the_other_guy

No mixing along Hudson in Westchester yet.

I imagine those mixing in westchester are near coast

Moderate snow for a while now. Just wet. Even on cars. Too warm.

Snowing 35F

Edited as I typed wrong temp

Snowing. 31F

Haha. That Flash Flood Watch is really the fat lady singing for this thread. Or is it the first rain drop?

3-6

2-4

Now 1-3

And there are a whole lot of people south and east of me

15 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said:

That 3K MAM model is the best! How much milk is it showing for my morning coffee? Seriously though, this board will become less and less readable as GCC takes away more and more of our winter. That’s a prediction you can count on.

What is GCC? Never mind. Global Climage change.

Can we cool it with the acronyms guys?

 I mean that in the least offensive non-snarky way 

It’s not even a widespread acronym

24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

What a bust, looks like basically an all rain now for the city with highs around 50 tomorrow. Inland will see snow to maybe some ice to rain. All this tracking for this.

The models have shown this for days. They have been surprisingly accurate (if this forecast holds)

There was a poster in this thread questioning ABCs 47 and rain several days ago.

It was always there...posters just didnt want to see it.

I think there is a lot of looking for things that arent there in this forum.

If this plays out as forecast, it will be a mostly mix/rain event for city...which was exactly what was forcast on various models on Tuesday and Wed and Thurs and a good chunk of the day today.

Everytime there was a good run, guys latched onto it and discarded all the bad runs prior and after.

Too much emotion involved looking for something that likely isnt there.

I hope tomorrow is a snowy day...but if it is, it is dumb luck with a more southerly track. 

Yawn. 3/4 of an inch. Yawn.

Wasnt 2006-07 something like this? Not much snow to start and then a dusting one morning? Dont know why I remember that

14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Winter storm watch for NYC

 

3-6 inches of snow with some ice.

Yes they have 3 to 6 inches region wide...which is a bit of a joke given what the models are doing and how much variance will occur based on location.

I imagine when it comes to Warning time, city will get a WWA if they are lucky

Wonder if this pans out. significant icing situation for a huge chunk of the area

I also wanted to share this photo for its interesting snowfall pattern.

DelMarVa Peninsula approaching Ocean City on 1/15.

You can see the rain snow line from the last storm spared a small section of farmland.

Imagine this happening on Long Island? You south shore guys would go nuts!

Anybody starting to think FOK is off with the temps?

Very well aware of the geographic situation out there having a house nearby...but it seems to have become one of the coldest spots in the entire region on nights where radiational cooling plays a large factor. And despite significant development around that parcel of pine barrens over the last 20 years...the cold nights seem to have intensified.

Thoughts?

For those not familiar, FOK sits in the middle of Pine Barrens on sandy soil with the Atlantic just south, the Peconic Bay just NE. While the area may seem isolated, Long Island is relatively small width wise. Major towns such as Riverhead and Hampton Bays are in (relatively) close proximity

The airport itself is a former Air Force (now national guard) base that is very underused. 

51 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Very disheartening. Couple inches washed away.

I’ve been reading through 20 pages of posts for the last several days. What do you guys expect? Santa sliding down the chimney?

Every model posted here on nearly every run has shown mostly rain (or worse) for the coast, a mix just N and W (or worse) and all snow well inland.

Nobody wants to see it...but as an observer it has been plain as day for 48 hours.

Things change...but this thread also talks about the fundamentals not being lined up to make that change happen.

The storm thread is comical.

Bunch of warm solutions with guys grasping at anything that shows something cold.

I think we have reached the “bargaining” step in the Stages of Grief. Only two steps more to “accepting.”

Brilliant sunshine and 28F.

Never even a threat of a flurry

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes thats what I was thinking too which is why they mostly go wrong lol.

We haven't had many multiday events, I think December 2003 was the most notable one I can think of.  The last storm in January 2011 was multipart but not multiday.

 

I was just thinking of the 12/03 event.

It was fun...but never really panned out to all the hype of a 1-2 punch that was forecast.

It was supposed to be a snowstorm/blizzard combo. 

17 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

We need a big cutter to flip this pattern and get some higher heights in the NAO region. Looks like we’ll get that next weekend with a big rainstorm. I think between 1/25-2/1 we could see a somewhat more favorable pattern. Until then no snow in NYC aside of a flurry or shower. 

I believe this theory was also floated in early January with a cutter. 

Not saying you are wrong, but another poster said 1/20 is our “next chance” after this weekend suppressed.

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

On the flip side, 4 inches fell in Nov. 1995 and it was the snowiest winter ever.

4 inches fell Nov. 2002 and it was the 2nd snowiest winter.

6 inches fell 2012 and my area ended above average while NYC reached average.

So for every 1989, 2011 there are the above cases. Basically early snow has no affect on winter.

Your posting Nov snowfall history without context.

Look at the third week in November. If it falls after that that usually leads to an above normal season.

If it falls before that it almost ALWAYS leads to a well below normal season.

There have only been a couple of instances where the above scenario has led to above normal seasonal snowfall...And they were both well below normal snowfall winters except for one big storm. In one case...they waited til March.

We don’t have much iron clad history in wx, And what we do have seems to be getting shattered in a new climate. But this statistic is pretty hard.

Some winters have it, so don't.

This week is cold, with no snow.

Next week looks a bit warmer.

The ironic thing is that we havent had the extreme warmth (yet) that we have had in past winters. It has been a run of the mill warm winter. Very El Nino esque from mid December onwards.

I feel bad for guys waiting for a pattern change that always seems 10 days away. It may happen...or as is likely during these years, our winter may consist of what we have now plus 1 or 2 (if we are lucky) storms.

I take stock in posters pointing out the cold/dry; warmer/wet pattern. That has what we have seen since the end of November and continues thru this next cold week

Beautiful day in the Catskills. Sunny 40F

Surprised by the fog/must that starts southbound around Newburg

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If this pattern change progression gets delayed/slowed beyond 1/21 then we will be depending on February and March to produce at that point. If we look at past history, that’s definitely not a good situation to recover from. Still certainly doable but boy oh boy talk about the definition of backloaded and coming from behind 

You are not factoring in one-offs, which happen with increased frequency in January.

When your team cant hit home runs, you start manufacturing runs with small ball.

6 inches already in the books. You start picking up a few inches here and there (possibly 1/8) you go into Feb with 10 or 12 inches in your back pocket. A run at 30 with a favorable pattern looks better.

I cant help but think how many people on here would feel better if the 6inches that fell in Nov fell in Dec. But the reality is, we are at the same point with either occurence.

Historically, El Nino Februarys can produce...or not. Pretty even split. 

When can we stick a fork in calling it a “good winter?”

Meaning, if on 1/20 we get 6 weeks of snow and cold...is it still a “good winter?”

At some point we have to acknowledge that whatever happens past 1/15, a good chunk of winter was garbage, no?

Frost. 29F. Seems like a large temperature gradient across the region this morning

Very light snow. 32F

It started snowing as I read all the doom and gloom on here… Hopefully that means the doom and gloom is wrong!