the_other_guy

7 hours ago, SACRUS said:

9/14

PHL: 88
TTN: 84
ACY: 82
New Brnswck: 82
EWR: 81
LGA: 81
TEB: 81
NYC: 80
BLM: 79
ISP: 78
JFK: 78

Any chance to start adding HPN or SWF to this list?  

Flying around the northern end earlier this evening

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Fairly thick smoke is aloft, but not yet present near the surface. 

That will change overnight.

Ironically nothing over Tahoe or mid California today. Crystal clear. Nice view of Yosemite from above

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was just talking SON with is meteorological fall. December is the first month of meteorological winter. December has also seen a very big average temperature rise from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 climate normals.

 

 

. 

And funny the last month of winter and first month of summer have the slowest temp rise.

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This was a Harvey like situation.  There are no simple answers.....you can't simply shelter in place.  Staying off the roads does no good if your home isn't safe either.

People like to comfort themselves with mindless cliches like "Turn around dont drown".....but what if there is no place left to go?

It’s a sad situation…And of course that usually affects the most vulnerable.

In that part of queens you have a lot of immigrants, don’t speak English, Don’t know the rules, they live in illegal basement apartments.

If I had to bet… they had no way out

Saw Mill River just a wee bit out of its banks

Newark Airport gets a bath it didnt want ✈️

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NYC CP as of about 908P  2.13 out so today. Note wind directions below. Unsure if wind eqmt out or a GW? or just a convergent zone. 

KNYC 020106Z AUTO 1/4SM +RA FG BKN008 OVC013 19/18 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 26033/0058 P0043 T01890178 $
KNYC 020059Z AUTO 26015G33KT 240V310 1SM +RA BR BKN008 OVC013 21/19 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 26033/0058 PRESRR P0004 T02060194 $
KNYC 020051Z AUTO 08012G23KT 2SM RA BR BKN006 OVC013 21/20 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 05035/2356 VIS 1 1/2V3 CIG 005V009 PRESFR SLP977 P0055 T02060200 $ 

KJFK 020124Z 13020G33KT 6SM -TSRA BR BKN010 BKN023CB 24/23 A2950 RMK AO2 PK WND 12033/0117 LTG DSNT N AND SW TSB24 FRQ LTGIC OHD-SW TS OHD-SW MOV NE P0002 T02390233

KLGA 020122Z 34012G31KT 1 1/2SM R04/3000VP6000FT +TSRA BKN006 BKN012 OVC017CB 20/M01 A2952 RMK AO2 PK WND 25035/0110 WSHFT 0103 LTG DSNT ALQDS OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV NE P0037 T02001006

KEWR 020109Z 35019G29KT 1SM R04R/1200VP6000FT +TSRA BR BKN007 BKN011 OVC018CB 19/18 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 36032/0057 WSHFT 0048 LTG DSNT ALQDS FRQ LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV NE P0091 T01940183 $

KFRG 020116Z 11017G33KT 10SM FEW007 BKN011 OVC027 23/22 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 12033/0107 LTG DSNT SW-N RAE16 PRESFR P0002 T02330217

KISP 020056Z 09012G22KT 5SM BR SCT007 BKN013 OVC023 21/21 A2964 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W AND NW RAE45 SLP035 P0010 T02110206 $

Wide array of wind directions depending on front location and storm situation

EWR and LGA with NW winds

39 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Impossible, posters said this storm would be no big deal for NYC area. 

No One logical said it wasn’t gonna be a big deal…But the worst of it (in terms of totals) will be north and west of New York City…Because whatever falls between now and midnight, we have lost out on 6 to 8 hours of heavy rain and they didnt.

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

True. 

All it takes is a couple hours to drop 2-4"+ amounts.

Wouldnt that still be below what most models were showing?

You need that rain thats been falling all morning upstate to get those strong totals

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Looking out my window there is moderate/heavy rain. Not sure why the bust posts. 

Because models were predicting 8-10 inches of rain.

Looking at radar, the immediate metro area will miss out on several hours of heavy rain as it skirts north (at least initially)

Without those hours of precip, the storm totals becomes a bust.

Now, if you are in the mid Hudson Valley…caching.

But that is off by 80-100 miles in terms of heaviest precip bands.

By modern forecasting expectations, that is a model error (not huge, but significant nonetheless)

I believe it is cloudy in Forest Hills at moment, and pouring in Newburgh. That distance is the “bust”

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

lots of weenie posts already-let the event play out before calling bust and saying this model got it right/wrong

I’m not saying anything was wrong.

I’m saying I agree with the drier model by looking at the radar and movement of cells.

1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

And this makes sense given the radar.

This isnt a coastal storm.

A lot of people are looking at this thinking the radar is going to magically fill-in like it’s a Low forming off the Delmarva in January

3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I mean…the day is young…but based on current radar placement, I wouldn’t laugh this off yet

30 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

One of my friends is apparently gonna ride out the storm in New Orleans because of the mayor's "shelter in place" recommendation. 

I find it odd that the Mayor keeps saying “there is no time”

I read that yesterday and today. Imagine how many people you could have evacuated in the past 24 hours if you reversed the interstates yesterday while the storm was crossing Cuba instead of saying “there is no time”

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The best part is the TAFs...60kts at ISP and 44kts at JFK.  My hunch is there is some sort of agreement to appease NHC for the warnings because 925 winds do not support anything remotely near that.

 

 

 

We will know by 11-1pm haha

That’s when this is supposed to crank that high

All the LI Airports last hour.

Gusty from Brookhaven out.

Even Islip is fairly calm

1 hour ago, Hc7 said:

I dunno why you say that as if the eye is making landfall right now, its still roughly 100+ miles out to sea and still has somewhat of a NNW heading, theres still at least 4-5 more hours for it to continue drifting and the eye can still totally clip the eastern part of the Island. Either way its pretty much irrelevant whether the eye barely misses the island by a mile completely or whether it landfalls 10 miles into the east end, the outcome and impact for a majority of the island will be nearly the exact same. Henri is still going to cause widespread, significant problems for the area. How far west it drifted had much more of an impact on the CT/Mass/RI area than it did LI.

You are wishcasting.

Unless the storm puts on a turn signal and makes a sharp left turn, The eye is not landing on Long Island.

Of course there are widespread effects outside of the eye.

But the thinking of a landfall between Smith Point Park and Southampton was off by 100 miles…I am glad to say

Eastern track guys/gals/models were correct.

That eye never touches LI

12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Correct me if wrong but i dont remember any model throwing this much rain out already. already FFW for parts of NYC

This rain should end before 11pm.

kind of got into a sticky territory because there’s going to be an hours long gap

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People are in panic mode right now

 

Supermarkets are packed and gas stations are insane and some are without gas.

Not in Westchester. I was just out for a leisurely dinner. Everything seemed fairly normal

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Would you consider Miller Place and Mt Sinai central or eastern?

 

theres a phycological barrier there that skews peoples thinking.

30 years ago, those areas were rural. The rural line was 112.

That isnt the case anymore. The rural line is really the William Floyd now…and it will stay there thanks to Pataki and his protected lands programs.

That said twin forks is its own area.

Eastern Suffolk begins east of Nicols Road imo

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Funny to see all the city guys hoping for a storm. All the LI people are praying it doesn’t happen 

On the beach in Wading River. Sandy had minimal damage for us. Even with minimal damage:

There was no power for at least a week

There was several inches of water in the basement with associated water damage

There was a sharp 6 foot drop at the bulkhead and the beach was destroyed.

Even Irene, Which was a nothing burger for the five boroughs… As the storm came through big branch fell off an old tree in North Flushing, right into a bedroom and killed a guy as he slept.

Long story short, you dont wish for a hurricane to hit your forum area

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

uhm with that track we're all getting it, remember a hurricane isn't a point.

 

That’s not true. That track is a Bob track with a much weaker storm. you need significant westward movement for all of us to “get it.”

Just feels like a late September early October rainy evening.

Very nice for a brief interlude