the_other_guy

36 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Did you find February 2015 equally unsettling?

No, I found last February’s 75 degrees at 8pm equally as Unsettling.

2 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I disagree. December 2015 was at least historically warm enough to be somewhat enjoyable. This December has just been a chilly, dreary mess.

2015 wasnt enjoyable...it was scary. There was something genuinely unsettling about it.

This December actually had a great run of below normal temperatures for the first two weeks. It was preceded by a below normal November with snow.

It is now turned into a run-of-the-mill El Nino December and possibly a run-of-the-mill El Niño winter...Which aren’t historically great for New York City.

I see 97-98 a lot over the last few days. It was either 96-97 or that one that was filled with cutters. Mr G used to say “White to wet.” It happened all winter long.

That winter has been on my mind. Time will tell.

6 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

I hear what you are saying.  I cannot and will not dispute the “plan”.  All I am saying is didn’t we have a winter not too long ago when the popular phrase was “a week away” with respect to a pattern change.

Nothing is certain when it comes to weather  

 

Last winter. For 7 weeks, it was a week away. It did eventually come though.

patience is a virtue...

Not directed at you at all.

Just a general post...we keep talking about historical records with hope for January and saving the winter.

Look at all of history then. Early Nov snow, El Nino...history says we will see one or two moderate to big snowstorms (possibly very late) and have a lot of waiting around in between.

Generalizing El Nino in NYC ... warm, wet, stormy. Exactly what we are seeing.

At the moment, Stop looking at Decemeber through the prism of past years. If you wanted to use the prism of past years, our winter was screwed the minute we had 6 inches of early Nov snow.

It cant work both ways...you believe past is indicative of the future, you have to embrace it all...not just the convenient parts.

Back to this December, the pattern just isnt there. If the models posted by various users on here are to be used to facilitate discussion and predictions...the pattern change is 10 days away. And has been 10 days away for the past 2 weeks. Even the NYE snow is now a cutter

At what point is winter considered “saved?” Late January, Big February, Giant March snowstorm? All subjective.

At this point December thru Jan 7 looks gone. We will know shortly if that gets extended til Jan 14

We had a couple of weeks of subfreezing temps at night and several days below freezing.

I dont know how anyone is seeing flies, bugs or plants alive.

As for the Dec/Nov swap, the problem is the climatology doesnt allow for a winter month-autumn month swap.

You are trading an warm early winter month for a cool late autumn month. We dont get much to show for it.

Not lost in all this warming (as others have pointed out) Dec, Feb, Sept and October seem to be flash points for warming.

Nov, Mar and Jun seem the least affected and prone to BN departures.

Why is that? That is the big question

Pretty sure Dec 95 was had a white xmas

in NYC.

Had 8 inches or snow on around the 22nd.

Sometime around 2000 we had a rain to snow event that clobbered NYC on xmas day.

Last xmas, many of us a few miles north of city had a white xmas.

Just throwing that out there.

What has disappeared is the cold air around xmas week. But that is more recent then the 90s

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

December snow shutout incoming.   Pattern looks better in January, but we remain 10 days away still

It’s been 10 days away for a week now. I think we got into a dog chasing its tail situation last year during our 7 week winter break.

Im just happy most of xmas week will be in the 40s. You take the small things...

Lot of frost this morning. Right up there with the most frost I’ve seen the season

On 12/18/2018 at 10:01 PM, uncle W said:

in case Christmas is warm here are the other mild Christmas days...

year...max/min

1889....64 43 snowy March...

1893....58 45 Snowy February...

1900....59 44

1915....55 38 snowy March...

1932....59 47 snowy February...

1933....55 34 snowy cold February

1936....56 40

1940....62 38 snowy March...

1964....60 49 snowy January...

1965....59 47 snowy January...

1979....61 50 March snowfall...

1982....64 41 big Feb snowstorm...

1986....53 43 snowy January...

1987....53 48 snowy January...

1988....53 37

1994....59 41 Feb snowstorm...

2005....54 39 Feb Snowstorm...

2008....57 33 March snowstorm...

2014....62 44 50" snow season...

2015....66 57 big January snow...

2016....50 36 Feb snowstorm...

Growing up in Queens, I developed a rule

of thumb that worked well.

If I had to shovel around xmas decorations on the front steps...the winter ahead was a good or decent one. If I didnt, the winter ahead was not even decent.

For a kid observing this, it was shockingly consistent. Snow in Decembers leads to snowy winters.

This rule of thumb has been turned upside down in the last 15 years by huge storms.

2015 was a perfect example. Awful winter for snow before and after a historic storm...that melted almost as fast as it fell.

2015 could have easily looked like the 1995 el nino season. Our big storm that year gave us 10 inches of snow (ended as rain) for most of our season total.

Our big snows increasingly involve luck. If you dismiss the mid November snow as “threading the needle” or luck, look at what we have had thus far...bad timing, and now a lack of fundamentals, a questionable el nino. In other words, muddled

Lot of drama on this site over a warm week or two.

Looks like lots of days in the mid 40s to finish out Dec. So what?

Is this 2015 where flowers are still alive in the pots outside? Or do we have a hefty snow and lots of sub freezing nights in the books already?

Just to frame, the LR forecast didn’t forecast second half October cold, November below normal or cold start to Dec, yet the emotional swings with each swing of the LR du jour is rapid.

Enjoy the holidays.

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like our typical 50 degree + warm up around the winter solstice is on track. The only years since 2000 without one were 2010, 2009, and 2000.

 

NYC high temperatures 12-18 to 12-24 since 2000:

2017-12-24	55	0
2016-12-24	58	0
2015-12-24	72	0
2014-12-24	58	0
2013-12-24	71	0
2012-12-24	56	0
2011-12-24	62	0
2010-12-24	40	0
2009-12-24	39	0
2008-12-24	58	0
2007-12-24	61	0
2006-12-24	59	0
2005-12-24	55	0
2004-12-24	59	0
2003-12-24	56	0
2002-12-24	60	0
2001-12-24	58	0
2000-12-24	41	0

Man is that scary.

I said something last year to that effect...If you told me to bet 50 on Christmas versus 30 I would put money on 50.

There has been a spike in warm weather from the 3rd to 4th week in December almost every year in recent memory. 

Last year we got lucky many of us saw a white xmas with the start of a cold pattern and a quick 2 inches xmas eve.

58 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Christmas week passed ?

December passed?

You can be negative and it’s OK. I Agree with you...and you turn.

Something could happen Christmas week.  Doesnt look like it will. Temps look marginal in the 40s. Pattern looks like cutters prevail.

That sunday morning event was 1/6/14.

JFK closed after a plane skid off the runway.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/airplane-skids-jfk-runway-article-1.1566762%3FoutputType%3Damp

How about the Valentines Day sleet storm? I believe 07 or 06.

Still an “ice” storm.

That has to be the best sleet stom I ever saw in NYC and came at the tail end of a quiet winter.

But I do remember the 94 ice storm. Set the basis for a great winter! I was in 7th grade and never fell as much before or after as I did that year!

They fired a very high commissioner over storm.

Everybody is shaken after that

You don’t know what the mayor is going to do he is inept

CYA A good rule of thumb

Light snow in westchester this morning.

Is this the long awaited December snow storm I keep reading about?

10 hours ago, North and West said:

Never seems to happen though, you know? Had some mood flakes last Christmas Eve, which was nice. 

Last year was a white xmas for westchester and north 

Fair point, but El Niños featuring one or two mega storms usually goes hand and hand with warm weather, especially in December.

This has been a cold, dry pattern. It will be interesting to see how the second half of Dec plays out.

12 hours ago, Animal said:

I checked the 240 gfs.

shows minimal snow in nw nj.

mountain creek has all snow guns blowing.

i am getting deeply truoubled of a no snow plow December.

Laugh all u want. 

No one that does math will laugh.

This cold pattern has no snow.

14-22 look warm. 

That leaves just over a week for something to happen...if the forecasted cold returns.

The forecasts telling you about a stormy cold pattern the last week of Dec also said the snowblower would be running this evening.

You start running out of days in the month...

Not when snow occurs early in November.

There is a historic sharp line in the third week.

If major snow falls before that, the winter after has been relatively light on snow. There are a couple of exceptions...and they all involve one big storm. 

Again, there is no science behind it. Just historical precedent. 

Someone mentioned a lack of 6 inch plus November and Decembers...it goes beyond that.

1989...early November snow...meh rest of winter. 

Like every winter that had an early November major snowfall. A couple had 1 big storm...but most were below normal in snowfall.

Fighting history this year. 

12 minutes ago, North and West said:

That's how it goes sometimes. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

No, that was scary. And El Nino on steroids. If I never see a month like that again, it will be too soon.

Up at hunter today.

Around 4 inches on ground with a steady snow all day.

Spectacular November conditions. Perhaps the best I ever experienced in NE.

2 hours ago, North and West said:

 

Interesting to see. I don’t know nearly enough about the physics behind it, but it blows my mind how much these 10-15 day forecasts can change radically. I was all amped up for cold, and now it may not be that at all.

 

It *does* make me think twice about how much people put faith into knowing exactly what the trends/picture will be in 25/50/100 years from now.

 

I’m not discounting or questioning AGW or anything of the sort; more so the absolutism Of knowing exactly what will occur, whether it’s in two weeks or centuries.

 

.

 

Forecasts aside, the scope of below normal continuing would be unusual for the 2010s, and unusual for a sorta el nino year in December.

Also, historically speaking, a 6 inch snowstorm that early in November usually messes up snow chances for the rest of the season. Even if years ended up above normal in that scenario, it is usually associated with one big storm for the bulk of it.

Not saying that that can’t happen, but we would be buccing historical trends.

In other words, Buckle Up