the_other_guy

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

December has been the warmest winter departure month over the last decade. It’s  no surprise that the models have corrected so much warmer in recent days. Summer has been extended into fall and fall into early winter.

But if you notice it’s heavily weighted to the eastern half of the country.

I would like to see this chart without the 2015 El Nino in it. That would be a bit more balanced. What was that month? +12F?

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Beautiful Dec day, Sunny, 50 calm wind

 

 

Easily +7 over forecast

9 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

so we're getting a warm and sunny winter you think?

Actually, the Gfs weeklies said that, so the opposite. I think. Depends on whos posting…

10 hours ago, lee59 said:

Maples seem to be some of the last trees to lose their leaves. Although in my area there are not many trees with leaves, some maples are still hanging on but even those are losing many of the leaves. I'm not sure what trees they have in the Daytona area beside Palms and evergreens but their coldest November temperature was 47 compared to NYC 30.

Lots of elms, red maple, sweetgums, sycamore, oaks, and magnolia.

34F in Hastings at 7am

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Who believes this ? I think the jury is still out on this one...but as I mentioned earlier it seems the CMC was the most consistent and other models are trending towards it now - CMC 2 runs ago showed a SECS

Wasnt everybody throwing in the towel on December a few days ago because the GFS was showing endless 60s?

Gospel or a comic strip?

I just landed from Florida. Compared to trees in southern Queens:

Daytona had fewer leaves on their non-evergreen trees

The urban areas of Jax had about the same amount of leaves on their non-evergreen trees.

In case you didnt know, trees in north Florida lose their leaves.

Nonetheless, ironic and disturbing and weird

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Final high temperatures:

Bismarck: 66° (old record: 62°, 1969) ***tied December record***
Denver: 73° (tied daily record set in 1973)
Glasgow, MT: 69° (old record: 62°, 1925) ***tied December record***
Great Falls: 69° (old record: 60°, 1907 and 1969) ***tied December record***
Helena: 70° (old record: 60°, 2008) ***new December record***
Kalispell, MT: 62° (old record: 54°, 1925) ***new December record***
Missoula, MT: 67° (old record: 55°, 1972) ***new December record***
Omak, WA: 74° (old record: 57°, 1949) ***new December record***
Phoenix: 85° (old record: 83°, 1949)
Rapid City: 74° (old record: 71°, 1973)
Sheridan, WY: 76° (old record: 71°, 1995)
Tucson: 85° (old record: 84°, 1926) ***tied December record***

Wow! To see that warmth into Montana in December…

14 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Agreed. Christmas would be considered long term guidance and we know how that can change by then. It would just be too bad if we had to so heavily rely on blocking this winter.

It’s ridiculous.

Then you realize it’s the same guys doing the same thing over and over again…in an echo chamber.

Look at the screen names…same 5 guys. It’s always gonna be +4.

Meanwhile is 35 out. Enjoy your December

I don’t know. I just drove through the Bronx and across Queens… There really isn’t enough foliage on any of these trees to shift a daytime temperature at this point.

I mean we’re talking about yesterday 

Furthermore, look at the observations from yesterday:

I bracketed the daytime observation where foliage covering the sun would be an issue.

It was overcast through 1pm with some cloud cover through at least 3pm.

A clear observation was finally made after sunset.

I appreciate what you were saying, but I think whatever foliage is left is not much of a factor especially on a day that was mostly overcast.

To dismiss the observation as inaccurate is a bit disingenuous especially when they are within a degree or two of the region

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s an error caused by the delayed leaf drop keeping thr ASOS in the shade. Even HPN made it to 40°. The temperatures won’t become reliable until the dense canopy finally drops  all its leaves. 
 

EWR 43

NYC 39

JFK 41

LGA 42

HPN 40

What is the current leaf situation in Central Park? You keep saying this and you get a bunch of people to like it.  I don’t see a thick canopy of leaves anywhere… Let alone enough to throw a temperature.

Has anybody actually been in the park and observed these conditions?

Past two years I’ve put up the Christmas lights in 50° weather. I’ve taken them down in 50° weather

These past three days of light hanging have been windy cold rainy and now snowy.

I will take this as a good sign going forward

34F Light snow/ice

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s not what the raw data says. The minimums and maximum departures have been running lower than the surrounding ASOS sites. NYC has also been running colder than many of the micronet sites. The first freeze in NYC was much closer to the recent average date than areas away from the heat Island. POU had one of their latest first freezes on record. While NYC wasn’t even close to its latest first freeze. 
 

NYC had the lowest temperature on the coldest morning this week for surrounding urban sites

11-24 low temperatures 

EWR…32

NYC…30

LGA….33

Corona….32

Queensbridge….32

East 40th Manhattan….33

What happened at TEB? 28F. Closer to CPK. Foliage?

And JFK 30F? Warm water mixed with Foliage?

You know what the real outlier has been in temperature readings? EWR. A sea of warmth. How many 70 degree readings this year? Many when no one else in the region crossed the threshold.

You know what is another warm outlier? LaGarbage. Their overnight mins are out of whack with the entire region. 

I know why at LGA…I dont know what is going on at EWR. 

But the narrative of LGA and EWR being Gospel and NYC being a throwaway really has gotten out of hand. Especially if we are talking about overnight lows…in late November…with few leaves on the trees and variances of a 28-33 in the immediate area.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the delayed leaf drop keeping the NYC ASOS in deep shade has allowed it to have a colder departure this month so far of the major ASOS sites. The other stations are -0.2 to +0.9.  While the departures will decline with colder temperatures to close out the month, NYC will be artificially low.

EWR…+0.9

NYC….-0.9

LGA…..+0.7

JFK….+0.2

ISP…..-0.2

 

Stop it! This is getting ridiculous with the leaves.

This wasnt a warm month and CPK was one of the last to record a freezing temperature in the region. It a postage stamp of grass in a sea of cement…totally insulated from elements by a wall of tall buildings on all sides

9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

March is the other cooler month and if November played out that way this year I wouldn't be surprised to see another cold March. 

Also think Jan & especially Feb torches unless there's massive blocking. Also hoping we see a 2017-2018 winter play out.

I don’t know about January and February but November and March seem to move in tandem lately. 

Another odd night of temps

37-39-30F at 630am

That is twice this week with the up and down temps.

Anyone know what is causing this?

Happy Thanksgiving

37F in Hastings

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

I went to college there for 4 years, they wedge pretty well and the higher elevations are more to their NE than the NW, so on a NW flow they dont downslope

It’s not consistent though. They’re talking about frigid outbreaks where the core is west of us unmoderated, but in general, they are much warmer than us

Just want to kick in some pilot stuff here

JFK is 5000 acres

LGA is 500 acres

LGA is a cluttered mess of buildings.

Most of JFK is open land

LGA is emblematic of Astoria.

JFK is emblematic of southern Nassau

Astoria was one of the hottest places I ever lived in. AC ran for almost 10 months a year

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

let's see if LGA gets to freezing or not.  That place has the fakest temps in the entire country, I can't believe anyone would use their data

The foliage. Too much foliage at LGA :/

Clippers dont bring 10 inches of snow.

Little more to that there…

27F at 7 am

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This is why we lock in a contract 

Gas all the way!

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

hit 32 though like JFK did

but here's a delicate question, can it be considered a freezing day if the low is above 32.0? Because 0 C (actual freezing) is 32.0 F, not 32.2 or 32.4 or anything in between?

 

I think thats “first freeze” 

I see Central Park still didn’t get below freezing. Must be that foliage 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yup December seems to pretty much be lost as a winter month

Since 2010's Boxing Day storm we haven't seen much winter in December.

 

that isn’t hard and fast. Last December for instance.

The Boxing Day storm was a major storm…but there have been several December snows since then.

What we have lost is extended cold weather in December. If you want to look at a month that’s lost to a season I’ll give you September. But December isnt quite there yet.

Ironically the warmer Decembers have been coupled with cooler Novembers.