the_other_guy

24 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

wall to wall winter from november to april? never again. we've warmed too much

In my lifetime, we never had wall to wall.

Even 96 wasnt

But yes, those days of getting close are gone.

What is amazing to see are places in the Adirondacks like Lake Placid that used to be wall to wall no longer are. 

We went up there every christmas. Always snowy and cold. They havent has a good xmas week in years!!

This change didnt happen gradually… it happen rapidly. All within 20 years

See the problem?

This is always 10 days out

We had a winter like this several years ago

10 days out is fantasy land

Anything in a reliable time frame shows the same pattern

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

that's how low the bar has gotten

In my adult life I remember more New Year’s Days in the 50s then snow on the ground

December has become such a disaster. Very sad

Already closing in on 50F with brilliant sunshine.

What a miserable month for winter lovers. Stick a fork in it

Meanwhile at Hunter Mountain…foggy mushy chilly

Ironically, this is Seattle winter weather

40F Mist at moment

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Not a torch but some above normal days the next 10 for sure though. The new 0Z guidance (Euro, GFS, CMC) are very ugly for snow right through day 10+. Ditto for the UKMET and ICON through the ends of their respective runs. If we get to mid-January without a big change or one imminent, it will be really troubling to say the least. A warmer than normal December with well below average snow during a La Niña is typically a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter…..

I dont know why you got a weenie for this statement. Its true. Almost like we are now dealing with emotions over weather…

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Speaking of which the sunrise yesterday was awesome and I can tell the days are getting longer because I no longer have to turn my lights on before 4:30!  Now I turn them on at 4:45

 

Todays sunrise

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What a torchy rest of the week. 50s and even 60+ readings.

Winter is dead until further notice

It was never going to be cold this week.

lots of people talking themselves into a pattern change 2 weeks out

that is why the January thread is already 5, YES 5, pages long on Dec 28

They will be disappointed next week again…just like they were last week. Looks like some intermittent seasonal temps between spikes of 50s. 
 

It is a west year. They need it. And frankly, we need some dry months

Nobody else has this sleet??

Surprised the forum is so quiet!

Dec 26

Quickly becoming the symbol of this winter

45F, shorts. Another week of 50F inbound!

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The Monday deal could easily punch warmth too far north or get shredded. Riding the narrow cold leading edge of a warm front is a tricky proposition. The important thing is there are a few medium and larger range wintry threats to keep entertained for now.

too warm. You need to start with some cold air to make these thread the needle threats work. There’s a good chance I won’t even go below freezing until the 30th… i’m 15 miles north of the city.

.5.

Ill take it! Merry Christmas all!

52 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I thought everything was pretty well explained in here. 

I think it was an echo chamber of wish-casting…but Im not the prediction expert others are.

Very early on seemed like a tail chasing the dog

what happened to the pattern change y’all discussed for the last few weeks?

59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

close the shades for awhile enjoy the holidays with your familes/friends to the best that you can right now...

Just dont turn on the news

3 hours ago, North and West said:

.

Mid 90s TWC graphics!!

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

every once in awhile it works out-Dec 08 had snow in Seattle AND the east coast-coast to coast cold-but it's rare.   

Yes they need such an extreme pattern to get accumulating snow… 

If you get your jollies off other peoples driving misery… YouTube Seattle snow icy roads. Hours of entertainment

23 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

seattle expecting snow the next two weeks. lucky them

Very rare and Almost always a bad sign for our snow chances

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

whole winter could be a torch if that -PNA is strong

Which, given the endless warmth this December seems likely.

You have your mid January saying…I have mine: Good winters don’t start with Decembers like this.

Now you hope for a couple of large storms that save seasonal snowfall…but prolonged cold or “normal” winter conditions. Nah. 

And the dryness is also a concern

46 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

We will have missed about three weeks of normal southern NY and southern New England ski season. Winter for most people is more than just watching snowfall. It is about actually enjoying winter sports and toys. The overnight lows have sucked and been way too warm to even make snow. 

Ski season has been a disaster thus far. We are just getting going now…as you said 3 weeks late

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This was the fourth warmest first three weeks of December in NYC.  8 out of the 10 warmest average temperatures occurred since the late 90s. The most recent La Ninas this warm in December were 2011, 1998, and 1999.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 21	Missing Count
1	2015-12-21	50.2	0
2	2001-12-21	48.9	0
3	1998-12-21	48.7	0
4	2021-12-21	44.8	0
5	2012-12-21	44.7	0
6	2011-12-21	43.9	0
7	1999-12-21	43.7	0
-	1984-12-21	43.7	0
8	2006-12-21	43.5	0
-	1923-12-21	43.5	0
9	1990-12-21	43.3	0
10	1956-12-21	43.2	0

Scary that there were 3 others warmer

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models continue in push back mode. The forecast colder pattern near the end of December is now warmer than the old run. This is the same thing that happened for Christmas from a week ago. It’s one of the problems with such a strong -PNA pattern.

New run

Old run

 

 

Well AN air for the foreseeable future.

Goose egg for December seems likely.

28F this morning…even that is AN for my location

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What would it take to be super warm across the whole continent?  Alaska, Canada and the CONUS too?!  Has it ever happened?

 

It is happening