.

But you two guys pretend that you are in junior high school reading a Snaps books and throwing around emojis.

I don’t get burned or feel burned when I present factual information.

Here are the High Temps for NYC from this week in 2015

61 66 66 66 68 52 59

Lets cut the sensationalist garbage already.

It’s warm enough without the exaggerations needed. 

sultry in Charleston this morning already 63F. Yesterday was downright cool and today its going to be hot on the east coast

57 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Just for my information:

Does anyone know for what reason Fireworks are being shot off near the Statue of Liberty at 6:30pm for 2 minutes and again right now at 6:55pm.

I can see,hear and feel them here in CI, 9.5mi. away?     Thanks.

Celebrate another mask mandate? Yea! Boom!

15 minutes ago, Nibor said:

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

By that logic, the first week of December in 1976 wasn’t really the 2nd coldest on record at Newark. There was only one record cold day out of 7 when the low dropped to 9°. None of the other days had lows in the single digits. So you can see where your line of reasoning leads to.

You have issues when people try to engage you with a counterpoint 

He makes valid points; so do you.

There is a new normal. He is saying, it’s not all that many days above normal. You are looking at the historical perspective of every week being in a top 10 because we are warmer now than 120 years of records prior to this point.
 

His counterpoint (not failed reasoning) is that running around like chicken little every year it is warm is bizarre when it is the new normal. We have another poster that keeps referencing old baselines vs the new baseline with “nowadays.”

It is good to have a historical perspective, but it is also fair to point out that the baseline as changed and the temps aren’t all that unusual. In a weather based forum vs a climate based forum, it is important to at least acknowledge what he is saying

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What makes you think the whole month will be warm?

I’m not saying the whole month will be warm… I am saying that between now and the 21st it’s going to be above normal just about every day.

Unless it shoots up to 80 on the solstice, Any above normal reading around that day is gonna look like the next two weeks

49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

meh 60s and sunny is a lot better than 40s and rain, I say keep it warm until it can actually snow around here

 

Hey there are skiers on here and 40’s work better than 60s

28F

Too bad that little storm didnt pan out. Would have been a nice touch of winter

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another very warm pattern next few weeks as the warm up approaching the solstice and Christmas is becoming an an annual event.

Wont be a warm up this year…gonna be warm right through

Snow and 34F

Was up at Mt Fuji in Hillburn 32F with a coating

The 90s get over shadowed by 94 and 96. A lot of garbage in between though

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Dec 2015 we hit 60 a dozen times including 71 on Xmas eve. I'm not sure we can top that

Yeah everybody’s clamoring for a record… But 2015 busted all that. you’re not gonna hit any weekly or monthly record 

Not even going to be close. 

And as we get closer to the solstice, that week is in the 50s every year now. Almost normal

2 hours ago, dWave said:

97-98 was the virtually snowless winter until the late March 5" surprise storm, depriving us of the least snowiest season on record. The 0.5" seemed right to me. I had no idea LGA recorded a couple inches. Under such marginal conditions maybe LGA got under a heavy snow band allowing some acclumation or bringing down enough cold for a brief change to snow at some point. The Park can be bad, but 0.5" was a good representation of that winter in the city. I remember seeing no snow acclumation until the late March storm..which melted in the March sun by sunset, and a hot end to March followed if I remember right. That was around the time I started to give up on the city/coast being a snowy place. I took it as the price paid to the snow gods for the epic 95-96 season. Then the 2000s came and everything flipped lol

Wasn’t that the season where the snow kept changing to rain? If so timing for the measurement really is key

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

thats all I could summon after 8 pages

55 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Its not as easy as it sounds.  Costs about one million dollars per miles to bury existing lines.  All new developments get underground.   Burying existing ones means roads cut up, side walks, yards etc...After that, then you have to do all services underground, electric, cable, Internet to houses and businesses.   

One of my old jobs, we were putting in new gas and electric lines underground for a developer.  Nothing around except dirt, so no risk of hitting everything.  Its all shale here.  We got 1500 feet down in 10 hours.  Now imagine doing this in developed areas. The process would be Alot slower. The same Karen's would complain about traffic and/or road closures.

 

Live on a mountain where power goes out a few times a year?  Buy a generator, be prepared.  

It’s funny my block is all below ground because it was built in the 80s and 90s via blasting into a steep rock. But it connects to roads and houses built in the 40s and that’s where all the power is fed from… above ground.

You are only as good as your weakest point.

33F this morning

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Mid-December is on track to be  the 3rd warmest for the entire CONUS averaged out. You can see how many top 10 warmest years there have been since 2001. This is coming after one of the warmest first weeks of December for parts of the country. So there should be some very impressive warm departures by the solstice.
 

So youre saying we are lucky that our deps are so low compared to the mid section?

34 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Considering the pattern(s) that has been in place for months I would be very leery of forecasting a significant pattern change. 

Exactly

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Nov 1989 would be the top end potential of this

 

Thats the thanksgiving number right?

Was a nice event.

Nothing beautiful about today at JFK. Gusty chilly overcast mess 

53F Wind gusting to 34 mph with mist

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Ironic thing though if you compare Feb 2015 to Dec 2015 they are almost diametrically opposite in terms of anomalies.

 

Agreed. Crazy year. LI Sound Ice. But we are talking about December in this conversation

12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What is your agenda? I dont get it. 

There is no agenda. We consistently talk about that El Niño as some super event on this forum. I read it all the time “super nino”

When you put up a chart showing a warming trend over a decade for the month of December and the entire eastern half of the country is blood red, perhaps a footnote.

I know we certainly never had a Dec anywhere near that. Have we ever had any other month of the year in New York City that had a +12? 

If so that may be worth mentioning in the data.

Doesn’t affect the data but gives a lot of context

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How long before we get a 90 average for July?

 

Better get rid of humidity if you want to hit that average.