the_other_guy

The 2010 patterns show us extremes; and show us extreme cycles

Frankly, I am worried about this huge negative departure followed by the possibility of a major warm up mid month (which is uncertain)

I cant help but feel this is too much, too early and if the 2010s extreme pattern holds, this is screwing us for late Nov and December...when we should be beginning our winter weather.

I supposed I should enjoy it while it lasts and blissfully pretend that history of early snow and 2010s patterns arent a harbinger of things to come... but that is a big pill to swallow

31F

First freeze

43F

Had to take the flag down 2 mins after it went up ...  quite windy  

67F here. Been 68 give or take .5 since mid day

7 hours ago, doncat said:

Yes sample size too small, plus there's no meteorological reason why getting an early snow would affect the following three months.

We have records going back to the 1880s

Nothing small about it. It is right there to see

11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I doubt there's any causality to early season snows vs how winter will turn out. 

Personally I'd love a Thanksgiving snowstorm.

Third week.

before that winter sucks. After that winter is good.

No science that I know behind it

Just looking at historical data

there was one winter with an early snow and AN for year...thanks to march storm

Be careful what you wish for

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

This weather has been great, aside from the few recent washouts.

Haven't even put my heat on yet.

After a cool down the first week or November or so, above normal temps look to return by mid-month.

Would be nice if we could hold onto those 60's for highs until Thanksgiving.

Really? 

You must like your house mighty cold up there in Mahwah then. I’m right across the river and we have had plenty of mornings in the 40s and 50s and that central heat is blasting when I wake up

Even this morning, when it was 50, it was on.

Not a ray of sun. Clouds still in place 61F. Brightening to the West

Im shocked at the sun and 70 reports just to the south...but nothing shocks me anymore!

41F at 7am

Colder than anticipated

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Didnt we have a severe weather event in January 1996 with temps in the upper 60s?  I remember that as well as a big supermarket roof collapse in Massapequa a week after the big blizzard.

 

It was Waldbaums. A week after the blizzard.

There was so much snow we still has snow cover after the rain event.

Friday event. 1/12/96

5 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are still averaging 57degs. or about 4degs.+ AN 

Month to date is +1.7[60.1].         Should be  +2.4[59.3] by the 30th.

58.4* here at 6am.

EURO Control Member is 'Cold' for Weeks 4,5,6-----mixed Weeks 1,2,3.    I make out November from this, as BN.   As we go into Dec., it may be going back the other way.    We'll see.

Your month to date departure keeps dropping

Just sayin’...

“Yet another 100° heat index today... this is really getting old!! We've never used the pool this late in the year, but records are meant to be broken I guess. A rhubarb gin & tonic helps take the edge off. ;-) #Miami “

See, I disregard this post as sensationalist garbage when you tell us you have never used a pool in late October in Miami.

Miami is swimmable year round with the exception of some cool shots that happen in the dead of winter. Always has been.

That’s why I fly full flights to S florida all winter long ✈️

37F coming up to 7am

Frost on car tops

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Get a space heater.

Heat will most likely be on by November 1

He doesnt have to. The law is on his side

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Making a prediction  for the upcoming winter in October is foolish. 

Most intelligent post in this thread

Wasnt it supposed to be 85F on Monday? 

What happened to that forecast from a week ago?

47F this morning

First time it has been that cool in a while

Stop trying to predict winter. It never goes well

I think this coastal low bodes well for us going forward

Second storm in a week...something that was elusive last winter

Moon beautiful this morning! 

53F at 6am...and that is AN for a low again.

It was a very cool storm from the air

I was flying the WATRS Tracks down to the Turks and Ciacos today. 

On the way down they kept us closer to the coast, But on the way back they sent us right up. 

She’s a monster.

Nice flying conditions behind it though.

I think we bust warm this weekend.

This airmass wants to go for low 70s without clouds.

16 hours ago, Cfa said:

On the ferry back to LI and it’s rocking back and forth almost violently at times, just enough for things to fall off tables and make standing/walking difficult. My view out of the window is alternating between 100% ocean and 100% sky. It feels like I’m in the Bering Sea. Kind of scary.

Long Islands downfall was never allowing a bridge (or two) to be built.

Now, with the NYC traffic surge, there is simply no easy way off the island.

Draw a line at the Meadowbrook...pick an east-west highway and sit in miles of traffic to get to an ancient bridge in Queens.

Or...that ferry

41 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Not seeing any 'below' average within 2 hours of the city. Data are data...

In fairness, that map is heavily skewed to the one 90 degree day we had.

If you took it out, temperatures would be slightly below normal because of this weekend. But that would balance out to above normal again at the end of this week. So your point is valid

13 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

You look at the small picture. Despite having the most population, the city is a small area with its own climate, especially at night. You go an hour outside the city (especially North and West) where it starts off in the 30s and 40s in most mornings now, the AN is bullshit. 

I’m in Westchester… I woke up this morning and it was 59.5° out ...well above normal.

We will be in that uniform temperature environment with BN days and AN nights for the next few days. 

once the storm passes it looks like we’re normal to above normal quite quickly.

They keep doing the smiley emoji at you...

But so far you have been spot on. 

A few cool days. This week is masked by this storm...but it is 60 at 7am. Sat thru Wed all look AN.

Long story short, this cool stretch isnt that cool

Nothing can top last year.

I never saw a peak color like that in NYC.

Happened first week in Nov

This year we already lost several trees to color and now brown (in northern burbs)

So whatever is coming will be minus those trees that peaked last week

Drought conditions?

If you go through a real drought here: when they shut off fountains, when firework displays are stopped, when lawn watering is rationed or stopped, when a Pope lands and it starts raining and he starts sprinkling his hands with glee...

You would never call a month of somewhat dry weather drought conditions.

Droughts like 1995 will come again. Then you will see how extreme drought conditions are

7am: 39F. Coldest day of the season thus far. 

What an extreme week...