the_other_guy

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Not necessarily, there have been warmer than normal October and November in the past that lead to cold/snowy winters. The problem is when all 3 months (September, October, November) are warmer than normal, that it almost always leads to a bad outcome 

Correct.

The guys glossing it over by saying every winter is above normal are missing the point. using the new baseline, it still would be a warmer than normal winter.

Lets see what November brings.

This week is shot again.

Back above normal already, 80 tomorrow, 70s through Friday. It doesn’t signal a cool down or a pattern change, but rather a transient cool shot.

Let’s see how we do early next week. If late next week starts to look like 70 again, you know what we are dealing with…and it isnt good

31 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Not for you or me but if it is clear and no wind, those colder suburbs north and west will see it. Some did last night.

Next sunday-tuesday 

Only 57F at noon. 49F at 8am

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

was crazy-big pieces of LI sound frozen-haven't seen it since and hadn't really seen it before (going back to 1990 when I came here)

We lived on the Long Island sound since 1986… That is the only time we ever saw that

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Going to under perform today temp wise with these clouds.

 

Also under performed yesterday, vs forecasts on this forum.

Supposed to be widespread 80s right?

 

Not that it really matters… it’s warm

 

I take it back! Cleared and gorgeous! 

46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes that's how pathetic things have been. 

I think it'll be easier if we just recognize it's gonna be like this every "fall". 

Our climate is warm & wet. Time to deal with it 

This cool down is down to 3 days. That is the funny thing after all that.

Tues thru Friday look down right warm

Going to under perform today temp wise with these clouds.

Also under performed yesterday, vs forecasts on this forum.

Supposed to be widespread 80s right?

Not that it really matters… it’s warm

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

October  15 and I'm still wearing shorts

LoL

I haven’t put them away at all! New climate aint all bad

38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully, it’s rushing it and we flip in December. Climo for snow along the coast is a bit better 

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking too. We’ve seen this episode before. Warm oct-cold 6 weeks to start nov-warm up just in time for mid december.

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we’ll see if it holds this colder look for early to mid-November in later runs.

 

It’s interesting if this happens it would be exactly as AccuWeather or the weather channel ( i can’t remember) Predicted in the seasonal forecast…Which I usually don’t give too much credence

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

another warm  uncomfortable day shaping up for october 8.

There is nothing uncomfortable about this day.

Spectacular early September day

77F

61F Dense Fog starting to break. Another hour at most

59F at 930am

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont believe in this minimum fake heat.  I dont mind it being used in the "off seasons" but minimums should definitely NOT be used for describing hot summers.  The definition of a hot day is and should be, a day with a high reaching 90 or higher.  All a high min does is simply describe the amount of water vapor in the air not really heat.  A high min means more water vapor, not actual heat.  I, as a matter of fact, strongly recommend that when we calculate summer heat we ONLY use the high temperature to calculate averages, that would alleviate a lot of problems that come from water vapor taint.

I was shivering today, this was in no way shape or form a warm day!

But just a few days ago you said:

”anyone thinking next week is going to somehow be cool is sorely mistaken”

I took note of it because I said this week would feature cool days.

So did I win the chicken dinner or did you ?

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs has tons of easterly flow next 10-14 days. 

If this were March/April we'd be in the 40s with dreary conditions & gusty winds nearly everyday. 

But in October it's not so bad. 

When I pointed this out yesterday, I kind of got smacked down. Just sayin

Today has the feel of a hot summer morning. Very weird

Will this week feature that “cooler then expected during a warm spell” because the temp is not going to swing more than 5 degrees that we have become famous for?  Looks like humid and round the clock 60s? An xmas eve special :/

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Pacific Northwest dealt with such extremes at the end of June. Maybe this decade will see an extreme heat outbreak here. It will even be scorching hot under the dense foliage at Central Park.

Ironically, our humidity that’s coming with the warming is working again the extreme temperatures.

54F Glorious. Water rather warm still

8 hours ago, forkyfork said:

a top ten warm september area wide is a colder month? lol

Where did I mention September?

I’m talking about the posters calling off winter two days into January. “No snow this December” as the turkey is cooling off.

Frankly, after years of being on this forum, the technology isn’t there to predict whether or temperature trends three weeks out…and anyone that posts gospel based on weeklies is sensationalist or ill-informed.

Dont call off October on 10/1 based on weeklies that can and will change tomorrow

Little early to throw in the towel on October guys. What is it 9 hours old?

Might I add, with glee, that forecasts of extreme warmth through a colder month on this sub forum have been notoriously wrong and usually covered up with “the weeklies changed overnight” posts.

54F at 9am.

47F in SLC at 7 am✈️

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 0.25" rain through 12:08 pm, New York City's Central Park has now reached 10.01" rain for September. September is the record-breaking 3rd consecutive month with 10" or more rainfall. Records go back to 1869.

Absolutely disgusting.

Only thing worse would be that drought out west

Another warm September morning: 65F

56F this morning. Chilly, but warm wind signals change. 

Today is the first fall-feel day.